SQM View: Risk of 20 to 30% fall from peak for Sydney Melbourne by 2020

From @petewargent twitter handle

Usually SQM is quite conservative in their projection and continuously missed their target of the extent of the fall we had so far. Its scary when they start projecting a fall of 20 to 30% from peak for frothy segments by 2020.

 

link from AFR
Sydney and Melbourne prices could fall as much as 30pc from peak prices

 

... what ... Frothy?

 

nah... only I am buzzing with that term,

Is it 'Fall from peak'?

 

Settle Kettle!
Reading your posts is like reading 50 Shades of Grey.
Porn for doomsayers.



Peak. Definition:
verb

1. 1. reach a highest point, either of a specified value or at a specified time

Peak consists of very few people. A great majority of people did not purchase at said peak. @Redom posted a few charts on Australians debt levels, which are only at 70%? of their capacity.

You can only ever do anything about where you are at.



The less time you focus on the circle of concern, the more energy you have to put into your circle of control.

For those few caught on the top. Either they'll find a way to recover, or at the worst, take away valuable lessons about buffers, strategy, and the dangers of following a crowd. Hopefully lessons they pass onto their kids.

The day mountains flip upside down, and 'fall from peak' means most people, that's the day I'll start worrying about 20% falls. Or not. Depends where I'm at.

 

Even if I agree with all that. If the idiot next door buys at peak and sells for a 200k loss, your house going down too.

Don’t underestimate the impact of what 10% of fools can do to 90% of normal people.

 

...were you planning on selling your house the day after the idiot next door?
Is your neighbour your child?

Are you retiring in the next 2 years?
And if you were, did you prepare for this?
Or were you expecting exponential growth from now until eternity?

It's a long term game. What does it matter what happens tomorrow 10 years from now.

There's a lot of monkey see, monkey do in the world.
PC is no different.
Which monkeys are you surrounding yourself with?

 

Although all those are fair points. They are totally unrelated to your previous post. Which was about not worrying about the minority who purchased and peak.

 

It doesn't take many to change the sentiments,
People don't sell at loss for fun, They sell it because they have to for whatever reason, What do you think is the reason this time?

The same fear which drives the price up drives it down, FOMO becomes FONGO human behaviour101,

 

Be like the British. Screw the minority.

Relax... take a tambourine.
We all turn to dust eventually.



Last night I finished re-reading 100 years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez.
Just like one of the many themes in the book.
History repeats itself.

Up. Down. Up. Down. Up. Down. Up. Down.
Calm your tits. Prepare. Ride the up-wave.

 

Well there are few monkeys but a lot of ostrichs,

 

Ok then.

 

Perfect!



@TheSackedWiggle, @mues, with all the gloom and doom talk. What actions have you taken to shift your position to leverage the events occurring around you?

Perhaps you're a self made billionaire and have a lot to share, genuinely I have no idea. All I've been able to do over the last 3 years is consolidate and more than double my income, preparing for what I am hoping is a 25% drop.

I spent 3 years meeting some older, more experienced monkeys to mentor me. Surrounded myself with savvier monkeys my age.

As my mum says. There is a solution to everything except death.


Shows how much she knows.

 

I genuinely believe what I write at least at that point in time,
I am open and adapt very quickly if I feel I err'd, I respect different opinion and learn from it to the best of my ability.

I think patronising and name calling doesn't make one right, just reveals their own deep insecurities.

 

Great book, I but this is a site and sub thread for discussing property market economics not self help.

Sharing data has little to with being calm or panicked. Personally I’m sold out of property except for some commercial, holding mostly cash and expect 25% + drop in syd/melb at which point I plan to buy a ppor. I might win... i might lose. I am interested in market updates and discussion regardless if they are positive or negative.

 

Fair call. I changed my approach prior to your post, however it seems you had already started responding.

I value your contributions to the site. Generates dialogue.

@berten I was responding to the 'scary' comment. I've been on this site for some-time, and although most were cheering the crazy growth, I observed the general consensus for the last few years was to expect a 20%-ish drop.

I never read the Where/What to buy sections. Perhaps all the bull-ish behaviour was in those threads.

As for everyone I have met in person from the forums, they have all been feverishly consolidating and preparing for these drops.

Some areas of the market may fall 20%.

1. They haven't yet.
2. There are markets within markets. Are boarding houses also falling 20%? What about Commercial real-estate? Are 1 bedroom apartments falling more than 3 bedroom apartments? What about 5 bedroom houses vs 2 bedroom. Inner-West vs Eastern Suburbs. What if it is next to a proposed infrastructure development.

What value is added by reading a blanket strategy? Genuinely curious to know how it facilitates strategy.

 

90% of people on here I felt didn’t see more than a soft landing or 5% drop.

I think I’ve been open here that my purchase where before the great boom. I’ve been buying stocks and other stuff the last few years because buying a house didn’t make sense to me. (Personal life, not just house price wise)

However now it’s becoming time to buy again sometime in the next year.

 

I am cashed up with majority of our borrowing capacity intact,
I have been waiting for two years now due to being valuation bear, narrowing down the suburbs for my low ball offers starting late 2020,
when you have guns loaded being on the sideline is not easy

When facts changes I change my tune even if its 180 degree, very publicly, no shame.

 

few years, really?
I felt even 6 to 9 months ago 20% was unthinkable here on PC, only select few were batting for it.

I clearly remember UBS article in late 2017 calling for end of boom was laughed at then even by some very respected contributors,
more recently few months ago Amp's call of twenty percent was ridiculed.