Is putin finished?

You make my point. In a country the size of Russia the protests are very limited. It will take millions on the street. Not happening because there still a lot of support for Putin..at the moment. Understand that most Russians are seeing news that is entirely different to what you are.

 

Lot of support ... or ... lot of fear?

 

It seems that you can’t conceive that it’s possible that the majority of Russians currently support Putin.

Why is that ?

 

Perhaps because we know people over there who can assess the mood on the street better than some survey

But to give you a numbers example from my Belarus contact ... under Russian military oversight, Belarus held an "election" from which the Putin preferred dictator leader was "elected". The dictator claimed 80% voted for him ... truth is only 40% of eligible voters actually voted, out of fear of recrimination ... of that 40%, half voted for him ... so, in reality, only 20% of eligible voters voted for this guy.

Fear is a powerful deterrent. Especially if not only you, but your entire family, is threatened

 

No other view and tightly controlled state media... now all Mr Musk has to do is to offer free internet to Ruskis....

Imagine if that happened.....

 

You are basically repeating anecdotes from someone in Belarus that you “know” apparently. Let’s deal with Putin rather than Lukashenko.

Just because you consider him a tyrant based on your world view and information feed and biases does not mean that the majority of Russians do. It seems you can’t reconcile this as a possibility ; That Russians with a different life experience, world view, information feed and biases may not see Putin as a tyrant but as someone who rescued them from chaos and has rebuilt Russian prestige.

You probably assume I’m one of the pro Putin types on here. I’m pretty much the exact opposite. However all of the information I’m seeing is that currently the war is playing well (consider my points on information…police action, saving ethnic Russians, losses downplayed stc) with 2/3rds of the populace. This is also a generational thing - it is much less popular in the below 40s who access other info via VPN.

 

eh, kind of the libertarian approach, which is fundamentally flawed. Its fine, to a point. If the way you wanted to run your business was to pour toxic waste down the drain, I'm sure many would want to tell you how to run your business. Or equally, if you decided to annexe part of your neighbours property to build another workshop, I'm there would be people telling you that you need to run your business a different way.

If you dont want to participate in a community, then fine, go for it (become North Korea perhaps?), but we all, in some way, are part of various communities, and as such, there are agreements and protocols on interaction and behaviour.

But yeah, I do think the USA throwing their weight around autonomously and without repercussions is quickly coming to an end.

 

I seriously doubt the Russian people know what's going on. I'm sure the Putin propaganda machine is spinning a totally different narrative to the population.

 

Bingo!

 

Simply because I have quoted one source does not mean I don't have others ... suspect history will play out in weeks and months to come. Will revisit with you then

 

Ok. For the sake of clarity so that we may revisit as you propose can you please outline your thesis on what will occur in the coming weeks and months?

 

No. It is a moving operation and I will not be pinned down to something that pivots as circumstances change ... and who knows who is reading this

p.s. the Belarus example was to show that, although official figures state 80% ... reality was 20%. Figures out of these situations are not to be trusted

 

Ok, right. Prob best to stay off FSBs radar.

 

I have sources that would say the complete opposite. But let’s unpack your thinking a little bit? Imagine I’m a very popular tyrant. Imagine that I or my mates own virtually EVERY media outlet (local Facebook included). So with well oiled propaganda machine I have the majority of population on board. Right?

If he had such an overwhelming support why are all opposition leaders either pushed out of the country or worse? If I have a solid base why would I care?

See that even from basic analysis that statement doesn’t hold. If I don’t fear the opposition I’ll let it run amok. Do whatever the hell it wants. People love me.

Now if I systematically eliminated the opposition. Then gutted the court system by eliminating all judges that would NOT sing my song, that all tells me that I know I don’t have the majority supporting me. I need to eliminate anything and everything that could initiate a movement or action against me.

Doesn’t stack up

 

It’s a curious line of thought, but seems to miss the nature of the man. Give a tyrant absolute power and they will use it. In the beginning it’s to see of challengers and sure up power, in the end their mere existence is an affront. I’ve got that many skeletons in the closet that I’ll be shot if I lose power…Over time the paranoia grows. Harsher clampdowns etc.

You create a narrative that basically Putin is Russia. Russia is always persecuted, only Putin can restore our glory (and therefore pride in yourself etc). This has been the approach from the get go. Started with the false flag bombings that gave cassus Belli for the 2nd Chechen war. Putin the war hero.

You give the masses bread and circus. They know things have been far worse. Only strong Putin can stop a return to the bad old days. The Putin support base demographic is very similar to Trump/MAGA. The same people, same age group etc.

Those sources you may know who speak/communicate in English, are outward facing possibly cosmopolitan / liberal leaning are not the average Joe. It’s like liberals in California “I don’t know anyone who voted for Trump!”….yes, I don’t doubt that’s true. But that sample is not representative of the country as a whole.

Question for you. Is Xi unpopular in China ? How about the CCP ? You can see your logic has run into some difficulty….another historical example, National Socialists (NAZI) in Germany…..both totalitarian and popular!

 

I'd like to think I'd do the opposite. 6,000 is a lot of people to have in prison overnight. The more people that turn up, the harder it would be to shut them down.

 

Another point, those that imagine there is groundswell against Putin and the only reason he hasn’t been removed is because 6000 people got put in the slammer for a day or two need to study the Euromaidan protests. When you get millions on the streets, including the mums, dads and grandparents (mass mobilization) the numbers are just too great for the authorities to deal with. Then you win. The country stops.

It’s either the case that there is not yet a groundswell of support to remove Putin or the Russians are cowardly and happy to throw the future of their country in the bin to avoid some personal risk. don’t believe it’s the latter.

 

Problem is - it's not an overnight. They can be held for "up to" 15 days before being tried - and sentences have recently been anything from 3-7 years

 

Reminiscent of the increase in Gladiatorial games being held during the demise of the Roman Empire

 

Some (unconfirmed) reports coming out indicate that Russian soldiers were told they were on manoeuvres and not prepared to attack. I'm sure some would have figured it out though.

Like i said, unconfirmed, but it might partially explain the shambles of the invasion so far. Particularly when you consider that some soldiers will have family members in Ukraine.