My portfolio. Does this look ok?

Prob 48% because its the top performing fund or one of over the last three years.

 

Actually I found the first 20 years the worst.

 

And waiting for the next 20.

 

I read that the US is still printing lots of money so thinking pretty hard for the Dow to crash at the moment or foreseeable future

 

Again I have been reluctant to mention some matters but these quotes stuck in my memory.

Getting or saying one is going to get advice is one thing. Following it is another.

Lots of heavy words and suggestions on this thread.

Adviser strongly suggesting super. Advice not followed only a variation of maybe

Run things past adviser. For two or so years the opportunity to that has existed. Advice not apparently followed.

So what are the chances?

To be brutal, I'm out of this thread. No desire to read any more of it.

 

“If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks.” John Bogle

 

Good post and food for thought. Thanks..


-Frank

 

Thought is good but at some point action will be required.

 

@SatayKing I can understand your frustration. Here you are and everyone else trying to help and I just don't seem to be doing much about taking the advise.

Thing is, 2 years ago I inherited some money. 2 Years ago I didn't even know what an index was or what the All ORDS were or what a GFC was. All this was new to me.

So here I am with no super and an inheritance that I need to use to retire on. I can't buy a house and retire on the rent because the income won't be enough.

I'm 'competing' for a better choice of words with some of you here with 20+ years experience in investing.

The only mistake I can actually afford to make right now, is the mistake of not doing anything, I feel I can't afford any other mistake because time is against me.. This is why I'm overthinking and over analysing everything I suppose.

I did invest $500k last December 2018 but then pulled it out in April 2019.. Now last December I didn't even know what a candlestick chart was and didn't even know enough to analyse ANY chart to be able to get any idea of where the market was at. All I remember was advisors saying to me 'Frank the market is doing you a favour at the moment'.

But now that I do and I look at where the market was last December 2018, in hindsight I should have invested ALL my money then because looking from Dec 2018 and back I can clearly see the market was 30% or so lower than what it is now..

And now that the market is sky high I'm again reluctant because I don't want to watch it go down over the next 12 months. Anyway the plan is as I said before, to just buy into dips through 2020 and DCA a little every month.

Sorry if I've stressed you out.. :-(


-Frank

 

@Frank Manno . Don’t be sorry mate. Yes it might be frustrating for others to have watched your less than ideal journey over the last 2 years, but at the end of the day your actions or lack of actions have only really affected you.

And I am sure you are kicking yourself over the missed opportunities over the last 2 years but so what. All that matters now is what you do moving forward and not looking back at what you missed.

I am sure you have learnt heaps in that time and while I still don’t think you have reached the ideal mindset just yet you at least have a plan to get back in the game.

As much as people are getting frustrated with you I think you should keep posting your journey and thoughts on here. I honestly think it will help you even if it is a slow process to get your head in the right space. I say this because its what I have done over the last 12 months. And over this year there were times I felt like I was going in circles. But finally in the last month or so it really all started to click and become clearer for me.

You just might need more of everyone telling you the same stories and repeating the same lessons over and over from different angles before it finally clicks for you.

I can understand members getting frustrated after having offered so much advice over the last 2 years. But I think just continually putting your thought process in writing and getting any feedback even if it’s the same feedback is helpful. I know it worked for me and I hope it will eventually make things much clearer for you.

Keep at it mate, I am rooting for you.

 

If degree of difficultly were the only measure of success then what you just posted is a plan within itself..

Don't worry about people who give paid advice ,nor when others tell you ''Frank the market is doing you a favour at the moment '' because if you print your post out and pin in on your office wall then just before you have built up the courage to press the buy button and join the waiting game re read a few small items within that post ..

 

If it helps, I'm in kind of a similar situation. We got an absurdly high offer for our house last year, refused it, then got an even absurder offer which we took.

Together with other ducks lining up we suddenly found ourselves with a lump sum large enough to provide for a sensible retirement but not quite large enough to provide for a stupidly excessive one.

Suddenly, the task stopped being trying to grow our stash, and instead became preserving it, whilst still providing the somewhat excessive income we need.

Like yourself, I chatted to a financial planner. Their recommendations were typical and what most accept, but I'm a control freak and had learned just enough here to believe I could do a similar job for less.

But I was nervy. I thought (and still do) that the market was overly frothy. Like yourself I did some half-hearted dabs in and out to capture dividends and imaginary tax breaks.

