QLD Should we give up on Brisbane?

15 Blackburn Street, MOOROOKA QLD 4105 - Matthews Real Estate

43 Days Avenue, YERONGA QLD 4104 - Matthews Real Estate

34 Clara Street, ANNERLEY QLD 4103 - Matthews Real Estate

No matter what barometer you watch some area's are starting to move again..

 

... and most don’t commute by horse either .

Unfortunately, cars are a mandatory means of transport for most people in Brisbane.

I much prefer trains over buses. Walking distance to a train station is a mandatory purchasing criteria for us.

Walking distance to a bus stop will NEVER be on our list .

All the great cities of the world have great above ground/underground train networks. Brisbane doesn’t.

If you are worried about fire taking hold, spreading and doing damage, the map below shows that most of Queensland is not an option:

ARE YOU IN THE LINE OF FIRE? - QFES

You might have to sign up in Far Western Queensland .

 

Cars aren't a mandatory means of transport. The vast majority of people working in the CBD need viable public transport. That's rail or busway access. Good suburbs have this.

 

If that was true, then why did only 6.3% of households in Brisbane state on the latest Census (2016) that they have no car, DOWN from 7.3% in 2011 (previous Census) and DOWN from 8.5% in 2006 (penultimate Census).

It looks like it is becoming more mandatory for households to own one or more cars as the time progresses.

Then how do you explain this:

“Analysis of car ownership in 2016, indicates 54% of households in Greater Brisbane had access to two or more motor vehicles, compared to 51% in Australia.”

Brisbane has more cars per household than the average Australian household. Sounds fairly mandatory to me.

Number of cars per household | Australia | Community profile

That is not my definition of a good public transport system.

 

People want and need access to good public transport to get them into work in the city, even if they own 2 cars. Desirable suburbs have this. Undesirable suburbs don't.

Most properties in Mount Cotton cannot access the city by public transport. That's extremely poor.

I don't care if you want to live in the middle of nowhere with its inaccessibility, deadly snakes, and properties which will become uninsurable - but don't pretend that makes it a great "suburb".

Incidentally, I lived in Brisbane without a car for 4 years with no problems. This was because I lived in a suburb with lots of amenities and great transport links - you know, the desirable kind.

 

Would it be possible to name the area of Brisbane,also with the new high flow bike lanes from 10 klms out from the CBD inner south-side along the M1 will also add to the mix ..

 

But Brisbane does NOT have a good public transport system.

According to the latest Census, 5.8% of Brisbanites use the train to get to work and 5.3% use the bus.

66.2% of workers travel by car.

So, 6 times more people travel to work via car. A car is mandatory in Brisbane.

It is not a Mt Cotton problem, it is a Brisbane problem.

Incidentally, I don’t live in Mount Cotton.

I am just pointing out your BS is not supported by facts.

I do live on acreage (near Mount Cotten), in a street rated in the Top 50 Brisbane streets, out of a total of 16,671.

It is NOT in the middle of nowhere, it is NOT inaccessible as we have buses (but the service is crap like the rest of BRISBANE, so we have two cars), deadly snakes are rare to find and see (but you ignored that), properties will NOT become uninsurable and it is a great suburb (tightly held as people live there for a long, long time - we have been there for nearly 32 years).

It may not suit you but that doesn’t mean it is not great "suburb".

 

This is 100% correct......suburbs with easy access to work...services...transport will always outperform the market.

The only exception is if they have lifestyle aspects like near the Ocean...Water...etc.

 

Absolutely.

 

Yes...there seems to be some people who seem to forget the fundamentals of the property market...whether it is Sydney...Brisbane or Melbourne.

 

Show the stats to support how many people in greater Brisbane actually work in the CBD.

If you work at the hospitals, the universities (other than Gardens Point which has a shuttle bus from Kelvin Grove), any school, Gallipoli Barracks, any Westfields, most restaurants and shopping centres, any industrial estate, the airport, Port of Brisbane, any prison, any food processing centre, etc
you wont be travelling into the CBD.

 

Exactly and absolutely.

From memory, it is around 200,000 out of 1M.

So something like 80% of workers don’t work in the CBD.

But don’t let the facts get in the way of a story .

 

kierank,would you have a link to how you find the top50 streets ,is that within the BCC site or elsewhere as i just wanted to see if Rocklea is in there,have a happy year..

 

No - It is One Hundred Percent incorrect. The data does not support that. I had a long discussion with Michael Yardney on SS forum back in the days debunking the very same myth around "desirable suburbs will 'always' outperform undesirable suburbs and never heard from him again on that topic. His business model was supported by that 'fabricated' notion.

