Perhaps some Meaningful Property Charts??

Source.....Macro Business: Corelogic

This chart - growth in Australia’s capitals since 2011.


As you can see, Sydney and Melbourne is going great guns .


Why the capitals are on different tracks?? state economy, planning, resources boom and bust.

But at the end of the day, I think it comes down to

Population.


National Chart

Population growth is the green line, while dwelling approvals, commencements and completions are the others.

At the national level, you can see that population growth peaked just after the GFC. It has come off a little since then, but still remains around historical highs.


So we can rerun this chart for each of the different states. This is what the results look like:

New South Wales:

You can see here the massive surge in population growth, which coincided with a collapse in construction, although that has picked up again recently.

Victoria:

Victoria has been the construction leader, mainly through high-rises. However, population growth continues to be strong

Queensland:

In Queensland, the chart is a little more troubling. Queensland has been adding a lot of supply recently, but population growth has been slowing considerably.



This, I think, is why you hear people fretting about an apartment oversupply in Brisbane. Supply has been strong, but it’s not clear that there is the population growth to meet it.

Mind you at the moment there is apartment oversupply in all capital cities.... ouch

 

Great charts MTR. Explains exactly what happened in hindsight. Now if only we could peek in to the future. Looking at trend though looks like population growth and low IR will continue to drive price growth

 

Do you have one for w.a i'd be interested to see how that's changed over the last 2 yrs?.

 

Melb numero uno, apparently 2000 coming to this State every week

When we had mining boom Perth was numero Uno, long gone

 

I'm waiting on ABS' March data releases and will be sharing these exact charts for all states, as well as a few other bits of data that help give insight to the future.

 

yes another good reason why Sydney is getting closer to its peak - people now moving from Syd to SEQ & even Melbourne

 

Awesome graphs, and yes they do move from nsw to qld and vic, perhaps fifo demand, but it does seem that after a period if time they move back to nsw. Maybe we might see less of them return to nsw and entry cost back into nsw RE are much higher than they were in the past.

 

Thanks, mind you Melb may not be as expensive as Syd but anything inner city is super pricey. I see good value in Collingwood, those looking at primary residence cottage...doer upper???

 

Mutter mutter - great charts - mutter mutter and where is Canberra, the Nation's Capital ? Oh, and Hobart and Darwin...

 

Back to supply vs demand and population growth....... BOOM
Corelogic (March 9, 2017)
CoreLogic: Housing needs both demand and supply reforms - MacroBusiness

Extract below

CoreLogic’s Cameron Kusher is the latest to call for fundamental reforms to both the demand as supply-sides of the housing market to alleviate affordability pressures in the two major cities:

…housing affordability challenges are largely a Sydney and Melbourne phenomena:


Between December 2008 and June 2016, the increase in population across each state and territory was recorded at: 724,102 persons in NSW, 754,757 in Vic, 568,922 in Qld, 110,303 in SA, 408,244 in WA, 17,354 in Tas, 22,354 in NT and 45,040. NSW and Vic have overwhelmingly seen a much greater increase in population over this period with most of the population flowing into Sydney and Melbourne.

Qld has had the third highest rate of population growth over the period however, it is important to remember that less than a half of the state’s population live in the capital city compared to almost 65% of the NSW population living in Sydney and 76% of Vic’s population living in Melbourne.

The substantial increase in the population of the two largest states has fuelled increasing demand for housing. Especially when you consider that 51.8% of NSW population growth over the period and 62.6% of Vic population growth has come from either net overseas or net interstate migration…

Ultimately, a solution comes down to both supply and demand. Increasing the supply of housing will help but reducing the level of demand for housing could also help to alleviate some of the upwards pressure on housing prices.

The supply of housing can be increased by building more homes, as has occurred over recent years, however, just building more homes is not necessarily enough…

Demand in Sydney and Melbourne is being fuelled by heightened levels of population growth, especially migration, strong job creation and low mortgage rates. Furthermore, the recent strong level of value growth has attracted an increasing number of investors to purchase a property in Sydney and Melbourne. If the goal is to slow the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values (and I think it should be) curbing demand is a key way to do this.

One obvious way to curb the demand for housing in Sydney and Melbourne is to create demand elsewhere, this may eventually lead to affordability challenges in these alternate regions in the future. Other ways to dampen demand which have been suggested include: removing or changing negative gearing, removing or reducing the capital gains tax discount or a tax on vacant properties. Keep in mind that negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount are available nationwide however, dwelling value growth has only been excessive in recent years in Sydney and Melbourne…

 

Great charts folks! Thank you for the share.

I dont have any charts so make of this what you will; but I'd wager that net interstate migration to QLD from other states would habe a substantial weighting from retirement-lifestyle-migration baby boomers! Warmer climates and nice beachside lifestyles are great for easing old bones/joints, and stress

This would be supported by the fact that QLD isn't creating so many net-new jobs. For retirees this doesnt deter them because, well, they aren't looking for jobs! They are retired.

I'd love to see a chart that plots the last 10 year trajectory of interstate migration versus a line plotted for "new arrivals to australia" migration - all per city.

I reckon it'd state the obvious. Syd/Mel upticking for new international arrivals (younger, job seeking families moving to, well, where the jobs are!) and boomer-retiree driven interstate migration into non NSW/VIC states for retirement lifestyle reasons.

 

Also makes you realise how things may shift of when we start to get a significant migration of population from NSW to QLD. I believe this is now underway and for a range of reasons will really pick up strongly next few years both as resources pick up, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast growth and comparative value arbitrage for Brisbane.

 

I hear Tamworth is more affordable and increasing in demand

 

I get why people move and how this could change property markets as identified in this thread, but they wont move unless they know there are jobs. Not saying this is not the case in QLD, but it is a concern, it does not have the same fundamentals as Melb/Syd. Not sure you will get the significant growth these two major cities have had???? Of course I could be totally wrong

 

@MTR, looks like QLD might be on it's on it's way to regain the top interstate migration crown again. please check out ABS.Stat, for that quarter, QLD gets more net interstate migrants than Vic for the first time in a few years.

Over all QLD business confident is up and I think business will start hiring if the trend continues and more and more people moving to the state as it is generate more growth opportunities. It's the same concept as how migration works in Australia as a whole, Australia is growing because of population growth.

 

petewargent's chart is only till Jun 2016

@MTR
I expect interstate migration to QLD to be on a downturn now since unemployment is up. Most importantly full time employment is down and being masked by increase in parttime employment. It would be interesting to have a chart up to the latest numbers.

As per last labour force report released on 16 march 2017 for QLD.
Trend employment in Queensland rose marginally in February 2017 (up 1,500 persons). This increase was due to
a rise in part-time employment of 5,200 persons, which more than offset a decline in full-time employment (down 3,700
persons). Over the year to February 2017, trend employment in Queensland fell 1.0% (or 24,200 persons).
Queensland’s trend unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in February 2017, from an upwardly revised 6.3% in January.
Queensland’s unemployment rate has edged higher since October 2016.

I am actually surprised with the drop in employment numbers, could be the slowdown in new property developments that has hit the construction sector. Also the Aussie has rebounded a bit in recent months which actually doesn't bode well for tourism.

 

I just found this chart on the internet. Such long flat periods Can see how timing matters. Note: it's an index, not real dollars. And with inflation, prices would have actually gone backwards.

https://macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Egan_Soos_04.png

 

Interesting chart, what is it they say..... property doubles every 7 years??.

Imagine if you seriously considered using the LOE model, and got your timing wrong...ouch

 

Last time I posted a graph, some posters felt negatively in relation to it's relevance...

 

no one likes party pooper