Managed Funds Navra FUM to hit $200 million

It looks suspiciously like you've got some nice spreadsheets behind those charts Dave...care to share

N

 

Believe it or not, but ive created all those spreadsheets since about 11am, since i first read this thread thinking wow thats a great idea....

Im trying to do one more then ill pm it to you...

 

I am wandering if it's worth taking ML up to 70% for last 1/4 and then selling back to the 50% comfort zone. Any thoughts on this idea ?

 

You could do that, but it wouldn't mean you'd make more profit as the trading that generated those profits has already occurred. What it would mean though is a pretty big distribution. That might be good if you're trying to convert some non-deductible debt to deductible debt. But the distribution will kick your LVR already way above the 70% level if you buy in late and the money is already made. You'd probably just end up taking that distribution and using it to rebalance your LVR anyway.

I don't reckon its a good idea, but talk to your financial planner for more reasoned advice.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

If you did this then you will need to wait until the fund recovered the difference between your buy price and the price of the units after the distribution.

eg

Buy at 1.18

distribution .08

Unit price after dist 1.12 (went to 1.20 before end of 1/4)

If you simply sold at the 1.12 all you have really gained is 2cents the remaining 6 cents is your capital returned to you as taxable income.

But if you waited unitl the unit price was closer to the original buy price again then you have managed to drag the 8cents into an earlier period and maintained your capital.

I recently acted on this basis to increase this years income but I do intend to leave the extra funds invested until that price recovery happens.

Cheers

 

Alan

re ROI - most of the shares in the portfolio have done 10%+ since the beginning of March, a few have ambled sideways, but there have been quite a few that have shown in excess of 20% return, i.e. WPL $36-44, STO, $9-12.50, ORI $24-35, BSL $9-12, BHP $27-32 etc. so if you invested directly for the last 2.5 months you would be much further ahead, but of course you would have had to pick the right ones.

It is hard to work out a true return if the fund had been 100% invested because although 40% is safely tucked away getting some CMT interest at 6.5% or thereabouts, you are still servicing your debt on borrowings of a margin loan at a higher rate say 8%+ depending on the size of your loan, so in a way you are foregoing some of the profits because of being tied up in cash, and it is costing you 1.5-2% because you are fully drawn on your loan although the fund holds something back in cash, but that is the nature of the beast (call it a safety factor but it is costing you).

There is an interesting article in this month's issue of Smart Investor on EMH (efficient market hypothesis) which basically spells out the inefficiency of fund managers and such like because of the methodology they need to employ and why they usually underperform the market.

 

If I can get 15% pa wilst running a conservative (in cash at the right time) situation I'm as happy as a pig in mud.

Like someone said earlier there is a big difference between realised gains and on paper gains. Watch out for the change in sentiment if you're not in cash at the right time.

1.2115

MJK

 

Today could be argued to be a good day.........to be in cash say to the tune of 40%.

MJK

 

Yep, and hopefully by the end of the day they won't be in cash to the full 40%. When the market experiences some of the volatility we've seen of late, this is when the DCT model comes into its own.

Mind you 1% does not equate to real volatility. I'd like to see it fall 5% today! And of course, make it up again over the next week and a bit. That would be a nice little outcome.

Cheers,
Michael.

 

Hi,
When saying that Navra is holding roughly 40% in cash, how do you arrive at that figure?
Or is this just a hypothetical figure?
Thanks
Jayar

 

For the Navra cash holdings - Click on the Performance Commentary on the front page of the NavraInvest website, which is updated in the middle of each month.

At the end of February, cash holding was 41.09%.

 

Cash holding

The cash holding is currently around 50percent

Bob

 

Rickson, Bob,
Gotcha.
Thanks for that.
Jayar

 

Which funds are you suggesting are smaller and safer or better performing than NI ? Or is the "_error" part of your username referring to the statement you made ? $200M isn't "big" but 20% pa return is pretty "good" ...