Peter Thornhill 2017 #2

Discussion in 'Share Investing Strategies, Theories & Education' started by The Falcon, 21st May, 2017.

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  1. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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  2. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    @Gockie you might enjoy this post of mine about Daryl Dixon a true LIC investing veteran and a very, very wealthy man:
    Listed Investment Companies (LICs) - Dixon

    I think you would get a great deal of pleasure from reading some of Peter's much older articles. Do a search on "Thornhill" here for articles dating back to 2003 - 2004:
    Financial planning Investment and Self Managed Super Fund Article

    I've also posted a number of older "My Say" articles / links in this thread since that time and now. Here's some of them:
    Peter Thornhill - My Says

    I enjoyed reading them, I hope you do too:).
     
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  3. Gockie

    Gockie Unicycle anywhere and everywhere... Premium Member

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    Thanks @austing!

    That needs a sticky.....
     
  4. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    It might be worthwhile posting the related ones on the Facebook page. See how good Peter's memory is:)?
     
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  5. Gockie

    Gockie Unicycle anywhere and everywhere... Premium Member

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    I put the Daryl Dixon one in my signature... :)
     
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  6. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Be warned that Dixon Advisory nowadays is very different to that of old when I saw Daryl personally.
     
  7. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    Be patient young Skywalker.
     
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  8. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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    Or maybe the processes these old LICs use has finally been exploited by other markets and we are all doomed :eek: Get out while you can ;)
     
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  9. Hodor

    Hodor Well-Known Member

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    Austing I am amazed by your memory, your ability to remember where things are posted and find links stuns me every time.
     
  10. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    Might need to be more patient than many realise! :p
     
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  11. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    I must admit I surprise myself at times given that my memory is crap in every other area of life:confused:.
     
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  12. iggster

    iggster Active Member

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    +!.

    I have exactly the same approach apart from a couple of local stocks that I bought at massive dips. The unique franking credits situation in Australia, the diversification across the market, the ability to hold dividend reserves (unlike ETFs) which enables a smoothed income flow from LICs, discounts to NTA and the fact that the Australian market, is a yield focused one means that the choice of the LIC as an income vehicle is a no-brainer.

    Most of my offshore investments are ETFs since I am looking for diversified growth vehicles,. Australian is not a place to look for growth - the ASX 200 is not much different from where it was 10 years ago:
    upload_2017-5-22_18-58-24.png

    Compare that to the US S&P 500 - and this includes the GFC:

    upload_2017-5-22_19-3-29.png

    If you get some decent growth out of the local LIC that is good but they are only as good as the general market. If you want growth look overseas.
     
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  13. Zenith Chaos

    Zenith Chaos Well-Known Member

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    @austing's cheating. He's drunk on home brew; Performance Enhancing Home brew to be precise. That LIC again, PEH.........PEB for the small (bottle) caps. An MER of 5.8% alcohol. Internally managed by "she who must be obeyed". You'll get a free T-shirt saying "beer is my dividend" if you participate in the SPP.

    What's not to like?

    Not licensed to give (alcoholic) advice.
     
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  14. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Struth our brew is obviously not as strong as yours given the above rather bewildering comments. It's all too much .... oh no here it comes again:
    IMG_0087.JPG
     
  15. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Australia is not the place for growth? Can you know that for sure? It's funny that when the US was experiencing their lost decade that started around 2000 it was ASX for growth!

    The mantra of AU for income and US for growth has been the catchcry in recent years. Perhaps it might be true for sometime to come or much longer. But the reality is no one knows.

    Given the long and strong bull market in the US, valuation metrics have the US over the next decade experiencing very low returns. Maybe Europe will step up to the plate but again no one knows.

    Don't get my wrong I'm not trying to be a pain as I also hedge my bets by having some International exposure and Aussie small caps.

    But the contrarian in me starts to become interested as more and more join the herd in believing the same story!
     
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  16. Mike Roberts

    Mike Roberts Member

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    It is amazing how quickly markets/sectors come in and out of fashion. I remember everyone hated the US in 2009 yet the DOW has roughly tripled (exclusive of dividends) since then.

    In reality, it's all about total return (dividends + capital gains) and on this basis Australia is one of three geographies that have outperformed the US since 1900. The others are South Africa and Sweden. New Zealand, the UK, Canada, Denmark and Switzerland are not far behind as well. Over time markets will come in and out of fashion but high quality assets should continue to deliver over long periods of time. Just look at how well you would have done over 40 years if you had bought the nifty fifty stocks at the top of the market in 1972.
     
  17. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    As long as you just blend in it's never a problem..
     
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  18. iggster

    iggster Active Member

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    The issue for me is that I cannot see where the Australian economy is headed. Apart from living off the sheep's back and the biggest commodities boom it has ever experienced (which incidentally is covered in the periods where it was 'ASX for growth') I cannot see any large forms of income. Education and tourism are bigger proportions of the economy than they were 10 years ago and there has been a mini surge in commodities of late but that is not expected to last a really long period. Unless Australia can make money in services, raw materials and infrastructure with the Chinese OBOR initiative (which Australia has not officially joined) I cannot see another long term income winner for this country.

    Quite apart from that, Economics 101 has always shown that the provider of secondary and tertiary industries such as manufacturing and large IP is where money can be made by an order of magnitude higher than primary industry hence the rise of countries like the USA and Israel (both hi tech countries) and the south east asian nations with skilled and educated work forces. That is why, with Australia at the bottom of the ladder with mainly only primary industries does not look as good. Australia has produced a couple of really good IP related companies - CSL and Atlassian. Atlassian never listed here because they realised that the market is too small and there was way more to be made by the big boys and that there were far more kindred spirits in the USA than here.

    I like contrarian views since they can provide opportunities but I just cannot see it at the moment.

    Anyway just my 2 cents worth.
     
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  19. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    All good points. I admit I can't see anything to get excited about at the moment either in Australia and hence haven't bought any shares for awhile. A major correction would get me interested as it compensates for some of the risks you mention. That said I can't get excited about the US either. They might be high tech etc over there but are investors way overpaying for it at this time?

    What I was getting at is that none of us can know for sure what the future holds. The markets never fail to surprise. So for most accumulators, if concerned, all they can do is diversify sufficiently to protect against the unknown. I certainly won't be selling any of our ASX holdings.

    There is not enough gloom here yet to promp the contrarian in me into action. But the contrarian in me has me cautious about the US at the moment. However I'm a retiree with sufficient income so fortunately I can afford to have a view (generally unwise) which is currently to wait patiently. If I'm wrong I don't care because it doesn't really matter to us. I'm happy to miss out rather than pay too much and take on unneeded risk unless well rewarded.
     
  20. iggster

    iggster Active Member

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    I cannot disagree with any of those points. The US is very expensive at the moment and everyone waits for a catalyst to move it down. But no one knows when and how much a of a dip may occur. If the Comey testimony creates a ruckus the market may move down but will it and will it be for more than a day? If Pence becomes Prez it is actually more likely that the tax changes will occur as the White House chaos may subside. There are many factors in play and no one knows what the market may do.

    There are few good valued buys in the US and Australia at the moment so reducing risk with patience is a solid strategy. For me I want to get the last 5% of my portfolio bedded down so some chaos/dips/buys would suit me just fine.
     
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