Property Market Watch - Upturn

Starting a thread to monitor the general market trends in different areas around Oz. The purpose of this thread is to look ahead 6-12 months to forecast what may eventuate based on current data sets, market trends, on the ground observations, fiscal and monetary policy, credit analysis, economic trends etc.

Offcourse not all cities, regions, areas and segments are the same. We had had muti-speed and directional markets for a long time. But it appears some of the cities / sub-regions bottomed out around May/June and have now been steadily increasing for a few months.

 

Massive result on rising volume.

Same time last year, using the same methodology it was 48%.

What a change from dec when it was about 35% and there were calls of further 20, 30 40% drops and 2,3,5 years of downturn...

 

It is clear for now that Syd Melb have bottomed and there are small increases. Bris, Perth - other two markets I follow also seem to be stabilising.

What is the opinion going forward for your city / region?

How do you guys see this playing out? how much increase, and for how long (and which location)?

My opinion : def DONT see a sustained full blown 2009-2017 cycle playing out in syd melb with ~130% increase in overall median.

Bris Perth - when economy improves plus low rates are prob better picks for full cycle growth??

 

I think Melb and Syd will bounce to roughly old highs over the next couple years, then sideways until fundamentals gather enough steam to cause another boom.

All bets will be off if we get a serious global event/recession, which I don't think is a doomsday prediction, since we are somewhat dancing around one at the moment.

Either way, holding good sized chunks of land in decent areas of these capitals is unlikely to turn out bad over a 20-30yr timeline.

 

A good example here
9 Hylton Crescent Rosanna Vic 3084 9 Hylton Crescent, Rosanna, Vic 3084
9 Hylton Crescent, Rosanna
Sold 9 Hylton Crescent, Rosanna VIC 3084 on 20 Mar 2018 - 2014160247 | Domain

Sent via the Domain App
Basically the same price as Mar 2018

 

Can only speak for Brisbane, I can only really agree with what BIS oxford have put out recently that we will see around a 20% increase between 2019-2022. Some others are more optimistic predicting 30%.

A few Factors that could support increases

- Current Interstate migration levels
- infrastructure spend
- Projects like queens wharf, cross river, Brisbane live etc
- Oversupply being soaked up
- low rates on all ready affordable prices/lending being less of an issue.

On the ground there’s a lot of confidence, agents can’t get enough stock and things are selling fast. There’s not quite enough competition just yet to really drive prices across the board but people are well into multi offers on good stock

As a future thought A lot of suburbs are limited to zoning rules, Im guessing as population picks up this will change in area’s and will lift pricing if you can split 600sqm blocks which are everywhere. Could be a long way away.

 

Bill Evans (Westpac) predicting MELB/SYD 12% up by end of 2020.

Pete Wargent Daily Blog: The outlook: less building & a retail recession!

 

Hobart is starting to pick up after being dead at election time .

Cliff