WA Perth or Melbourne??

you must be smoking some good stuff ol mate

We cant even get a nation wide NBN roll out right or invest and build large scale renewable energy grids so I think we might be alright for the next 50 years or so

good luck

 

Jobs have been getting replaced since jobs began. It comes down to productivity output - if you find a way to do something more productively (use a robot, offshore it, or any other method) then your time is merely spent on a more productive task. Who builds the robots, codes them, repairs them, fault finds, sells, manages the accounts for, directs the staff doing all those jobs, and every other function within a company that isn't turning the screw driver?

Also the "living wage" concept... its a fancy term for widespread welfare payments. There is literally no difference between paying people a minimum sum because they are unemployed, and paying them because they a robot took their job. Its not possible for the same reasons that welfare cannot be higher than it is (incentive to work, international competitiveness with cost of labour, tax burden etc.)

 

Robots are coming to take our jobs. This has been happening for decades and it will increase in the future. If this we can be certain. However, robots are not going to destroy money. If some current industries such as accounting or law are primarily automated then either they will charge a lower price or become super profitable. Either way, governments will want their cut.

Governments could require all robots have a compliance plate and are registered with an annual registration fee, much like cars now. Then it will hire people to run a Department of Robot Registration. Some of those jobs could be automated, cutting costs and freeing up money to hire people to do other government work.

The government could also require all robots undergo annual safety checks and set up a department to manage that. Inspectors would have to be registered and certified. Their job would be to undertake safety checks of robots for a fee of course.

Also, as mentioned above, robots need inventing, coding, manufacturing and testing. All of these are job opportunities. Think of all the parts. They all need to be designed, manufactured and delivered. If course many of these tasks will be automated but there will always be jobs for people.

 

Everybody just moves up the value chain to generate more output.

When I started business graduates would spend their first 3 years coding bank statements. It was boring rubbish work - and it is now all automated (or sent offshore for those who don't yet automate),

The same applies to banks who distributed money and the ATM came in.

The changes will be hard and more frequent but the overall wealth effect for an economy will increase.

 

Great example. Now probably most of those grad positions are analysts and data crunchers, a job that didn't exist back then prior to big data analytics. As you mention - much higher output paying someone to find a data trend than code a bank statement.

 

@MTR Obviously this strategy worked out well for you, but considering the costs involved in buying / selling, shouldn`t be more buy and hold and leverage the compound effect (if you buy well)? I am thinking from the average investor point of view (who does this job "part time"). If you are a full time developer it is different, you run a business and cash flow is critical. If we talk stocks, yes it is easier to buy / sell and hopefully make money. Just my 2 cents as new starter, I see the RE more as a long run.

 

Do both, no rules really... I do what makes money, sometimes hold/sell whatever I need

 

I agree with you There are markets within markets for sure. I personally think as I do watch some suburbs in Sydney, that Melbourne is doing a Sydney (in terms of rises) it is still rising after coming back from the northern suburbs auctions this week. The ship def has sailed for preston and reservoir (I think a very similar affect will happen in thomastown lalor)

I went to this place preston (this would have been) like 500k 2 years ago - sold 1.215 million. I rememeber going to similar Californian bungalow in preston a year ago and it was only 787K and it was in the better parts of preston. This property is like in the ex-housing commission area.



even more than a place in ex housing commission place smaller but port Melbourne postcode a year ago


Went to "Heidleberg West" - what would have flown off the shelf low 400kish 2 years ago went for 950K. bids started at 600K, 650K, 800K, 900K and 950K

(seriously) I used to go to auctions in balwyn (premium mainland Chinese suburb top 2 in Melbourne for them and this was normal in balwyn/balwyn north for 50- 100K bids) but in Heidelberg West bidding a 100 K up between 3 bidders (Heidelberg West is the ex-housing comm area of Melbourne and considered undesirable)

171 Southern Road, Heidelberg West VIC 3081 - House For Sale - 2013481427


Next on the list (464sqm for 8 townhouses permit in preston)




To be honest, rather than Brisbane or Sydney or Perth - I will be looking at thomastown lalor to buy as the prices had gone crazy in this part (like massively) 2.3 million for 464sqm??? that is like smashing even the 1.81 million in St albans 600sqm. - similar to box hill in the east, once it gets to this level, the move goes to the next suburb and the next.

 

Agree with you, Melbourne is going great guns and why I would be looking elsewhere unless you know the market very well it takes a couple of weeks/months to get a real understanding of value.

There is an auction coming up near where I live that I will be interested in seeing what it goes for in Watsonia. Hopefully the money starts to flow into Watsonia a bit more

 

Watsonia is not too far away from those places. but when you think about heidleberg West right outside that Olympic village place (which isn't exactly chapel st in south yarra) going for 950K? it's crazy.

