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Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 30th Jun, 2020.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    what’s really weird is many countries who went into lockdown to save the elderly actually threw their elderly under the bus to save their health systems. Why its difficult to make sense of how and what is happening. Not completely rationale
     
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  2. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    That wasn’t my question or statement.
    I am very specifically talking stage 4 lockdown.
    My group of friends is immensely relevant as a large portion are tradies who based on what the guidelines are should in no way be working. All of them are business as usual.

    Let me give you just 1 example (I have over 50). My mate is getting a pool installed. I said “bad luck about the pool”. He said “what do you mean? The pool is going in next week”.
    Yep pool installations....
     
  3. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    It is a very difficult one in my opinion @MTR. Involves both moral and ethical issues which impact on economic ones. That is the dilemma which is facing Governments. I'm pretty confident they are aware of it too but we've never had to face a situation such as the one we have now.

    Some refer to Post-Covid but I wonder if there will be such a thing. The normal could well be the one we have now. All bets may well be off the table. If so.........
     
  4. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    i have read examples of tradespeople on housing sites who have scaled back....lockdown 4 and how its hurting their livelihood. We can disagree but at the end of the day you cant shut down a country and not expect an impact. Its early days, we will see the fall impact of this in due course.

    Victoria stage four restrictions: How COVID lockdown will affect property and construction industry - realestate.com.au
     
  5. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    All the builders I talk too in NSW have not slowed down since the Pandemic began. In fact most are busier than ever believe it or not.
    Most people (not all) have more money than ever due to the stimulus and not losing there jobs but look out when the stimulus tap is turned off.
    Government need a vaccine or they have monumentally stuffed up in my opinion, and thats not even considering if we are unlucky enough to get more outbreaks.
     
  6. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Heard or seen?
    I have 5 builds in my street alone.
    Couldn’t be busier. I know one of the builders and speak to him almost daily when walking the dogs. He said business as usual...

    Another mate does balustrades on big commercial sites. He has conceded 6 weeks off work. Funnily enough he made the 25% cut rule. Turns out he doesn’t yet know anyone on site who has been stood down......hmmmmm

    Don’t believe everything you read.
    It’s a different story when you hear what’s going on on the ground.

    Shall I keep going? OK my mate owns a metal fabrication business. He is deemed “essential” as supplies a few paint locking rings for Dulux.
     
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  7. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    I’m not saying businesses have not been effected. I’m saying I’m yet to hear of anyone Effected that wasn’t already effected in the latest lockdowns.

    And I’m looking. I’m asking everyone.
     
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    OK, that’s good
    I just posted a link where Premier is stating that construction industry will continue but it will be scaled back in lock down 4?? So is this law?
     
  9. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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    What is the 25% cut rule
     
  10. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Policed by whom?
    The unions? Hahahaha best laugh I’ve had all day.

    The other big one is the shut down of non essential services. I can guarantee that 95% of businesses that are not involved in retail, tourism, hospitality which were already decimated can show some kind of evidence they support the essential service supply chain.
     
  11. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    25% of site capacity.
    So if a site has 100 trades working on it then 25 are only allowed onsite at any given time.

    Which how on earth are they even policing that?
    And do they even want to police that?
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    policing??? right , see what you mean

    I guess they are way too busy policing people who are not wearing masks and checking on those who should be self isolating
     
  13. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    @MTR im not having a Go.
    I just do my research and speak to people. I work in recruitment, I have friends that work in recruitment.
    My best mate is a director for a large blue collar recruitment agency. Even he was sweating bullets with the stage 4 lockdowns. Spoke to him 2 days ago and looks like not a single employee will be stood down.

    You of all people are immensely skeptical of this whole CV (which is totally fair) yet post mainstream media articles like gospel. Just because Nine News says something doesn’t mean it has any merit.
    And just because our premier says something is “the law” doesn’t mean it is when you sleep with the unions.
     
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  14. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Good point. I think we never really had a chance to "open up" prior to stage 4, so those people/businesses largely stayed shut.

    We need to keep in mind a huge bunch of people in "non-essential work" are still BAU WFH so no change there and in full employment.

    The main hit would be the big construction projects form what I see.

    The Y-man
     
  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    I posted the link regarding cut back on construction sites? But whether is happening I dont know??? As OP said who is policing this??
    ...... and Labor gvt in bed with unions???
     
  16. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    This is the key really.
    IMHO lockdowns don't kill the economy - the lack of policing does. If having no lockdowns has no effect on the economy, let's wait to see Brazil and Sweden (and parts of USA?).

    I have people in Taiwan - arguably one of the most locked down places on the planet - yet there has been almost no job loss, shops, restaurants, everything stayed open (with social distancing in place) - the main impact was overseas tourism, which isn't a huge market there anyway..

    It has a population the size of australia - yet has to date has had 479 confirmed cases and 7 deaths - that's what Victoria get's in a day.

    Their secret was a super fast and hard shut down of borders - brutal and non-compassionate, leaving thousands of their nationals overseas in limbo, turning away cruise ships, prevent the landing of planes, no repatriation, nudda - but it saved their economy because hardly any cases came in (helps that they are the size of victoria completely surrounded by water).

    ANY case suspected on the island was effectively detained, heavily policed, with huge fines even if you poked your head out of the door if you were in isolation.

    But it meant everyone else could go about as if nothing had happened except to maintain precautionary social distancing, spraying hands, taking temperature, and wearing masks - again compliance is very high because enforcement is strict.

    Sure Australia is much bigger - but if we had brutally shut down our borders overnight - no warning, no letting people in at the last minute, leaving families split up, and leaving people left in limbo - we would not have needed quarantine hotels, we would not have had cruise ships and planes importing cases.

    The Y-man
     
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  17. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    My wife's work just took on 2 graduate interns - darned if I know how they are going to do induction etc!!! :eek: But business is booming and they actually need them....

    The Y-man
     
  18. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    Taiwan is amazing. And huge kudos to them for having so few cases. Large population in a small area yet they have done so well.

    And... they have a female leader. Very well managed response.

    It would be good if more Aussies see that country, but it really isn't advertised as a destination. I do want to do the big #1 cycling route of Taiwan...
     
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  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Taiwan did not go into full lockdown
     
  20. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    But those countries that haven't locked down have economies that are suffering too, so either way, economies are going to suffer.