QBE: Australian Housing Outlook Report 2015—2018

Thought a few might find this interesting?

Housing Outlook 2015-2018

National Report and State-by-State predictions.

 

Screenshot of the summary. Interesting that Adelaide is that low.

 

They're predicting units in Brisbane to rise in value?

 

Thanks

First time a report actually identified growth for Perth during 2013-14, seems to be missed by many

 

consistent, though mining has had impact but may be best performer we are talking 2016-18, z Syd and Melb have had boom cycles already so you don't get boom, boom, it's boom-bust

Qld - affordability is key in their opinion..SE, bread and butter areas

 

Think its coming from the rise in Gold Coast units.

 

They will. The new stuff is more expensive than the old stuff.

So Brisbane it is then.

 

think so
bugger units, I mean this in a nice way, buy deve sites when markets start to rise, it will provide best growth. developers start to jump in and land prices move much faster. You don't even need to develop as land continues to rise due to demand and limited supply...perfect storm

 

One may argue that whilst Melb has had textbook boom-bust, in Sydney it has only ever historically went boom-boring. By boring I mean very flat and non-volatile/growing/busting.

 

nope, go to SS forum, read posts by Seechange he was buying in the bust cycle in Syd around 2004, blue chip did not go boom-boring. It fell back significantly, areas such as Manly, north shore, yes blue chip would you believe.. another myth.

A 20% drop in value is a bust cycle.

Also I would look at Oz wide...history over last 20 years, similar scenario, possibly different reasons for a bust cycle, however what follows a boom is a bust.

MTR

 

The QBE reports are prepared by BIS Shrapnel. They have a very poor track record with their forecast (aka prediction for growth)

Go here Publications and Presentations | QBE LMI
And check their forecast back in 2012 for the 2013-2015, in this http://www.qbelmi.com/Uploads/Documents/2a44210c-ae3a-437a-981e-df7b64d5f65c.pdf

In Oct 2012, BIS Shrapnel were forecasting growth for houses in 2013, 2014 and 2015 :

• Sydney 3%, 6% and 7% ( so total 16% growth for the 3 years)
  
• Melbourne 1%, 1% and 2%
• Brisbane 4%, 8% and 6%
• Adelaide 1%, 2% and 2%
• Perth 6%,8% and 6%

I purchased a Sydney property in April 2013 and sold in April 2016. No major or cosmetic reno was done on the property. The median house for the suburb from Price Finder were 8%, 30%, 29% (2013-2015). My actual sales price minus the purchase price matches the exactly when the numbers were added together for the 3 years I held it.

Basically shows how much they're off with their forecast.

 

I personally don't place much emphasis on reports. I look at them only for a broader outlook but that's about it. Reports cannot take into consideration how the individual investor negotiates with buying, how they may add value, buy in gentrifying or under valued areas, bmv etc so to me they have very limited use, mainly to keep my eye on broad movements/market sentiment but that's about it.

 

did not realise it was BIS that prepared this...mmm
OK,best we do the opposite of what they say. I am going to go nuts and buy in Perth, even mining towns