Mr Martin North is taken to task by AFR

Yeah, I bought a business in June 2007 (complementary to my existing business, merged the two in 2010 and then sold the lot to retire that year) AND I bought a block of units in February 2008 (our biggest property purchase at that time and we still own them).

My view is:- ignore the noise and just take action when you feel it is right

 

Not sure if I am a contrary optimist or an optimistic contrarian .

Does either guarantee me double the money?

 

All I know is eternal pessimists are poison, poison, poison.

 

I cannot agree enough with the sentiments you espoused. Group think?!

Thankfully, my son does not subscribe to pessimism, despite all his socio-economic studies and exposure to liberal thinking. I know this is getting off topic but the broad-brush linkage with Martin North is as follows:

North Martin -> continual negative slant against housing growth -> economic (and often with parallel environmental) pessimism -> whinging new migrants from developed countries with superior economic models -> opposition to private investments in housing and often with parallel advocacy for more social investments in housing

This is a wonderful country that individuals can indulge in all sorts of pursuits and indulgence. The forte of PC is that it is a wonderful forum for pursuit of knowledge to gain financial independence and for the broadening of minds.

 

This should be made into a flowchart of what NOT to fall sucker too.

 

I've got a decent amount of money saved up in term deposits and savings accounts. A few years back I was going to invest it in ETFs and LICs, and perhaps even put some towards a commercial property fund, but chose not to because of high P/E ratios and a perception of things being late in the market cycle. By trying to time the market I've lost money. I won't be making that mistake again.

There's a reason why successful people generally align with the advice in the quote above.Timing markets is a fool's game, there's simply way too many variables at play. Yes there was a brilliant, perceptive minority that saw the GFC coming but I'd be surprised if even any of them could predict the timing or reasons behind next recession/depression.

 

If only it were "liberal" thinking .... Most of contemporary thinking is anti-liberty.

 

You are either in the market or out of it. But standing on the sidelines ridiculing the economy when it sails past for decades makes you look pretty stupid. I cant think of a single person who wouldnt want to go back to 2000 and buy into the market and go "All in".

I have heard this same babble since 1980s. Hell who would pay $200K for a house !!!!

Meanwhile those who were renting in 2000 have now paid probably $350K for something that isnt theirs still.

 

Imo, I think way too many people try to reduce risk with their investing by looking at the broader economy, giant markets, macro events etc. For me, these are not the factors I would want to be looking at to reduce my risk. I am more interested generally where is each state on the crazy property clock. Then how can I find value in individual markets.

Australia has thousands of markets. I actually don't see them as markets, but rather companies. Take Surry Hills Sydney 'company' for example. Do I like the fundamentals of the 'company'. Growth drivers for the company? Any add value potential to the company? Whats the demographic like in the company? renters in the company? Supply and demand of the company? etc.

I like to buy into companies I feel there is current and longer term good value. As well as being able to create value for the company.

ha!..many prob think i'm nuts. oh well

 

Great post.

 

The GFC hardly touched Australia. When you consider USA, UK and many other European countries, their financial system collapsed and their banks were closing down overnight. Cities and towns were in dire financial poverty. Australia managed to avoid this situation and whilst understandable in some ways, I don't think many people in Australia fully understand or appreciate the global severity of the GFC but the world does appear to have bounced back since as though the GFC has been forgotten.

 

Totally disagree. My business was, at one stage, sitting with $1M loss. We had to sack a whole stack of people and gave those remaining a 10% pay cut across the board (no if’s or but’s).

It was one of the worst times in my working life. I felt absolutely terrible but tough times require tough decisions.

That “halted the bleeding”and we were able to “turn the ship around”.

Never want to go through that again.

 

Apologies, poorly worded and no offence intended for individuals who were affected. I'm not sure I can reword it better without causing further offence so I'll leave it and not even try.

 

Fact is though australia went into the gfc at a low point in the property cycle for syd and melb.

wonder if the experienced members would have recognised parts of the us market for what it was in 2007? Opinion on sydney turned here around 2015 or so.

 

But that's the thing mate, I'm investing in Australia. Those other countries don't concern my investment decisions.

No one in Australia who wants/dreams to buy a family home in X suburb cares what's going on in Ireland or the states.