Melbourne exodus real or not?

So what’s the consensus? Melbourne exodus real or not? I personally know 2 people (with their family) who have left melbourne- one for good (came to NSW) and the other for 6 months (WA).
But I’m not in Melbourne, so don’t know what’s happening at the ground level.

 

Family member has a property in Melbourne, and one in country VIC..won't be coming back.

 

I can only add my anecdotal knowledge, but I'm in Melbourne and do know a few who have left or are about to, as soon as borders open. 1 couple (work colleague) have their family in Sydney so have put their Melb house up for rent. Our workplace is going to mostly wfh, and it's a large healthcare nfp, so said colleague will working from home in Sydney. My hairdresser jumped ship back home to Perth for good during lockdown. Personally, we live inner bayside but are moving out north‐east towards Yarra valley. Others definite attitude changes but I think people are still waiting to see what workplaces do with on site requirements. We're still being directed to wfh until the new year so a lot of people don't know what their new office hours will be.

 

Had a mate move to WA (lost job here)
other than him i havnt seen anyone else move.but i do know that it is a real thing

Speaking to agents around Mildura, most houses they have been selling are people moving from melbourne - and that wont be an isolated case

@JL1 is probably the only poster on here who monitors the markets using statistics and i believe they back up my thoughts that Melbournes property market might not be as solid as punters think

as much as the media will spruik the market in melbourne elephant in the room (immigration) cannot be ignored
melbourne will be down around 120,000 people from their projected growth by early next year, thats 60,000 dwellings that would of been built for no-one! -

 

I think the bigger exodus is the Melbourne to regional. My mother in-law rents down the bellarine peninsula and was looking to buy. Properties were being put under offer within a week, a number unconditional.

In the end she purchased but at top price.

 

yeah well thats the number thats hard to quantify
How many people have actually left and will stay left!?
Obviously theres still huge buyer demand in Melbourne so it will be interrsting to see what happens , especially with rates so low
Possibly rents will have large drops across the board if people are able to borrow to get into their first homes in a less competitive market

Its looking unlikely that there will be immigration next year as well so id be weary about investing in melbourne right now as confidence seems quite high?

 

Markets within markets: one here in my building for $1.6m but I don't think much of the floor plan
https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-vic-docklands-134850350

But for anyone who can stretch to $25m, check this one out. Only 8 parking spaces though
Level 82/7 Riverside Quay, Southbank VIC 3006 | Domain

 

Spot on.

The big shift is from Melbourne to the regions.

People from Melbourne buying site unseen in the regions, for example.

And the above will only accelerate further once the border restrictions are fully relaxed too.

 

Depends who you speak to? retirees, those who have ties elsewhere, those who can wfh permanent, investors are probably looking elsewhere.

But those of asian backgrounds and other established former migrants, they are all looking to buy or upgrade ppor or obtain their first property. The impending baby boom and ageing parents who will need to move here one day to stay with the only child is driving strong demand in school zone areas 3-4 bedders with 2+ bath. I have never seen so many of my asian colleagues of 25-35 age looking to buy.

Markets within markets. I am also assuming most posters here would be of anglo background, that demographic would have no issues moving to regional or other states and dare say put off by the fact that they have become the minority in some suburbs.

This is what I am seeing on the ground. But ofcourse certain regionals are hot stuff right now - low rates and vacancies will push up prices for sure. Dyor!

 

I kind of get the impression that a very large proportion of the melbourne based posters on here are from asian backgrounds.

The whole thing with anglo people moving regional isnt so much a race issue. To me its a congestion issue and just wanting more space.
when i was growing up in melbourne everyone had a 600-800 sqm block
Now days most are lucky to have a townhouse. I think a lot of people just miss their space or would like their kids to have what they had

cheers

 

Hmm not sure how to answer that one...!
All i will say is that there is a lot more chat about Melbourne areas with high Asian population than areas without
Anyway might be getting off topic now

FWIW i think Melbourne market will be fine medium term but im seeing some ahort term headwinds.
Even if they can get people in to the country next year it surely wont be at the same rate as the last ten years
The building industry will take a big hit at some point and to me that is a huge part of the Melbourne economy

 

Yesterday I spoke with my real estate agent friend, who operates in the outer north east of Melbourne about 25-35 km from CBD. His view was that especially the houses with the large blocks (about 1 acre) and hobby farms up to 30acres are highly sought after by 'escapees' from the inner city and even CBD. The 12 week lockdown and working from home has made people to rethink what do they want from the house and lifestyle. His view was these people wants space around them and the bigger house with the study (even multiple studies) Also swimming pools are high on the demand list Also the areas that he operates are still in commuting distance to CBD, especially, if you do not need to do it every day.

He said that he has a 'waiting list' of the interested buyers for these type of properties and pretty much every house gets multiple offers and sells within 2 weeks of the listing and according to him the properties are attracting higher prices than pre-COVID. Also a few areas have recorded the area's highest ever property prices in Sep-Nov period.