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Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 30th Jun, 2020.

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  1. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Parts of the Adelaide property market (both sales and rentals) are extremely strong right now too - it's mostly Sydney and Melbourne which seem to be badly affected - I think mainly due to an oversupply of units in some areas with almost zero demand from tourists and foreign students.

    Given the strong gains that Sydney and Melbourne have had in recent years - which has not been reflected in the Brisbane/Adelaide/Perth markets - it's not really that surprising that the two largest cities will see some drops while the smaller cities remain relatively strong (or at least, less weak).

    Over the medium to long term, it will be more telling how the jobs market in each state develops as the fallout from COVID-19 becomes more clear. Again, I think Sydney and Melbourne are likely to be harder hit than the smaller cities - partly because of the concentration of jobs in the big cities (there's more jobs to lose) - plus they have been harder hit by COVID-19 than other cities.
     
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  2. Indifference

    Indifference Well-Known Member

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    It seems a little improbable but perhaps you don’t know many in the Airline, hospitality, restaurant, entertainment, retail, transport or tourism Industries, not to mention the associated businesses that support/supply them Including cleaners, security, maintenance, commercial property owners, travel agents etc....

    Everywhere I go in SE Qld (which is where you are) I see and hear the impacts. Whether it’s a conversation with a taxi driver, airline worker, hotel staff, barman, restaurant or retail staff, the resounding message is the same. Turnover is down significantly, staff hours being cut &/or being laid off, forced leave, reduced operating capacity due to government restrictions etc., are all having a profound affect.
     
  3. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    ...and amongst all of this, how many families and couples have a reliance on the 2nd income, even if it a part-time position?

    I read people state that house prices are going to rise. Clearly what I don't understand with these type of sentiments is how is the loss of income from the many families reliant on a dual income, going to support house prices at existing levels never mind increase them?
     
  4. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    surely someone is out of touch - that's a genuine comment in these unprecedented times.
     
  5. Foxdan

    Foxdan Well-Known Member

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    The comments on property prices going up are fanciful and by people with vested interests (buyers agents who use share market references / ideas and apply them to bricks and mortar).

    In the real world - reality is going to set in at the end of the year when jobkeeper is reduced and stimulus money dries up.

    The coming recession / depression is going to be brutal when the flow on effects hit the economy.
     
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  6. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    Good article from the SMH today about unemployment.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...t-a-job-don-t-believe-it-20200807-p55jja.html

    "Between February and May, the number of people on the JobSeeker payment (formerly Newstart) and the youth allowance rose by more than 90 per cent to 1.8 million whereas, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ quarterly survey, the number of vacant jobs fell by 43 per cent to 129,000.

    So there are about 14 jobseekers for every vacancy. Which means that, no matter how punishingly low you set the unemployment benefit – say, $40 a day – you can’t incentivise people to take jobs that don’t exist".

    It's always terrible to be unemployed but the labour market is now worse than the 1990's recession and will probably take years to recover.
     
  7. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  8. Property Baron

    Property Baron Well-Known Member

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  9. Vertigo

    Vertigo Well-Known Member

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    I agree, I am based in Brisbane ATM and many people still working, busy and business/trade is strong,

    Recently we vetted for management roles and had lower replies than normal, but perhaps many are on job keeper and sitting it out.

    However, Brisbane CBD looks like it's in dire straits
     
  10. Zimplestiltskin

    Zimplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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  11. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

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    There’s more than 3000 going, that’s a start, there’s another 500 at least that that aren’t needed.

    Can you believe the parting gift along with redundancy is a signed picture of Richard Branson and Paul Scurrah. What an absolute joke. What sane person that just got sacked of years of service will hang a reminder of the person that just sacked them?
     
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  12. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    The alternative would be to simply let Virgin fail and so around 9,000 jobs will go instead.
     
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  13. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    Anyone know people in Melbourne Lockdown 4 that have lost work?

    So many of my friends and family are business owners and tradies and not a single one has lost work. I am Ofcourse very happy as I don’t want to see anyone losing work but it’s pretty mind boggling. Seems getting an exemption in Stage4 is about as easy as it gets.
     
  14. Tom Rivera

    Tom Rivera Property Manager Business Member

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    I've got a couple of friends who are on the knife edge- their employers are trying to keep them on, but the flow on effect is making it hard. I think it will really depend how long the restrictions hang around for. I don't know anyone who's directly working for a non-essential industry though.
     
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  15. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    I thought I was out of work lecturing/tutoring, but picked up a few hours to my surprise c/o some good friends.

    Plenty of my students are out of their casual and retail jobs tho.

    The Y-man
     
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  16. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    I know a couple of people who lost work in the initial lockdowns from the hard hit industries. I’m specifically talking about the latest lockdowns though. I’m just really surprised by how many people have found loopholes to continue operating. I think the 250,000 people losing jobs in this lockdown may be grossly overstated.
     
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  17. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    The numbers dont lie, jobkeeper is costing government $130 billion and now government extended this to March 2021. Unemploymemt numbers are at 10% and I expect this to blow out further

    Melb has a population of 6 million? great your inner group have not lost their jobs but not what I am hearing from my daughter in Melb

    The full impact of this wont be known until government payments stop and how many businesses will actually reopen. Consequence of lockdowns
     
    Last edited: 9th Aug, 2020
  18. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    I get what you are implying but I do consider it more accurate to think of it as a consequence of a policy response to known health impacts of Covid-19 where by its nature an unhealthy workforce reduces the economy as well as adversely affecting the health system and the costs associated with that.
     
  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    i was referring only to job numbers

    I think the other has been done to death, the fact is lockdowns dont kill viruses but they kill economies.
     
  20. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Yep, death as a way of dealing with both.