WA Perth Market 2015

Or as more people lose their jobs. This is the one I was thinking of earlier:

This ambitious would be first time developer has come unstuck. Both he and his wife have lost their jobs and plans to develop here have come undone.
THIS PROPERTY WITH DA APPROVAL FOR 8 UNITS HAS GOT TO BE URGENTLY LIQUIDATED.​

267 Robinson Avenue, Cloverdale, WA - Residential House for Sale

It's a shame. That would have been a good project.

 

You could jump in

It's clear that the real estate agent has absolutely no idea how liquidation works, that's for sure because it would have sold otherwise.

 

I don't like that per square metre price. IMO it is too high at this point in time. This is not the project I am looking for

 

Proposed new train stations - Perth and Peel Green Growth Plan for 3.5 million
https://www.dpc.wa.gov.au/Consultat...9-Action-Plan-C-Figure-09-PTA-South-Metro.pdf
https://www.dpc.wa.gov.au/Consultat...08-Action-Plan-C-Figure-08-PTA-North-West.pdf
https://www.dpc.wa.gov.au/Consultat...07-Action-Plan-C-Figure-07-PTA-North-East.pdf
https://www.dpc.wa.gov.au/Consultat...05-06-Action-Plan-C-Figure-06-PTA-Central.pdf

 

I just read this article on Perth Now. Not a good sign for the real estate market, especially considering how low interest rates are.

 

Louis Christopher update for Perth

I keep hearing rumours the Perth Market is bottoming or has bottomed. But I am still not seeing it yet in our numbers.

For starters the rental market is going from very bad to atrocious. Take a look at this vacancies chart.
SQM Research - Residential Vacancy Rates

It should be no surprise then that rents have been smashed. They're now down over 20% for the last three years and there is nothing really to suggest they're now bottoming.

The for sale market has done comparatively better which I think has been a result of the rate cuts, providing some type of cushion in the market. But still listings have risen and asking prices for houses are down 5% year on year.

Our forecasts for rents is to fall another 8% in 2016 while dwelling prices will proceed to fall between 4-7%. Looking at how the year is ending I see no reason to make any revisions here right now. That said if the forecasts do come in, Perth may well be in a better position, value wise in 2017.

 

Thanks @Big Daddy. I agree. Property prices are heading towards something I would be interested in.

Also, I know auctions are not at all popular in Perth but this is bad even for Perth.

67 Total Scheduled Auctions, Sold at auction: 13, Passed in: 39.

Auction Results Perth, WA - Latest Weekend Results

 

No problemo. Just trying to share the knowledge and learn from others as I'm looking to buy again but not until we are close to the bottom but I understand this is hard to do.

Everyone posting articles and sharing their opinions has given me a great insight into the Perth Market

 

Me too. IMO, buying right at the bottom is not super critical for me. Whatever stage we are at, I run the numbers and see how the deal stacks up. For months now I have not seen anything remotely attractive (that I can afford anyway). Finally properties are trickling onto the market where the numbers are starting to look more attractive.

 

What happened to the other 15 properties, no bids at all?

It was another week of terrible news for Perth, massive budget blowout means cutbacks on government sector employees will be put in place and a hiring ban instituted. Which should put further pressure on unemployment/underemployment figures. With debt getting to massive levels now.

Would not be the least bit surprised to see a 10%+ drop over the next 6 months with the way things are going.

 

Beats me. At a guess, I would say:
- not reported?
- sold prior, not reported?
- withdrawn?
- auction cancelled?
who knows?

A freeze is coming? No, wait, it's already here!

Jobs WA | Employment opportunities with the WA Government

Seems to be heading that way for sure.

 

There were other cuts on the government employees as well, in particular to those getting their rent paid for them (can't remember specifics).

Some would argue that particular focus should have happened about 10 years ago when the government employee glut began...

 

Theres also the interstate investors who see value here compared to the cooling easy coast market (except brisbane) and international investors since we are in close proximity to Asia but I doubt that will happen for a while .

 

There are also investors like me and my friends who are ready to buy when the price is right. I think to some extent, there are factors that will limit "the bottom".
1) there are some investors/owners who won't sell at the bottom of the market, which will limit supply to some extent
2) there are investors in Perth ready to jump in once prices reach a certain point, which will moderate "the bottom" to some extent
3) there are eastern states investors ready to jump in as well, which will also moderate "the bottom" to some extent
4) ditto for overseas investors

All of these factors working together mean that there is a limit to how low prices might go. At some point the market will reach an equilibrium and won't drop further than that. It is anyone's guess what that point might be. I am sure we are not there yet. Perhaps some time next year?

 

After seeing the cbd today, it looks like consumers dont mind spending on boxing day sales. Saw a few hundred thousand people. In an hour

 

If you take a longer term view...I reckon Perth is a better bet than Brissie. I am seeing deals already...I have been low balling offers...nearly snagged one last week...vendor agreed but bank would not! This was for a house on 680sqm ...offer was 265k....with a quick reno...you could get 320-340pw in rent.

 

That's a big call.
ATM in Perth, there's no guarantee you could get anything return wise and it looks terminal near term.
What suburb are you talking about?

 

How do you know you saw a few hundred thousand people?

 

I usually will not post the suburbs till I buy.

Lets say there is one or two buyers agents doing exactly that.

The market is not terminal there are markets within markets. Some areas of Perth are doing ok...some are doing really terrible. The rental market has come off 15%.

 

I would say 15% is a very low estimate. Perth and its surrounds will be in decline for a handful of years at the very least. It's only beginning.