If you take the example of Melbourne, over a 20/ 25 year period, the top 10 suburbs had very similar growth in median as a percent to the bottom 10.

Each one of them were within 1% CAGR of each other between 1993/ 1997 and 2018. The median of Toorak, Brighton, Kew, Camberwell, Balwyn and Malvern as an example has increased almost identical to Frankston, Broadmeadows, Dandenong, St Albans, Hughesdale and Clayton.

Toorak's median in 1997 was $739k and it was $4.4m in 2017- an increase of around 6 times.

Frankston's median in 1997 was $94k and in 2017 it was $580k - an increase of just over 6 times.

Malvern had a median of $432k in 1997 increasing to $2.62m in 2017 - an increase of 6 times in median.

St Albans had a median of $96k in 1997 increasing to $580k in 2017 - an increase of 6 times in median.

Brighton had a median of $442k in 1997 increasing to $2.72m in 2017 - an increase of 6 times in median.

Dandenong had a median of $97k in 1997 increasing to $595k in 2017 - an increase of 6 times in median.

Back in the SS forum in 2008/09, I did the detailed comparison for all top 10 suburbs across Melb, Syd and Brisbane and in every single data set over 15, 20 and 25 year basis prior, the median increase as a percent were identical in both "very desirable" to "ugly ducklings". That alone changed my own strategy to move from investing in inner suburbs (Kew, Mont Albert, Hawthorn, Doncaster) to outer suburbs like Frankston and then in Rockhampton, Cairns, Hervey Bay etc. My portfolio from 2002 onwards (Kew, Mont Albert, Doncaster, Glen Iris) vs my Frankston portfolio on any given 5 year time frame have delivered similar growth, albeit with much higher yields from Frank.

Every bit of my research debunked that myth. I will try to source more and updated data for the top 10 suburbs of each city and compare that to 25+ years of data and post in a new thread as soon as I get some time.

The only exceptions are when you move away from a Metro suburb to regional. They are highly volatile and can generate 200% + return over a 2 year period and then remain stagnant for 15 years. My experience in Rockhampton (largely on the research done by @See Change) c 2004/2005 and then into Cairns proved that. Massive equity growth over a 3 year period in both cities followed by a long stagnation. Same in Hervey Bay. I bought a 4 bed prop next to beach on a large block with pool in 2005 and it still is worth what I paid for it 15 years ago!

Its' incorrect. The data does not support it. I will add that in a separate thread. The "fundamentals" backed by 25 year of data would debunk this myth.

 

I am not saying that Outer suburbs will not grow...just that you need infrastructure or it is coming. That is what I am getting into.

But if it is in whoop ...whoop....then it will find it harder to grow.

I think MY is very biased about inner suburbs....I disagreed with him many years ago ..... you are correct in saying places like Sunshine....Franger...and even Werribee/Wyndham shire have had similar growth.

But if you use Mt Cotton in Qld.....this not likely to grow as well..I can see Moreton Bay doing much better.

 

No, apparently you should be investing in the most undesirable suburbs, with zero transport links, and preferably a 40km plus drive into the City.

You must really regret investing in that nice Camp Hill with it's buses going onto the busway every 5 minutes, into the CBD and the hospitals in 20 mins or less.

 

Apples and oranges . Are there many acerage properties in camp hill ?

 

There’s more to this game than the growth reflected over 25 years. Like value to a bank as security, days on market/discount if it needs to sell, tenant quality and vacancy, land maintenance, property maintenance, value resilience in down turns etc etc the list goes on. All these factors affected by asset selection and desirability etc hence the MY approach.

Its fair to say though Brisbane transport sucks outside 10km radius unless you’re near a train. And its also fair to say there is desirable and undesirable locations and asset types in each ring out of Brisbane - ask someone in Pullenvale.

 

Are there many acreage properties in Sydney CBD, Manhattan or Kensington?

This must make Mount Cotton a great suburb.

 

My point is some people want an acreage property and you need to move further out of the cbd to achieve that . If you want horses and not to live on top of your neighbours you are likely to find mount cotton a far better option than an inner city suburb . I have no interest on mount cotton or acreage properties personally however I understand why they appeal to a lot of people , I’m not sure why you feel the need to trash particular suburbs because they don’t have frequent buses ( in my experience students and strugglers use buses , I haven’t caught one for years ) and laughable reasons like they have snakes.