VIC Melbourne - Update please

Yep. He’s not worth bringing up that’s why. More famous for his dinners with gangsters and vehemently dismissing everything Dan Andrews says rather than any credible policies or meaningful actions. Sad

 

If things pan out the way I think there will be a window for buying in late 2022 and early 2023. After that all the melbournites who abandoned ship for Qld may realise jobs are harder to come by. Then over 2023 and 2024 they will come back.

I actually think it is Tasmania which may lose the most property wise. Followed by Sydney houses. It about affordability and jobs. Let's see ..

 

as mentioned, anecdotal observation, many professionally and personally have had a terrace or similar inner dwelling, started their family and now seek space. they're sitting on equity and want to move further out but equally enjoy the amenity they've become a custom and don't want to be too far from family support. this is the demand that will continue. the eastern suburbs have always been desirable and possibly even aspirational for some.

there are plenty with the pipe dream of going coastal and it's unrealistic for the vast majority. those traditional employment opportunities will continue to be centred on cbd and returning to the office, not merely to undertake work tasks but build relationships with customers, whom are also being told to get back to the office, but also develop internal networks and rebuild the corporate culture.

you achieve much more with a five minute face to face in the corridor, 25 min coffee etc than you do on a silly zoom, webex, teams call -- most are fatigued with working this way, the hybrid model suits many and with a commute required, those transport links for middle ring will easily shine through.

the demand continues as folks move out, quality move-in sanctuaries are in limited supply. those "upgraders" know what they want, they've got the cash, stability and capacity to pay -- so they do.

 

Why do you say jobs are hard to come by? You know facts or just blowing in the wind?

 

in your original post you stated wfh as being one of the main drivers of the middle ring but now you say it doesn’t contribute to the growth on coastal because it’s not achievable for the vast majority? Why would I move from an inner suburb like Hawthorn, Armadale, South Yarra, Richmond etc to Box Hill? The prices are far higher and I’m still in the suburbs except now I’m 20 minutes further from the city and still have to pay for parking!

People have always had terraces in the city and then had families, they didn’t seek the suburbs you mentioned before I can’t see why they would now. The kids are in school in their current suburbs and they borrow to stay where they are/keep up appearances.

I’m sorry but I can’t see how these very limited reasons can contribute to 10% growth alone. It will take a lot more to lift these suburbs moving forward. Asian and Indian immigrants aren’t choosing Australia blindly as their no1 destination anymore and if they are it isn’t to the worlds most locked down city.

 

ha ha ha, this is singled handedly the largest reason I've seen some of the older generation return sooner

 

Melbourne has huge professional services.. financial services.. IT/Telecom base. As well some mining headquarters. It's very diversified. A lot of the people leaving would be lower skilled and more retiree types. A lot are moving because they could not stand lockdowns . A lot would have been mental health/emotional decisions. A lot would have left family and friends behind. Making a new start is fine but stats show as in the past something 50% of the younger ones move back. Let's see.

Qld is a paradise at the moment.. but once prices for houses to rent is more ..and to buy is even crazier...jobs harder to find and less pay things change. Happens every cycle.

 

But net effect is still positives.
The employment data shows that with every cycle. More positives than negative overall.
It isn’t a zero sums game.

 

Let's wait and see I reckon Brisbane houses are done by early 2023. Units and town houses maybe 2024

 

I did exactly what you've mentioned, moved from prime Prahran to Box Hill South -- larger home, larger block, better views, exceptional street "community" vibe, more room to move, parks galore, excellent transport links that are actually much faster for me to get to work both driving & train ... without any doubt our lifestyle and living arrangements have vastly improved and we've not conceded or sacrificed one item -- there is nothing I miss about our former home and prior to that we lived in south yarra and our first apartment on st kilda rd. so like many before us, have lived the "inner city life" and it was time to get out of the rat race.

I'm originally from Qld, more than happy to visit or have an extended stay but have absolutely no desire to live in a Vic coastal area...

 

Hopefully the IPs get some attention as people head back to work in a few weeks. I've had some vacancy recently and rental prices plunged on the apartment. I see some upwards movement in prices this coming year though.

 

Agree. Wfh is overrated and the majority of well paid jobs will require office attendance 2 days a week. And can you expect to wfh full time for ypur whole career and expect to climb the corp ladder? You can wfh part time from mornington, not from the gold coast. And the incentives to revitalise the cbds will be big, dont think govts will let them become ghost towns.

 

I know a few who have left for qland. All moved with current jobs (only contracts), and have a buffer because they sold in melb for 1mill more than what they buy in qland. But yea, jobs could be a prob down the track.

 

Late feb. Thats only next month.

 

Victoria Is The Biggest Population Loser During COVID - Will It Recover?

Kind of what im thinking

 

Yet during beginning of Covid our Government told foreign students/immigrants on certain visa to go home, these people were thrown under the bus.

Australia is no longer top destination, I believe its US, UK, Canada

….. its OK ….. we stuffed up…. We want you back, I am sure they are rushing back me thinks not