Property Boom is Over, what's in store for 2016

This is a good read by M Yarney, reports what actually happened in 2015 ....

Predictions, well I think he has hit the nail on the head IMO.
I like Melb, and already mentioned believe its the safest bet today and moving forward as per article.

The property boom is over, but what's in store for 2016? - RealestateVIEW Blog

The property boom is over, but what’s in store for 2016?
Most predictions will be wrong. How do I know?

Because they always are.

Twelve months ago no one would have predicted the Reserve Bank dropping interest rates twice in the first half of the year fuelling our already hot Sydney and Melbourne property markets.

Similarly, at the beginning of last year few predicted how APRA’s measures would constrain investor lending, even thought it had already started wielding its stick.

...

 

By safest bet, do you mean Melb is the best city to continue looking to buy in?

 

Melbourne has been booming since 2013, my guess is we are closer to peak now.

I think moving forward Melb has highest immigration and strong economy so I believe it will still be a good market for long term hold which is what most on PC do. If you are looking at other strategies, ie flipping, developing then you need to be very selective on areas as with any market that has boomed.

There are still some affordable areas in Melb, which are in the middle ring 12-15 km from CBD that may be worth investigating further.

 

Any thoughts on when Perth is likely to stabilise?
Prices have dropped but so have rents, if yields were improving I would like to get in but not yet.

 

That is the $1M question and have been asked many times, as have others I am sure on this forum.

Perth is dependent on mining and that has gone. Job losses continue to plague this State. I know so many engineers that can not get jobs, until we can create jobs its going to continue to fall or go sideways.

Unfortunately, bust cycles last much longer than boom cycles.
The answer is not anytime soon unless our economy improves.

 

Huh?

Well I'll choose to apply that part to his above statement then.

 

If I was to guess, I would say that Yardney surmised that inner City property always performed better than properties further out.
Even if it wasn't always the case.
And blue chip. And investment grade. And maybe a link to his wealth retreat.

 

Yes he is a huge advocate for blue chip, I disagree with this and have said this many times.

However his comments in this article have nothing to do with blue chip property.

We should review his predictions at the end of 2016, we are 6 months along and I think what he is saying is spot on.

We won't know know how Brissy performs this year until it actually booms? He has stated it is moving but it won't be the next hot spot, we will have to wait and see.

 

I dare say he's not buying there for his clients.

 

I don't know, I assume he is

 

I've only seen him talking up inner Sydney as blue chip or investment grade.
But maybe.

 

Dont you think its too late for Yardney to come and say prediction 2016.. We're in June 2016 now???
Perhaps in 2017, he wants to refer back to this article and saying "I told you" with cheeky smile

 

Darwin might bottom out at the end if this year...but it can only be temporary as the gas plant construction will start winding up soon after. Gas plant employs 8000 people at the moment......

 

Pretty accurate I think. Although I would be more bullish than he is on Brisbane if only for the wealth transfer arbitrage effect from Sydney and Melbourne owners to "the next spot". Also he makes no mention of Gold Coast which should perform very strongly next few years.

 

Sales prices and demand at opens doesnt bear that out very accurately. LOTS of investor activity, reminds me of western sydney circa 2010

 

Great post MTR

 

interest Dave, is it the lower end? sounds like the beginning of a rising market, is it mainly investor activity

 

Mainly investors in the low end up to 350k, above that its owner occupiers or developers for a larger lot.

 

I don't think I have seen any of your post where you are not pumping the gold coast.

 

Doing my best to help you guys make some money ...