Positive thoughts re Corona Virus

Two things have happened in the last two days that were somewhat reassuring .

One official ( credible - not trump - though can't find link ) came out and said that the disease doesn't seem to be as severe as first expected . From what I can seen the deaths in the west have been all elderly , unwell , while there were some deaths of younger people in china initially . If that's the case , then it may pan out to just like " the worst flu season ever " ( excluding the Spanish flu )

Second , China seem to be pushing to get everyone back to work . They've had the most experience with corona virus . Obviously they've made the decision that what ever the consequences of the illness , the fallout from a stalled economy and the subsequent problems , economic / social and political unrest arising from that are worse than sending people back to work and having a flare up of the virus ( which is probably what will happen ) and all the consequences , social , political etc associated with that .

They're caught between a rock and a hard place and there's not to many regimes in the world who would be " brave " enough ( or authoritarian enough) to take that decision at this point in time .

In reality that decision is probably good for the rest of the world as some much of the world relies on manufacturing in China . Be interesting to see if that changes after this ( Bring back Holden ....)

Cliff

 

Positive note - wealth transfer from the old to the young when the corona virus hit the oldies?

That is a Friday joke - I am going to hit my corona beer. Cheer!

 

From the figures I have seen (WHO and other apparently reliable sources), for 80%+ of those affected the disease is relatively mild.

Severe symptoms, hospitalisation and death seem to be more confined to those elderly, especially those with pre-existing illnesses or low immunity.

Of course there will be exceptions.

And yesterday, reported new cases were higher outside China than within.

 

I just arrived in Japan today and there was little fuss about the virus other than more people wearing masks. Schools are closing for a week tomorrow here though.

Perhaps it is mostly media hype and it is just a bad flu which we will all eventually get

 

There is a significant likelihood that humanity will be wiped out by a virulent strain of virus. It won't e COVID-19, maybe 20.

 

If your looking for a weekend break , lots of cheap hotel rooms going at the moment, especially in certain areas that are popular with overseas tourists, city locations etc.
We live down on the coast and have got a really good deal for a city stay at a top 5 star hotel, so many empty rooms at unbelievable costs.

 

I remember in High School when a social type bug spread like wildfire through the senior's rugby league team. Even the coach was struck with it. People started carrying small bottles of Dettol as a precaution.

There was fear that it could run upstream in the trough but after several months all the fear abated. I think corona will be the same.

 

The media was reportedly saying Japanese schools closing for a month

 

Yes, but lots of hype. The Japanese are generally scared of germs at normally. Now more so, but not everyone is wearing masks, but probably most are.

 

Yes it's all hype over in Japan

Hokkaido in northern Japan declares state of emergency due to coronavirus, urges people to stay at home this weekend

Tokyo Disney Resort and Universal Studios Japan will be closed for at least 2 weeks to prevent the spread of coronavirus - NHK

 

This is highly unlikely to be a “long term” event. But in the case of sharemarkets it’s dominated by participants with “short term” thinking. Hence for the sensible minority with a “long term” view this is simply business as usual. Keep investing, never sell unless capital is genuinely required ie ignore the noise and stay the course.

 

Another Diamond Princess cruise ship passenger, a 70-year-old woman, dies after being infected with coronavirus, raising ship's death toll to 5

 

I sometimes find this guy’s (Christopher Joye) views, albeit at times egotistical, interesting:

Coronavirus is a classic case of market failure

 

My Dad, who was a doctor, used to say "The bugs will get us in the end".

Clearly this one wont but eventually something big will likely wipe a lot of us out. Humanity has changed things too much, too fast. It's going to have consequences. Maybe we are the most dangerous virus of all as far as life on earth goes.

 

In which case the planet will be saved.

Job done.

 

hey guys , the title of this thread is positive thoughts about the corona virus . Off topic .

cliff

 

I was conveying positive thoughts.

 

Glad I'm not the only misanthrope out there

 

On a positive note........ its not Ebola

 

watching US coverage this morning, talk of cutting rates, misunderstood, not a done deal yet.... some more info on this
The Fed may be setting the table for 2020 rate cuts

if this happens it will be the fourth time they cut rates