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Professional BS Detector

Discussion in 'Living Room' started by MTR, 9th Dec, 2015.

  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    How good are you at recognising professional BS?
    for copyright reasons have summarised.

    According to researchers:

    Not all BS is obvious. The best BS is the stuff that becomes accepted wisdom.

    Statements like — ‘in the long term shares always go up’ or ‘money in the bank is dead money’ or ‘negative gearing saves you tax’ or ‘property values never go down’, or its only 'a paper' loss, its only a real loss if you sell.

    If it’s said often enough it becomes an established fact.

    The PR machines for the investment are BS masters. They take a kernel of truth and repeat it over and over again until it supports the industry’s agenda.

    Most investors make decisions based on ‘first-level thinking’. They accept the standard BS as fact without applying critical analysis to the statements.

    While markets have demonstrated certain characteristics, there is no guarantee the future is going to be a repeat of the past.

    ‘Cash is dead money’ is just another piece of BS propaganda aimed at convincing you to buy whichever product the investment or property industry is trying to sell you.

    Sure there are times when cash is better off being invested in assets with growth potential. But when those same assets are in an environment where they are more likely to shrink than grow, it’s better to be in cash.

    The old chestnut ‘property values never go down’. If you live in Sydney and Melbourne, Perth you need no convincing of this.

    Apply a little second level thinking to your investment decisions and you’ll find your ******** detector is a lot more receptive than it used to be.


    MTR
     
    Last edited: 9th Dec, 2015
  2. Wukong

    Wukong Well-Known Member

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    I prefer the phrase cash is king :)
     
  3. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    I love calling ******** soon as I hear it come out of a persons mouth. It's like Tourettes. I can't help myself. My wife gets embarrassed at times, then giggles later.
     
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  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Me too, cant help it.:)

    but many people believe the prof BS, and form strategies using BS
     
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  5. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I like cash is Queen:)
     
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  6. Xenia

    Xenia Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Here's the thing
    Never make a descision based on information someone told you.

    How does that thing fit into your own personal goals.

    What works for one person does not work for another.
     
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  7. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    Gotta love "negative gearing, it saves you tax..."

    I sure as hell hope that I wouldn't get taxed on any losses as well as my income.
     
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  8. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Reminds me of some of things which are professed as wisdom on this site.

    M BS detector is extremely sensitive..... :p
     
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  9. teetotal

    teetotal Well-Known Member

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    2015-11-19 16.48.50.jpg I usually carry this with me all the time :D
     
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  10. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

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    Got to admit that I have dished a little of it out over time. I seem to pick it up when it comes my way. "Sir, I believe this BS belongs to you, please save it for your next fishing trip "
     
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  11. devank

    devank Look, lets just get on with this, ok? Premium Member

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    I have seen graphs supporting this arguments using ASX100 or whatever. I always wonder what happens to any collapsed companies like OneTel. Do they include that or simply drop off from the list?

    Well.. Is the opposite more true that this statement?
    It is true for people paying 37% margin tax. It is fine as long as the capital value increases more than the loss.

    What is wrong with this statement? Again, as the value increases over long term, what is the issue?

    We can't 100% correctly predict the future mainly because we don't know all the factors affecting the outcome. All we can do is, make our educated guess based on historical sales data, market trends, economic statistics and external factors.
    Of course, there are many doggy studies produced by unethical people. That is not the fault of statistics. Any study should be reproducible (provide original source and codings) by people in the similar field.
     
    Last edited: 9th Dec, 2015
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  12. Soul

    Soul Well-Known Member

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    My favourite, I had this on my desk in one of my previous jobs.

    upload_2015-12-9_21-50-35.png ..******** detected..stand clear!

    My way of detecting..when someone is over friendly, trying to be very polite and showing over confidence and boasting success..and they keep repeating without any substance..the bell in the head goes ting tong.

    I recently met a spruiker showing me why their strategies beat buy and hold by a wide margin year over year...no examples. Gave them a chance explaining how they can help me. Asked again to show evidence ..They said i will be shown everything when i join them..$$$$$.
     
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  13. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    @devank

    in long terms shares go up, they go down and they go sideways

    negative gearing = shortfall, losing money from day 1

    paper loss is a loss

    it's just fact not BS that is the point

    It's your choice what you do with this information


    MTR:)
     
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  14. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Property doubles every 7-10 years- WTF!
    In the long term shares go up - lazy brokers love this one almost as much as their even lazier clients.
    Like everything in life good brokers can think for themselves and act accordingly.
     
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  15. Rixter

    Rixter Well-Known Member

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    I like the BS one about its the Land that appreciates.....

    Land, Villas, Townhouses, Duplexes, Houses, Apartments etc - all these are purely different types of commodity.

    IMO and contrary to popular belief you see thrown around in the media/elsewhere, it is not the land that determines growth - it's the 'demand/supply' equation for a particular commodity that determines its value. Otherwise land out in Broken Hill would be the same value as land in Sydney's inner east. This is also why townhouses/villas CG can out strip house CG in a particular area.

    Ultimately its the supply & demand ratio for the commodity at hand that determines capital growth.
     
    Last edited: 10th Dec, 2015
  16. BigKahuna

    BigKahuna Well-Known Member

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    Xenia, I really like yours--always make your own decision. You give your power away once you entrust someone with your money to do with as he wishes (or as he tells you). I don't believe anything anyone tells me re investing. I do it my own way, even if my way is not sophisticated. I just plod along. Do lots and lots of homework first, tread carefully, second-guess everybody's advice.
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    BK
    you have certainly been doing something right because it's working well:)
     
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  18. Xenia

    Xenia Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Yes I know - no one was there to tell Big K whether she was doing it right or wrong. She just did it intuitively and she's one of the most successful investors on here.
     
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  19. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Ugh, I've had brief conversations with people who are convinced of this strategy with 1 IP.
    Ask them a couple of probing questions and give up, there's no changing their mind.
     
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  20. EN710

    EN710 Well-Known Member

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    For any statements, there are always exception to the rule, so a matter of checking the facts.

    I'd say the BS I hate is the 'smooth' sales spiel. I know it when I hear it and sometimes surprised that the other party genuinely think they're that subtle and that I don't know. Ask direct, sharp question and you'll see them becoming defensive and starting to pressure you 'smoothly'.
     
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