Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community

Predicted Population Growth

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Sunny Bill, 23rd Sep, 2015.

  1. Sunny Bill

    Sunny Bill Active Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    29
    Location:
    WA
    I have been reading the report at the link below regarding predicted population growth in Australian Cities.

    https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/soac/

    Based on this information between 2012 and 2031 Australian cities are predicted to have the following percentage of population increase. Perth is predicted to overtake Brisbane as Australia's 3rd largest city.

    Perth 71%
    Brisbane 48%
    Melbourne 41%
    Sydney 33%
    Adelaide 23%
    Hobart 14%

    Extending the figures out between 2012 and 2061 the predicted population increases are:

    Perth 187% (Population 5.4 million)
    Brisbane 118% (Population 4.7 million)
    Melbourne 102% (Population 8.5 million)
    Sydney 82% (Population 8.4 million)
    Adelaide 50% (Population 1.9 million)
    Hobart 25% (Population 270,000)

    My question is what importance do you place on this information when making your future investment decisions.
     
  2. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,840
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I'd have less confidence for the 2061 projection obviously too far out in the future. I'd also not agree with the numbers for Perth topping the list of % growth; too highly leveraged on one industry whilst still having a relatively high buy in price- can't see population following for this. Did they say what the drivers are behind the numbers?
     
  3. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    326
    Location:
    Sydney
    So the report was based on 2012 estimates at the height of the mining boom. Fast forward 2015 when the ABS said population growth was actually slower than estimated, especially in the mining states.

    Are you trying to sell Perth properties?
     
    spludgey likes this.
  4. Sunny Bill

    Sunny Bill Active Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    29
    Location:
    WA
    From what I gather the report is based on information from 2014. No I am not selling Perth property. I am an investor and it appears to me that population growth is one of the main drivers of property prices, which is why I asked the question "what importance do you place on this information when making your future investment decisions". Waterboy, obviously you have doubts about the projected increases in the report. Therefore where could I get reliable information in relation to population growth?.
     
  5. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    268
    Location:
    Brisbane
    You can't. A few years ago, Brisbane was set to overtake Melbourne and catch up to Sydney in 2030 or whenever it was as Brisbane growth was the highest at the time. Perth was growing quickly a couple of years ago, so they are now the ones set to overtake X and Y by Z :rolleyes:

    These long-term projections are just for entertainment factor, and nearly always looking in the rear-view mirror. Nobody knows with any certainty. Just like the Economists that will tell you the oil price will be $x, or the AUDUSD will be $y at point X (well after the trend is established either up or down:rolleyes:) which have been proven to be wrong over and over.

    I agree that population growth is the single most important factor for general property growth, but as for predicting it longer than a couple of years out, good luck.
     
  6. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    688
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'm calling BS on Perth. That was probably with a never ending mining boom.

    Edit: @Waterboy beat me to it.
     
  7. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    268
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Sad thing is Government didn't see that coming either.. Or didn't listen to those that said don't be silly - Chinese growth will not continue at its same rate for too much longer.
     
  8. Heinz57

    Heinz57 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    493
    Location:
    Brisbane
    That's it I'm moving to Coochimudlo
     
  9. DanW

    DanW Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    26th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    400
    Location:
    Sydney
    It all depends if US goes to war with China, and also who Japan ends up going to to war with.. and if Australia annexes New Zealand
     
  10. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,394
    Location:
    Mt Druuiitt
    I wouldn't mind moving to cooch
     
  11. Heinz57

    Heinz57 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    493
    Location:
    Brisbane
    It's "Coochie". And you may not be old enough.
     
  12. datto

    datto Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,394
    Location:
    Mt Druuiitt
    Cooch sounds better
     
  13. Heinz57

    Heinz57 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    493
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Should confuse the Japanese / Chinese when they invade us, like your thinking
     
  14. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,840
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Australia's annexation of new Zealand will be a bigger liability than Russia's annexation of Crimea.
     
  15. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo renovating Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,822
    Location:
    Central West NSW
    The prediction for Tassie is hilarious.
    Wouldn't you think that some of the millions on the mainland would want to get away from all the masses?
    I'm sure we all know that Tasmania was long considered a place where people had 2 heads, 3 eyes, 6 fingers, etc.
    Look at it now. Artists, retirees, greenies, gays.
    The mainstream is not far behind.
     
  16. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    326
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'd retire in Tasmania. or New Zealand.
     
  17. timetoact

    timetoact Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    143
    Location:
    Sydney
    This is also a bit old now but worth a read.
    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/na...-get-real-on-population-growth-20131129-ij9ym

    Personally I agree that Melbourne will over take Sydney purely because they have more land to easily expand into. But for this same reason Sydney property prices will continue to out perform.

    As for Perth, can't see the numbers you posted happening. Brisbane will stay in 3rd spot but won't push for 1st or 2nd.
     
  18. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    2,124
    Location:
    FNQ
    Those projections change all the time. Melbourne's population is likely to rival Sydney's while Brisbane will grow qiucker Perth. It wouldn't suprise me for the Gold Coast to eventually be larger than Adelaide (very long term).
     
  19. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    925
    Location:
    Adelaide
    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/3101.0Media Release1Mar 2015

    Australia's population growth rate has slowed to a rate last seen nearly 10 years ago, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

    "In the year to March 2015, Australia's population growth rate continued to slow from its peak in 2008-09 and is now just below the 20-year average growth rate," said Denise Carlton from the ABS.

    "The Northern Territory recorded its lowest growth rate in 11 years, at 0.2 per cent for the year ending March 2015. This is 80 per cent lower than that of March 2014. Net interstate migration losses were the greatest contributor to this slower growth, with the territory recording its largest ever interstate migration loss in the year to March 2015," said Ms. Carlton.

    "Western Australia also recorded slower growth. In the past two years, net overseas migration to the state has dropped by 71 per cent, while net interstate migration has dropped to the point where the state has seen a net interstate loss. This has not been seen in over 10 years in this state."

    "Victoria and Queensland were the only states recording a net gain from interstate migration."

    Australia's population grew by 316,000 people (1.4 per cent) to reach 23.7 million by the end of March 2015.

    Net overseas migration contributed 173,100 people to the population (16 per cent lower than the previous year), and accounted for 55 per cent of Australia's total population growth.

    Victoria continues to have the fastest population growth rate in the country, growing by 1.7 per cent (97,500 people).
     
  20. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    268
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Seems like with WA and NT, people are returning home as the jobs dry up (maybe to VIC or QLD :p). 12 years ago everybody was fleeing VIC, how things change.