Melbourne Update: Lockdown Continues :(

Building stimulus packages, where we seeing higher sales

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www...t-continues-on-road-to-recovery-c-1212359.amp

 

I think it made sense when we had un-controlled outbreak. The whole point was to stop people moving and interacting, and travelling outside of their own suburb.

However, it doesn't make sense to keep that degree of restriction in place for potentially 12 weeks, right in the middle of Spring, when COVID new case numbers are steadily falling.

It's an example of a low-risk occupation which needs to be brought back to life after Sunday, in my opinion. Of course, this would mean revisiting the 5km bubble restriction, and possible reasons to travel outside of that for prospective tenants/buyers.

None of what is happening right now has an easy answer or solution.

 

Area and type has a huge impact, CBD apartments are seeing some massive reductions some well over 25% AND still vacant for months. But some of the outer suburbs it's only $10pw or no reduction. Vacancy is a big factor right now - I think that's more so because of the restrictions and not so much pricing.

When we went to stage 3 interest dropped, it picked up again towards the middle/end June when restrictions lifted and that 2 week period was pretty good with numbers - but then declined again in stage 3 2.0.

Yep, I don't expect it to change either.

 

There was an oversupply of rental apartments prior to covid, this is now the nail in the coffin for these landlords

 

It really does depend on the suburb. One area I am keeping my eye on has steady vacancy rates around 0.6%. You could argue they have slightly fallen.



Another area in the outer east has vacancy rates around 1.2%




However, CBD/Southbank/Docklands are not looking so good. And even prior to COVID, the vacancy rates were increasing

 

How has this impacted on you, your business?

 

@Lil Skater

Ok
This is the first time I have read the link posted , REIV
https://reiv.com.au/policy-resource...ns-spurs-moratorium-ban-by-real-estate-agents

Now I understand the real impact

in a nutshell

landlords, extension of rental moratorium, 6 months. Rental agreements will need to be reduced. Landlords have no relief

REIV asking government to allow one on one inspections, without this they can not proceed to lease or sell.

Private inspections are far safer than going to supermarkets

So why is this completely ignored, when the solution is clear and will help this industry move on with no impact. It just makes no sense

 

@MTR it’s crazy, isn’t it?

It’s really hard to navigate and explain. I’ve had to make a lot of very difficult phone calls in the last 6 months, but yesterday was pretty sucky for those with vacant properties because we had all hoped we’d go back to private inspections next week.

Don’t get me started on the moratorium or the convoluted process that now entails. Fortunately I’ve only had one that has needed to be escalated because most people are reasonable, but that one is a mess.

 

...... yes it sucks, why my blood boils when I hear this stuff, as its ruining people’s ability to make a living and destroying lives

 

At present, there are 4 reasons to leave home, and a 5km radius to operate under.

As soon as you open up more customer-facing businesses, you will have people coming up with more and more reasons to leave their homes and interact with others, and to leave their 5km bubble.

I think the real issue is Stage 4 effectively being extended through until late October. If they limited the extension for just the extra 2 weeks, and then lift the 5km bubble and have some re-opening of low-risk activities such as real estate.

This would be a more sensible strategy IMO and allow more businesses to operate sooner.

 

Dan Andrews has taken a few wrong turns but it has to be remembered the local lockdown was tried by him and failed at the outset of lockdown 2. It is why 'we are where we are'. That didn't really work because it was difficult to enforce and everyone has a reason to do something and to go somewhere. Once people start moving around the city, the inevitable is going to happen - and did.

If local lockdown are to be tried again in future, for them to work it needs active and constructive support by all politicians and business leaders, not just idle and glib talk.

 

Thing is people are losing hope, I think if I owned a business I would be suicidal watching my life go down the drain

 

i believe We have to be very careful about the blame game.

why?

because if we look at Victoria .....many deaths were actually contributed by the government

 

Let’s look at some Australia statistics and some recent economic forecasts:

1. Bankruptcies are down from around 700 per month in February and March this year to around 400 per month in April, May and June (I assume due to the Government’s moratorium).
2. Bankruptcies in Australia averaged 670 per month from 1999 until 2020. So, January and February were around average.
3. The worst month in the last 20 years was February 2012 with 1.123 bankruptcies, nearly double the average.
4. The best month in the last 20 years was January 1999 with 217 bankruptcies, about half of April, May and June this year.
5. Bankruptcies are expected to be 710 per month by the end of the September quarter (according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations), about average.
6. Bankruptcies in Australia to stand at 600 per month in 12 months time, slightly below average.
7. In the long-term, the bankruptcies are projected to trend around 590 per month in 2021 and 630 per month in 2022, about half the worst month in the last 20 years.

Australia Bankruptcies | 1999-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Historical | Chart

I am not an economist nor do I have access to any models nor analysts.

I found the above interesting and maybe things will not be as dire as some people think.

 

Government is propping up business’ at the moment with jobkeeper etc

its just far too early to know what the real impact will be on business and economy. However job losses do continue to rise

 

I would imagine the economists took all of that into account with their modelling.

 

No idea

Just what @Lil Skater posted will have such an impact on this industry alone, and there are many more