 

Always thought HW was a dark horse with the surrounding suburbs around it was only a matter of time until it kicked off and it has been for the last 6-12 months. Before I bought in Watsonia I was looking at HW again back then but decided on Watsonia due to the value I got with the house + the access to trains being about 700m walk. Still haven't regretted it but Macleod median is now creeping up to 1M (4 beds are over 1M)

Heat map of all houses significant difference for HW in price being at least 100k lower in price



I also think that RE.com needs to change their heat map as everything is becoming dark red

 

I've kept an eye on HW and HH during my latest research, on paper yes, they do look like the dark horse and yes it has gone crazy. But when I think about it, they are still cheap even compared to Rezza. These days I am looking at $X per square meter, not the absolute price. Unless anyone knows anything else, I am told the gov is even building MORE accommodation in Heidelberg West for those unfortunate in our society to have fallen on hard times, so I don't know why ex commission are driving it red hot. Sure, everyone knows and probably punts that one day if that commission block(s) are gone and into private hands, the suburb will boom, it's biggest asset is that it is 12-14km from the CBD but no transport. HH whilst slightly more expensive looks to be a better punt? Closer to train stations and better places like Rosanna.

Anything in Rezza East of the Station and beneath Broadway has gone nuts (900K+), towards Preston and towards the city is even hotter. Oddly when you consider Rezza/HW/HH it seems much better value than Clarinda, Clayton South, Dingley Village.

St. Albans - @melbournian, I think that 1.81 mil one is on Alfrieda Street - Commercial Zone.

My thinking is that the smart money is within the Albion, Deer Park, Kings Park area - sub $600K and next to boom towns (Sunshine & St. Albans). St. Albans is worth a punt, especially near secondary stations like Ginifer. Thomastown I think has sailed as well, really, now your looking at low 700ks. St. Albans looks a better punt with the same stats.

Heidelberg Heights looks good as well but only on the fringes...? HW I agree is a dark horse as well, but really questionable whether they can really gentrify and within a reasonable timeframe. The thing with HH HW is that its very close to Ivanhoe - simply gorgeous lush green and filled with parks. Very scenic as I drove through it especially near the Kew golf club on the Boulevard. In my books a lot better views etc and transport than Balwyn/Balwyn North.

The only issue I had with Watsonia was that there was a catch 22 - the closer you were to the town/station, the closer you were under the power lines.

 

I bought once from the dept of housing and on the day of auction to sign, met with the (GM or director of sales or purchases for dept of housing) as he only had the authority to sign. I met him again this week at one oft he housing comm sell offs in auction and had a 15 minute chat while waiting for the auction to start, I asked him what was his plan for the Heidelberg west, heights, reza area and he said they are going to sell off in HW and HH, their focus would be to built further out and to change the area rather than build blocks in areas which already had a high ratio of housing comm, he said check the council reports on % of housing comm in each suburbs as there is directive to sell off. as the Olympic shopping area will be redone over time as well what he said.

Heidelberg Heights if you asked has already taken off - and is already at pretty expensive. They're selling 700-800K townhouses on haig st dev and it really has made the area changed.

 

Interesting and thanks for sharing, in Ashwood they have now gone the other way of doing a massive complex to house them, public housing Hong Kong style! LOL

Selling them off could mean one of two things, if it is not a lease back to the government, the area will become 1mil+ in no time, especially HH. But if its a lease back, its harder to gentrify.

I understand HH has sailed well into 800ks now, but compared as I said vis a vis other suburbs, if you are willing to gamble big, it has big returns.

 

Watsonia is a real buzz of a suburb, agree the powerlines are not the greatest but few houses have them in the backyard. I myself am about 300m from them, cant hear them or even see them.

Shocking I know, excuse the puns.

 

I find the North/North East really intriguing in that its a hash of everything and all juxtaposed together.

Ivanhoe is gorgeous and lush.
Drive a bit up to Heidelberg Heights and it gets a bit less green/rougher, drive west to HW and its seriously our version of the Bronx.
Rosanna is again very nice and hilly.
Head north to Bundoora/Watsonia and it gentrifies back and seems very family orientated.
Montmorency, Eltham in the outer North East and you could be forgiven that you think this is somewhere 200kms from Melbourne in dense bush.

The rest of the directions seem to be in "clusters" where you get a few suburbs within the same social-economic group or landscape.

 

Very much agree, the most diverse part of Melbourne.

Couldn't afford a house in Ivanhoe or Eaglemont and still cannot haha.

Monty is slowly losing it 'bush' feel with all the development happening inside still has a long way to go.

 

Interesting, as an off shoot thought, I can't quite help but think only the West and to some extent the North West are the only areas of "organic" growth as, especially the West has zero prestigious suburbs. Almost every Western suburb you can think of was historically a working class or industrial suburb until recently.

When you look at each direction, there seems to be a "super" suburb that ignited a boom and the effect basically went in all directions to what it is today, there was a map that @melbournian posted about average prices from 10/15 years ago and today, I'd consider these as the "initial booms"

- East: Surrey Hills, Camberwell
- North East (inner): Ivanhoe
- South East: Malvern/Caufield
- Inner North West: Essendon

I can't think of any prestige suburbs really in the West historically speaking and I think in their own right, the West became preferable (inner) once it got too far to live in the other directions or it became too expensive. That's why I think if there was a bust, it would affect more so suburbs in the East, South East etc. A lot of the suburbs in other directions increased in value due to the spill over effect of other suburbs.

 

A lot of other suburbs missing from the east side.

 

I don't believe there will be mass unemployment... more so greater separation between the haves and the have nots.

Don't disagree to an extent, but this is the first time we've been able to teach robots to be smarter than humans. I'll never forget watching a doco on how they trained Watson to win at Jeopardy.