Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Timb89, 29th Jul, 2019.
Pretty bullish on both commodities. What's everyone else's sentiment?
Bullish on gold stocks. Gold will go up but I think gold stocks will outperform gold.
US Fed Decision which I believe is Wednesday night our time will be interesting for the short and long-term action in USD gold price.
Thoughts on silver? The gold/sliver ratio is historically huge.
Why do you say that stocks will out perform physical?
And yep! Wednesday to my understanding.
If a gold producer has margin at $750 USD and price of gold goes up $100 USD ( margin goes up USD $100 to $850 ) then % increase on the margin is 13.3%.
If price of gold is at USD $1,450 and it goes to USD $1,550, % increase is 6.9%.
GDX ETF has a collection of the largest cap gold miners. GDX ETF typically outperforms gold in bull run. That’s my understanding. Likewise GDXJ which has smaller gold miners.
Getting hot now, so not really an investing opportunity, rather a speculating opportunity.
Gold / silver ratio near all time high Gold to Silver Ratio - 100 Year Historical Chart. Implies one should sell Gold and buy Silver (similar to balancing equities portfolio).
Thus, Silver would probably be the way to go, but IMO Precious Metals are a hedge against hyperinflation (risk mitigation - sell jewelry to buy canned food type scenario) rather than an investment.
A lot more paper PMs are sold than what physically exist, so I would go for physical, except governments have been known to confiscate PMs in the past Gold & Silver Confiscation: Can the Government Seize Assets? (Video) - GoldSilver.com.
This video provides some great perspective.
Watch in the context of this chart.
Source: Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles on Twitter
The long-term Elliott wave count puts gold in a bear market rally since late 2015 - Primary wave ((B)) of an ((A)) - ((B)) - ((C)) three wave zigzag correction that started at the high of 2011.
Conceptually the diagram below is equivalent to the bull market comprising five waves up to 2011, Primary wave ((A)) down to 2015, Primary wave ((B)) from then to present day and potentially what follows.
Primary wave ((A)) was five waves down. Primary wave ((B)) was a zigzag with a triangle B wave and Primary wave ((C)) that is potentially coming is five waves down.
2011 to 2019 in greater detail.
Primary wave ((B)) in greater detail.
The following charts provide some very interesting perspective ...
I prefer gold miners, not gold though ( and only when the market conditions are right).
(source: Mike lehmann on Twitter)
What gold miner do you recommend? Newcrest?
Are there any good ones overseas?
In terms of producers I’m currently holding GOR, SBM, EVN, DCN.
SBM, EVN, GOR the better of these IMO ( lower risk ).
I like this set due to the low cost of production. High margin due to difference between production costs and price of gold in AUD.
Also hold the GDX ETF which gives me exposure to a broader set of producers.
Gold has been on tearing run, we started to publish a forecast for a bullish move in the newsletter in July.
It is now showing signs of being overbought in the short term and should pull back to at least the 1,400 -1,410 area.
Called it correct Alex ! Nice.
Very bullish Gold again now though.
Gold hit USD $1,500 overnight.
(chart via Northstar on Twitter )
For context Northstar on Twitter
Gold is powering along. USD $1547 and may break key resistance in USD $1550 to USD $1560 range.
I want a nugget.
I'd say gold has gone up because the US knocked off that Iranian military leader.
Trump, or a crony, probably bought up heaps of gold recently.
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