New dwellings, population, and jobs trends

I've mentioned in a few threads that i was pulling some data together to trend what is happening in each state so i though I'd start a new thread on it.

Sorry that there is a lot on each chart, it just makes it easier to compare this way. Note that this data is averaged over the preceding year - this helps to remove seasonal bias as well as make trends more visible.

My thoughts in summary:

• NSW makes no sense how population is still growing. I expect growth to fall this year
• VIC very strong. Risk of significant overbuild decreases with every data release, though it is on an economic high so i dont expect conditions to stay so good.
• QLD notable overbuild to hit in 2017/18. Jobs struggle is real.
• SA i am fast giving up speculating on, but i do see challenges here.
• WA jobs is clearly the problem, causing falls in population growth. This seems to have bottomed out in late 2016 and is since recovering. completions will also continue to fall over the next year, so conditions in 2017 will be far better than 2016 (though there is some way to go)

 

Nice charts!

QLD and WA are just getting a bump from the recent spike in commodity prices. Prices are not going to hold up for long it seems for 2017 and already dropping fast this past week together with oil prices. QLD population is probably getting a slight bump from miners switching from WA to the QLD LPG mines.

Syd.Melb have been ahead in jobs and population due to the massive construction bump and massive inflow of foreign capital mainly from China into the property sector. Chinese inflow has more or less suddenly run dry since start of the year and construction is on the way down as well. There will be a lag, maybe half year for the jobs in these states to show a downtrend.

 

NSW is showing jobs falling now, but i think VIC will be stable until at least end of next year. they are still ramping up government spending, with $3bn/year extra being spent on infrastructure alone.

I think that has been intersting is the difference between states, and that is now closing. WA/QLD's huge negatives had an even worse effect on state economies while VIC/NSW have been doing so well. Even if WA/QLD dont markedly improve, the effects on the state will be subdued as the lure of higher prosperity elsewhere begins to fade

 

Interesting, Melb still a good bet compared to other States?

 

Yeah its a clear best performer. This chart shows the number of new people per new house, so the higher the number the more the state is underbuilding more people for less houses).

It shows that since 2010, VIC has been progressively underbuilding more and more. I do think we are at the peak of that though as completions are set to ramp up.

For reference, built stock in most states is around ~2.2-2.6 people per dwelling.

 

The latest from the ABS ! a Whooping 107 770 additions to Melbourne under 2015-2016!
"South Morang in the city's north, Cranbourne East in the south-east (both 5,000), and Craigieburn - Mickleham (4,500) in the north "

3218.0 - Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2015-16

 

Yeah its been absolutely massive for a few years now. Interstate migration, usually negative, has been storming ahead. Its overseas arrivals are still second to Sydney though. Sydney however is starting to see an increase of interstate outflow while Melbourne is still growing (as of sept 2-16)