No Need to Speculate - Lets Look at the Facts

not arguing sydney will flatline or drop but i assume all these people (steve and forum posters) with the facts/that are so confident with facts used similar facts to make a motza from the booms? or were you not confident in the 'facts'?

 

The only thing that really matters is whether supply is increasing

I believe this is happening in both Syd and Melb market, APRA in part is one reason, investors are out of the market, if you cant source finance you cant buy... its that simple
FHB can not soak up supply and of course affordability is a major issue

What no one is talking about is RBA increasing interest rates in 2018.....??? if this happens this will probably impact on all property markets around Oz

 

Timing is everything, get this right you make money

 

Whilst they're not building any more harbour-front land in Sydney, demand will be a given considering scarcity. It might be true for bog standard dwellings elsewhere but Sydney's growth is confined by natural geographic boundaries. (just like Perth to the west)

 

Interesting discussion here from May 2017 (with graphs!):
Housing affordability Flash Forum: the transcript

 

but but but......... Syd blue chip did fall back during the last down turn. I know everyone always things blue chip is bullet proof, its just another myth.

Perhaps @See Change can shed some light on this. I am pretty sure he was buying during Syds last down turn????

 

agree affordability is a barrier and historically prices flatten until wages catch up - typical cycle - but that doesn't affect the massive volumes of wealth overseas. This is a new game now.
Are there other factors like Chinese restrictions at play?

 

Yes..... This.......

Concerns are swirling about the fallout from settlement risks in Brisbane as foreign buyers are struggling to access the money to close their deals. According to research from investment bank UBS, one in five apartment buyers in the Queensland capital are failing to settle.

Beijing has tightened capital controls, cracking down on investors wanting to send money overseas. Chinese individuals are now capped at sending $50,000 a year overseas and banks must report any foreign currency transfers of $10,000 or more. Add to that the changes in bank lending rules here in Australia for foreign investors, and it seems now 20 percent of Chinese buyers are walking away from their deposits.

 

I don't think the settlement risk is exclusive to Brisbane. Although it is a problem here for investor-type units which are oversupplied.
My post was more about Sydney which has flattened. Brisbane is not coming off a massive boom and actually is outperforming Sydney atm.

 

I don't think there are many mainland chinese in Brisbane tbh - the most would be in Sydney. Again there are many types of chinese (some with no restrictions when transferring money)

 

Look where the Chinese are buying up

That's good.
I am not looking at any particular market in Australia.
Though its pretty clear Syd market is slowing down/ correcting or whatever and Melb also showing signs of this.
Both markets have had a great run.



MTR

 

No there isn't many. But Sydney is very Chinese (or international generally) and I don't see affordability affecting international buyers in the same way. There's so many rich people in Asia looking to park money. So I wonder how much that affects the historic cycle of having to wait until domestic wages go up.

 

According to this the reality of the impact??
Chinese investment too low to be the driver of soaring house prices, study finds

Chinese property buyers' top 10 countries

 

Sydney finished, Melbourne finishing, perhaps the usual historic cycle then with Brisbane next to go...
Foreigners will be influenced by local demand as the view shifts to Brisbane as the next place to grow and we may see greater interest in Brisbane from China and other places?

 

I think it depends on the suburb ( if it was chatswood, eastwood, glen Waverley, Balwyn) - definitely. if you talking likes of epping - don't think so or Werribee. I think I told the story before of the chinese guy raising what would have been 1.5 mil property to 1.8+ mil.

 

I have read/watched/heard a lot to suggest that the actual levels of Chinese investment in property are not being captured accurately as they are using friends or other methods. And that politically that is palatable not to have the full extent revealed.
Perhaps a little paranoid but undoubtedly some truth to it too.

Edit: I just saw one of the comments on the article by a 'Glenn Stewart' talks about Chinese investment not being captured as Chinese as through some type of shortcut residency.

 

I just attached a link
Government is not making it attractive.

 

that is not how Asians in general look at things (they want to group together in what is their comfort zone so hence you see why the suburbs are closely linked to the demographics . if it gets too expensive - they move the next suburb away not whole cities- I can tell you some suburbs in Melbourne are still booming with new entrants and buyers and this is on the ground information. Also the assumption that all the funds and buyers come from china is wrong. there are the Vietnamese (overseas), SE Asians (from Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia) and the Koreans.

 

"He also said the "East Asian" category included people from Japan, Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia, who are mistakenly identified as Chinese (which is a common experience).

Adding to the perception that Chinese buyers are flooding the Australian property market is the high concentration of Chinese residents in certain neighbourhoods.

For instance, almost every fourth person speaks Mandarin in the Melbourne neighbourhood of Clayton, while that figure is higher in the Sydney suburb of Burwood — every 1 in 3."

I too expect my kids to speak Mandarin and whatever other language that the school system makes available to them. He doesn't even look Asian.

 

Right. But I think we are actually talking on a broader scale.

US is where Chinese are now buying billions of $ of real estate.

In the scheme of things Oz Government is not making it very attractive at the moment for foreign investors.. The rules have changed and this will most certainly impact on foreigners investing in Australia.