By pure fluke all of these dabbles paid off.

Then, on the advice of one tax expert, I sold everything so we could set up a trust.

Turns out a second tax expert said that wasn't the best idea so I was back to deciding whether to buy back in.

But I now know that if I hadn't taken the plunge six months ago I would have missed out on $350K of realised capital gains and dividends and would be looking at paying $150K more for the same exposure.

So I've chucked it all back in.

I've done vast amounts of research on asset allocation and am comfortable with what I've chosen. My portfolio is way more conservative than most here, but I'm confident that even if there is a nasty slump it will drop less than most, and recover faster than most.

I've done just as much research on timing, DCA etc etc. Most of the research compares DCA to trying to time the market, but there are a few that directly apply to our situation, ie lump sum in all at once, or drip feed.

The dollar-cost averaging myth: why lump sum investing usually wins - Morningstar.com.au

If your timeline for needing the loot is a few years or less you shouldn't be thinking about equities anyway.

If it is longer term, jump in.

This is not advice etc etc.

 

You seem to have / have had the same mindset as me and for the same reasons. You see everyone? I'm not crazy it's not just me -

Because you were in a similar situation and say that you are now comfortable with your asset allocation and that it's conservative, I'm curious what your asset allocation actually is now. Would you mind sharing either here or in private please?

I'm comfortable with what my advisor has chosen for me and will be going with his advice but I'm curious what you've done.

But what else is there other than equities?

I say this because I am trying to reach a retirement figure of around $75k and I don't have enough capital to do that via other investment options (that I can think of).

If I was happy to settle on less than $75k, say $50k then yes I could consider other options. Hence part of my dilemma.

I'm not being greedy I just want to be comfortable if I can and help my kids a bit with a few handouts during the year as well.. $5k here, $10k there for them for things.. . If I can't then I can't and I -will- settle for less than $75k per year.

In a nutshell this has been the dilemma really, trying to raise $75k per year in a few years, say 5.. where I don't have enough capital to do so, where I would need to buy into a market now that is at an all time high.


-Frank

 

Ingenious. Using another's action over some six months to justify inaction for close to 30 months.

 

Hi Frank Manno , with so many people having helped you over the past number of years with very helpful advice / experience / etc. and we are up to 34 pages on this topic, what has your financial advisor finally recommended for you to achieve your financial goal?

 

Mate I see this all the time...I hear people in their %0s saying they do not want top put extra into super ...I reckon Super has to be key part of your strategy just having assets in property is not good.

I have learnt this the hard way...over 80% of my assets is in property..over time I would like this to change to be 50% in super,shares, cash, fixed interest, and bonds.

I reckon el Franko does not realize Super is the best investment past 60...even if it changes...the tax benefits will be pretty good.

 

WHY?..Frank you can't be serious as i just did a quick track of this post and it's no good looking back but the funds you had back then no matter where you invested will have been above 11 per-cent on a compound gain range now ..That's the only question i would be asking your FP as there are several gold coast based hedge funds us based but based on the gold coast that offer above 20 percent per annum that keep sending me offers..

 

Have a look at Franks avatar that might explain a few things....

 

@Burgs, to be honest I don't think it matters what the OP's advisor has recommended.

First of I don't want Frank to fail. No way.

Do I consider he will achieve what he wants? Not a chance.

This thread is like one of those absorbing thrillers. You don't want to watch but you must as you need to see how it ends.

I've done this mentally and have no intention of putting it down in a post but consider the time line of the OP's "wants" and "objectives" and the reaction when some others have pointed out those are not realistic. Look how it changes.

Then consider the reaction to what is viewed by many as reasonable regarding superannuation.

What does all this indicate? I'm afraid I know the answer and it isn't a wonderful.

Also look at the time frame to achieve the "wants." So when that time is reached everything is static and remain that way for evermore? Really??? Myopic.

Said it previously, I got a bad feeling about how it's going to end, especially since the OP has asked in the past about which stocks are good for speculating - there is a thread the OP created on that subject.

Taking it all in total, what is the likely result UNLESS there is a complete shift in attitude? That's the underlying nuance I touched on in @Big A's thread where I quoted @Isla_Nublar's post. A need to understand yourself, recognise, admit and accept your failings and the need to change due to the financial damage you cause yourself.