Roy Morgan Unemployment 11%

Australian unemployment jumps to 11%

“The ongoing job losses throughout the Australian economy also provide clear evidence that the ABS unemployment figures released monthly lack credibility. ABS estimated unemployment of only 5.8% in February indicating a booming Australian economy which is also not reflected in other measures of economic activity.

“RP Data this week announced Capital city rental prices fell 0.2% over the past year, the first time in the 20 year history of the index to show a fall over a 12 month period while the latest ABS retail spending index data shows retail spending unchanged in February following a monthly rise of only 0.3% in January after also being unchanged in December 2015. A retail economy that has barely moved for three months is not indicative of the robust growth the ABS unemployment figures suggest".

 

Thanks for the share. In my dayjob I encounter Roy Morgan data a fair bit.

All reports and datasets that RM produce are derived from the same one source. Their taxonomy/methodology is quite robust and their sample size is decent.

However, I'm not convinced that either RM or ABS data are accurate when it comes to unemployment rates. Things like under-employment, part-time, casual, and contractor role statuses need to be considered too, in their data composition.

If we are talking about pure unemployment (as in, of working adult age and simply not earning money in any form or level of employment at all), I'd imagine the real figure might be somewhere between the two figures mentioned by the OP.

 

seems like it maxes out around this range during beginning of the year then goes down.

Perhaps this year might be the year it breaks the pattern

 

can't say I've ever come across this definition of unemployment before...

 

Hi Sanj,

There is a significant difference between total unemployment and 'underemployment'. There ought to be greater focus on underemployment. That is the figure that political parties and governments like to shy away from as these numbers have been quietly growing over the past few years. It is a much scarier number than simply 'unemployed' people, so it shouldn't be ignored!

 

Justin Fabo‏@justinfabo
Look out below. #ausecon

 

I completely agree with you that the underemployed are not accounted for atm but your definition of unemployment still isn't correct imo as it would include people taking a break from work, students being funded by their parents, people living off savings or a settlement of some kind, stay at home parents, whoever. .

 

Agree with this sentiment, what isn't reflected in the ABS stats at all (no idea if they're in the RM stats) is those who stop looking because they've given up. The ABS is very quick to cull you from the employment force side of the equation for those who give up but are still by any measure unemployed which greatly deflates the overall unemployment rate. It's hard to really come up with a system that catches everything. It's hard to catch those categories you mention fairly.

Underemployment though is absolutely the bigger "cancer" in society right now and is being used to greatly distort the employment figures in Australia. The fact that average full time wage is up around 85k in Australia but the actual average wage is down around 55k should support just how many people are grossly underemployed.

 

Agree with your sentiments towards underemployment. With the increasing deregulation and casualisation of the workforce it's becoming more difficult to find stable full-time jobs. As for the 'stopped looking because they've given up' the only way to measure it is by looking at the labour force participation rate. In February 2016 total employment growth was zero (well 300 net jobs). Unemployment fell from 6% to 5.8% because the participation rate fell by 0.2 points – thus the idle labour arising from the weak employment growth just left the labour force and is now hidden unemployment. Working hours fell further – the trend is flat and has been for the last few years.

 

Unemployment fell to 5.7% in March 2016 according to the ABS, which sounds great. Yet when you actually look at the figures they aren't as rosy.
Unemployment falls to 5.7pc as 26,100 jobs added

"Official figures estimate 26,100 jobs were added in March and the unemployment rate fell to 5.7 per cent.Bureau of Statistics data show the jobs growth was entirely in part-time work, with 34,900 jobs added, while full-time employment declined by 8,800, seasonally adjusted.This shift to part-time was also reflected in the number of hours worked, which slipped by 17.5 million to 1,632 million in March".

The participation rate remained the same at 64.9% but it was down from 65.1% in January and hours worked are also down from January 2016. Therefore, underemployment must have increased.

 

Is there any evidence to suggest that the increase in part time may be voluntary? I was under the impression that we were having somewhat of a baby boom over the last few years

 

Australians are actually having less kids.


I got a 2nd job the other day (my current job doesn't have enough security), which was classified as permanent part-time. When they said part time I was expecting to work 2-3 days a week. Turns out it's only 1 day a week. I know I don't represent the whole economy or anything but a lot of people I know are having similar experiences with gaining employment, but not enough hours.

 

Hmmm... you need a second part-time job to top up your first part-time job....

 

Yep it sucks.

 

I think it only 'feels' like Australia is having another baby boom due to all the press about overcrowded schools in some parts of Sydney and Melbourne, as well as coverage of a few suburban areas where birth rates are indeed high.

But it must be all smoke and mirrors!

 

Well, 2 of the girls in my volleyball team last season are currently pregnant, another who left at the end of last year is pregnant, and another player has just come back from having a baby.... this all affected our results from last comp and now we have to find new players to replace them...