Steve keen latest update. 2017 recession, 20-70% drop in house prices

I think I have actually posted a couple of economic giants that got it wrong, I don't know whether I can be bothered chasing these up.... take my word for it, they rarely get it right.

However, these people make a living from doing this stuff, same as Terry Ryder etc, year in year out I am sure he has many followers hanging on to every word.

All to their own.

 

And the newspapers/websites love to print the alarming headlines.

 

now we can put them all into one thread to make it easier to go back and compare.

 

.... but sometimes its important to pay attention to this and its up to us to determine market sentiment, this plays a major part in performance of property. If we start reading doom and gloom reports on Syd for example dig deeper, is there any truth to this?? At least this is how I play it, there are other signs that will also determine which way property will go but this is one not to ignore IMO

 

I do wonder how, if at all this effects him when he puts his head on the pillow at night realising he was the catalyst for influencing people to not buy and as a result have missed out or chose a lessor option, or is it 100% onus on the members of the public affected for being "gullible"?

 

Usually it's just the general "Australia market to crash" like it's all going to happen at the same time.
Click bait.

 

It was not just Keen's predictions, during 2007/2008 it was market sentiment/media coverage GFC that impacted on the market, many were in fear mode not sure how these circumstances were going to impact on property prices so investors in the main were sitting on their hands doing nothing

 

If house prices in Australia crash, cash in USD, gold and silver will not turn to crap.
I can already buy property in Perth 35% cheaper in USD than in 2011. (620k then against 420k now) wait a few years and it might be 50%.

 

I wonder, how many of you - property investors lived through a 70% house prices crash? I know, I did.

 

Anyone in the QLD market should be pretty well versed. Hundreds of properties on the Gold and Sunshine Coast retreated 10-25% from 2007 peaks. A decade later some of the higher priced stuff is still sitting below previous sales. Brisbanites will remember what people were paying for cookie cutter 3 and 4 bedroom project homes at Northlakes long before Costco and IKEA, now that was a BOOM.

Onthehouse.com.au: Your Home for Property Research

Onthehouse.com.au: Your Home for Property Research

Onthehouse.com.au: Your Home for Property Research

Onthehouse.com.au: Your Home for Property Research

Plenty more examples if you can be bothered digging around for more than 5mins. Our current PPOR sold for 730k in 2007. Three years later we purchased it after a bit of low balling for 590k.

 

I see 30%, I don't see 70%.
I guess the only ones who can tell what it feels to be in a 60-70% draw down are those who purchased in some mining towns and still hold. Everyone else thinks that it can never happen elsewhere.
But it does happen, I have seen it.

 

You have to admit that outside of these resource towns, 70% is a pipe dream to even the most bearish commentator. That's the problem with economists like Keen, if he just stepped back and focused on the fundamentals then people might have actually paid some attention.

 

I was thinking of the owner occupiers who may have been spooked at the time and have missed out on the recent upswing in Sydney and Melbourne. When I think about it we are all in the same boat, just making different decisions so its no ones fault but your own if you procrastinate and miss out and likewise if you get your timing wrong!!!

 

I'm paying attention.
I don't see a problem with an economist like that. He is the one who is focusing on fundamentals.
And he is right, the only problem I see is the time space, that is the hardest to predict. I'm waiting for the same outcome as he is - waiting for a crash. And we will get there sooner or later.

 

Yep. I didn't loose, but it was painful. Real life example, bought a 1-bedroom apartment in Moscow (Russia) (late 1997 for 38k) it dropped to 12k at the start of 1999, sold it for 49,5k mid 2004. The biggest city in the country - no mining town.
It happens, it just happens. It can happen everywhere - be ready.

 

He seems to get his predictions on housing wrong here, but i wouldn't discount him entirely.

Steve Keen is well known in Australia for being an economist who unsuccessfully predicted a housing crash - he is much better known in the rest of the world (teaches in London currently) for being one of the few economists who predicted the global financial crisis.

 

Where was that?

 

I would.

He has been waffling on for years about house crashes.

He sold his own house and since then the prices have gone through the roof, he is still bitter about it so continues to waffle on hoping one day he will be right. Even if they do drop they still will be higher than what he sold for

 

What a dingus.
Imagine if his students knew about his property predicting past.