VIC Melbourne market is hot 2021

What are people's thoughts on the new homebuyer fund? They govt says it will be limited to just 3000 per year which admittedly will have some impact on the market, but perhaps not a huge one. I guess the most pertinent question is - does it have any staying power? I can't imagine the government, especially under Andrews, will ever get smaller so is this the start of something even bigger? If so, the post-lockdown glut that hits the market may present some great buying opportunities if this will eventually cause some upwards pressure when operating down the line.

 

Compared to 3 years ago
32 Braid Hill Road, Macleod, Vic 3085 https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-macleod-129394010

 

When 70% Hits……More supply coming to market?????

 

Id think so. Melb still the market most at risk from immigration loss and people moving to the SEQld imho. Who knows though. It seems the ppty market goes the opposite to what people expect, maybe because its driven by low rates and fomo and has long been disconnected from fundamentals. South east queensland as an investment makes me nervous though cause of climate change etc. Flooding, a few decent hurricanes, less beautiful beaches after erosion and rock walls might negate the paradise effect ..... but maybe im just jealous.

 

I think I'm finally working out how to read the market ....

When negative impact things happen - prices rise
Immigration decrease=price rise
Recession=price rise
Unemployment rise= price rise

Looks like my high school economics teacher got it wrong

 

Youre exactly right. One word. Stimulus. Thats all this boom is built on. Ditto post gfc. Actually pretty much the last 25 years. Ourpolicy makers never let a crisis go to waste.

 

except affordability and ir rises will take care of this

Not too many people can service debt if median blows out and income lags.
Of course you still need to service debt, that little chestnut

2023/2024 gamechanger

 

Medians have been outpacing incomes for 25 years, lowering interest rates bridge the gap. 2 years ago we all said rates couldnt go lower, they did. If mortgages go from 2.5 pct to 1.25 pct, thats 100pct more borrowing power there. Govts across the world have been can kicking for decades, i dont expect this to change until they cant do it any more.

 

yes
but financing has changed right??

at the end of the day if u cant service u cant buy. Interest rates will go up, they are calling 23/24??? Gravy train will eventually stop

 

I wonder about this too.

SEQ doesn't get cyclones.

I think waterfront property might lose some appeal ( storm surge? ), but flooding is already a factor, and we do have the ability to forget between floods!

In terms of drought and fire, the southern states are very badly affected. Fire is creeping north.

 

What are people’s thoughts on good old style apartments in Melbourne close to transport, parks and amenities? Maybe Kew, Hawthorn, Kooyong etc? We have a nice freestanding Villa unit nice house but area is a bit meh, thought about buying an apartment to move into in a few years time. I feel like the price difference is so high that for a couple with no kids and no plans on having them it is hard to justify stretching for a house. Only benefit I see is long term selling and benefiting from no cgt. But could happily live in an apartment and invest the difference. Guess the question is buy an apartment now while they are low or wait until we are ready to move?
We would like to buy something like this but the unrenovated version, then do the renovation ourself when we move into it.

13/60 Princess Street, Kew, Vic 3101
https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-vic-kew-136776754

Be good to hear people’s thoughts?

 

I drove past many in construction apartments in Kew. And can’t believe, they are sold out even though the price $1 million +.
I also guess those older apartments would enjoy some capital gain, especially with larger floor area and on ground floor (has its own yard). Find those which older rich people would like. Downsize from their big house and would like to stay in the area.

 

Sold for 1,682.500. More than 20% above top range.

Way to underquote…

 

How do find out sold price?

 

I didn’t attend the auction. REA updated it in Corelogic

 

Lets see how many listings we see this spring: 42700 @ midday 18/10

 

Actually drove past last night on the way home and saw the sold sticker(I like driving through random streets just to see if there's anything interesting happening). Had to go back to my post of 1.5M (over 10% off for me). Maybe neighbour or could know a friendly arborist or just two people wanted it (that's all it takes)

Fomo definitely out of the market for B Graders and below (A grade is always hot). Seeing a bit of pass in action and auctions selling at auction just a few bids after declared "on the market". When the market is hot you see 10% price movements between comparable houses in weeks. Definitely not the case now. Seeing a bit of weakness (not dropping but growth limited) in the 800K (25km east of CBD) to 1.5M house market.(15-20km east of CBD)

 

https://www.realestate.com.au/property//235-union-rd-surrey-hills-vic-3127
1.075 to 3.75 in 8 years. Done up, but still ...... and on a busy road.

 

What would you price the reno at?

 

Now that Melb is out of lockdown going to be interesting …….