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Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by MTR, 30th Jun, 2020.

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  1. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Whats VR? :)
     
  2. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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  3. Cousinit

    Cousinit Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I agree. Entrepreneurs are always thinking of a new angle Y Man. The world would be a rather boring place without money.
     
  4. Vanillascent

    Vanillascent Well-Known Member

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    In the legal field, the areas that seem to be hiring are planning and environment, insolvency and litigation and dispute resolution. Seems to me that the firms are gearing up for current increase in work demands in those areas and preparing for what they believe is to come. ATO is also hiring like crazy. Particularly in their top 200 and GST divisions. Legal and accounting fields are otherwise quiet it seems.
     
  5. np999

    np999 Well-Known Member

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    Check out what smh is saying about inner city suburbs:
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...financial-hit-from-covid-20200707-p559wl.html

    My take is that these so-called middle class professionals haven't been affected much. I have quite a few acquaintances in the inner west area, none of them were affected at all, and none of them have heard of any foreclosures in the inner west due to someone losing a job or one reduced hours.

    Just a headline bait, imho.

    In the rarest cases, should worst comes to worst for someone, he can always sell the richly priced house and move to rent in a cheaper suburb such as Penrith or Blacktown, no biggie, compared to what many poorer folks were suffering from and those infected patients.
     
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  6. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  7. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    So I guess looking forward, my investment in bank shares should play out as follows if everything goes to plan?

    Job losses > people unable to pay mortgage, or pay rent > home owners extend capitalising of interest > bank makes more money in the longer term (deferred but greater profit) .... I hope....

    The Y-man
     
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  8. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    A someone in real estate, banks just double your risk to resi I think. Same same exposure. Be careful holding too much if you’re already all in properties, unless you don’t mind being all in.
     
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  9. ollidrac nosaj

    ollidrac nosaj Well-Known Member

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    Intresting point by Kristina Keneally at 11:40 mark. "Our borders are shut, and we are now going to have to find it within our selves the capacity to fill these jobs that would have been filled by incoming migrants".

     
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  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Would you say the same for shares?
     
  11. Omnidragon

    Omnidragon Well-Known Member

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    Possibly although some shares are more positively correlated to properties than others. Basically around 70% of CBA’s business/assets is lending to resi. So if resi died, so would CBA. Realestate.com is another great example. Completely tied to the real estate market.

    Some shares are much less correlated, for example CKF which owns 100+ KFCs. You could almost say they’re slightly counter-cyclical. If we had a recession there’ll be more people eating KFC. Hence its share price has been flying - it’s benefitting from a lockdown where people are poorer or having to go to KFC drive thru.

    Some overseas shares give you a currency hedge. Firstly they’re not correlated with the Aus housing market specifically. If there were a global depression and Aus houses crashed, the AUD currency will fall, giving you protection if you held assets (such as shares) in “risk-off” currencies such as the USD, HKD and Japanese Yen.
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    makes sense

    interesting how AUD has had a good run lately, even hit 70. Hoping it will slide back
     
  13. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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    Looks to be out of its multiyear downtrend channel.
    Probably means we need to print more money or cut interest rates :S
     
  14. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Is that net? i.e. those (who lost jobs) - (those who found jobs)

    Actual losses look higher?

    The Y-man

    The growing list of companies shedding jobs in coronavirus-hit economy

    According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, 594,300 people lost their jobs in April. This drop was predominantly due to restrictions put in place to protect Australians from the coronavirus.

    The ABS estimated another 227,700 jobs were lost in May.
     
  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: 15th Jul, 2020
  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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  17. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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  18. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    A cynical part of me wonders if big corporates are taking the opportunity to "strip out the deadwood"

    The Y-man
     
  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Who knows?

    The sad thing is many people will lose their job and they may need new skills but wont be in a position to do this. Age will come into play

    i wonder how long job keeper will be extended?
     
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  20. SydneytoMelbourne

    SydneytoMelbourne Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely. 100%. I know of a number of places that have already done this.
     
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