Peter Thornhill 2020

Was looking at buying a ticket to his Sydney event, but have now seen it's sold out. Anyone know whether he releases more tickets or other dates for shows? I've never been to one and am very much a newbie when it comes to shares. Would you guys recommend it for newbies?

 

Sure do! I took my partner along last year. She knew very little about shares, too, but still thoroughly enjoyed the day.
Peter is a great speaker, and he explains it in simple enough language.
If you can't get along, then just buy his book. It's a quick read, and covers pretty much everything he talks about.

 

He did the same thing for My Say #57

Still worth a read though

With more updates rolling in I thought I would cheat again and repeat an earlier article, including the latest charts.

The listed property article I wrote back in 2016 was based on my annoyance at the misleading reporting from people in the industry who should know better but cannot help display their prejudice.

The further time marches on the greater my antipathy to property becomes. Read on.

It is that time in the cycle that Listed Property Trusts (LPT’s) rear their ugly heads once more and encourage me to revisit the them.

Apparently, in the recent past, listed property trusts have outperformed shares in 4 of the last 5 years; a statistic I can’t argue with. However, what I would argue with is the time frame, the benchmark used for shares and the yield trap.

The justifications from property advocates haven’t changed over time and remain as misleading as usual. So, let’s start with number one; the time frame.
LPT’s were seriously damaged goods during the GFC as result of a prior massive increase in debt levels and poor corporate governance amongst other things.
Their resulting decline was substantially greater than other indices so using the low point after a huge fall as the starting point for the performance comparison with shares must be of concern.

As usual the benchmark for shares is the All Ords index, the favourite for all property comparisons as it contains a large element of resource stocks. Since the mining boom failure (which coincided with a sharp recovery in LPT’s) we have seen this index severely compromised by the steep decline in resource share prices.

Comparing over 5 years one index that is declining sharply with one in recovery mode, from a discount to net tangible assets, seems moderately unfair!

For those familiar with my philosophy you will know my disdain for the All Ords as a measure of performance for any serious long term investor.

Below is a comparison of the 3 primary indices. As an investor I personally have never been happy with resources and thus have chosen the Industrials Index as my benchmark.
I cannot see why I should add resources to my portfolio to drag it back to the All Ords.

 

Stepping through the Thornhill process with Strong Money
How to Implement Peter Thornhill's Investment Strategy in 2020 and Beyond - Strong Money Australia

 

It continues to mystify me why Peter T still has concerns about ETF liquidity.

I recall reading an article by Dixon Advisory who at that time not long after the GFC had many of their clients invested in older style LICs. However it was mentioned that STW was also included in the client’s portfolios for improved liquidity because even the larger older LICs sometimes experienced liquidity issues in troubled times. Hence should for some reasons a client needed to sell some shares during a scary market as occurred during the GFC then STW provided guaranteed liquidity at NTA. An LIC being a closed end fund on the other hand may not have sufficient shares offered for sale or if it did the shares may be at an unacceptable discount. I certainly wouldn’t like to be in a position of needing to sell say AUI shares during a GFC like event.

I owned STW myself during the GFC. I was doing a lot of buying throughout this period. I never noticed any liquidity issues with STW but I certainly did with some of the LICs. Fortunately this worked in my favour as a buyer but I would NOT liked to have been a seller of certain LICs in particular at that time.

Personally I’m a fan of LICs and ETFs each which have their strengths and weaknesses. But for popular plain vanilla ETFs such as STW / VAS the liquidity argument seems to be untrue.

 

Episode 19. Peter Thornhill– Best selling author and father of Aussie LIC investing

A good listen, pity no transcript

Interesting comments on corporations investing in rental properties in the UK (or Europe) vs AU

 

Peter’s concerns about the liquidity of ETFs

 

Hey @Redwing, by the way Peter hates Bonds even more than property.

 

That's it

 

Keep at it @Redwing! I’m enjoying the debate

 

Honestly, we don’t need a Peter Thornhill 2020 thread. It’s basically Peter Thornhill 1990 thread but with less credibility as the “industrial” tilt unraveled.

Peter is a storyteller. Think about it.

 

Sorry, was meant to be a joke.

 

Just have to ask why this gentleman is tuned to a different level of optimism and pessimism about property.?.

 

I should've put a smiley face on mine as I was jesting also

 

That’s a relief, I was concerned given others reaction. Unfortunately not everyone gets my warped sense of humour. No harm is ever intended.

 

You can like PT or not.
You can deride or sneer at his methods or not.
Whether he prefers property or not doesn't matter.

I suspect he wouldn't care to any great extent.

However, no matter what view individuals hold of him I for one give him credit for encouraging people to invest, to start as early as possible and to keep on investing. Anybody got any improvement on those general principles?

 

BTW Satay King i intend to go along and have a listen to this gentleman some time this year,so i will ask the question when he's standing in front of me..Myself i don't care less ..

 

@willair I've only been to one presentation where was the invited speaker. My impression was he is enthusiastic with a sense of humour. For Q & A he responded from his viewpoint without putting the questioner down in any way.

The dinner and drinks were pretty good too especially as I didn't pay to attend. Yeah I was into that sort of thing then.

 

On the Aussiefirebug podcast Peter Thornhill talks about companies like Mirvac, Lendlease, Stockland, Meriton etc who build and sell, but do not hold any property in Australia because there's no money in the ownership of property for them or their shareholders, only speculation on the price appreciation. He believes the value of a property doesn't change, only steadily declines until it needs to be rebuilt

Later in the podcast he talks about companies in the UK owing property estates and renting them out (Mayfair, Belgravia, Knightsbridge etc) which has been owned by Grosvenor estates for 200-300 years, lovely old apartment blocks around central London and the fact that you can get long term tenancies in the UK and Europe (Peter's preference for security of tenure); Matt (AFB) said there must be money in it if these companies are owning property and making money off the leases, Peter agreed saying it was Corporate ownership of residential property. Matt asked if there was money in it why it wasn't similar in Australia (refer to the first paragraph here) and why companies weren't doing so here. Peter seemed to falter, but put it down to possibly tax arrangements for UK companies but commercially it has made sense for this to go on and the Government encourages this to go on. Matt said possibly there was a subsidy

Who owns London - The Great Estates