Is Melbourne Overtaking Sydney?

Sydney and Melbourne have traditionally had a savage rivalry. However, due to Sydney's high cost of living, the Victorian capital is experiencing a revival, and Melbourne is predicted to overtake Sydney as Australia's largest city in the not-too-distant future. To make matters worse, Sydney's geography is a factor in limiting growth. The city is bordered by national parks to the north and south, while the Blue Mountains, which are also a World Heritage Area, form a natural barrier to expansion to the west. In many ways, this would be a return to Melbourne's former glory, when it was Australia's most populous city and one of the richest in the world during the gold rush of the mid-to-late nineteenth century.

We are well aware of the pandemic's health and economic effects, but the impact on our population has been equally remarkable. This is partly owing to the closure of international borders, which has resulted in a change in net international migration. That source of international migration has ceased, but if there is a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns after the border reopens, Melbourne will still overtake Sydney.

Some argue that because Melbourne is investing in social and physical infrastructure, it will become a more vibrant, diverse, and mature multicultural city, whereas Sydney will be left behind. If you ask random people on the street, they will tell you that Melbourne is the place of culture, which lends itself more to the entrepreneurial industry.

How do you feel about this? What are your impressions of Melbourne's chances?

 

Brisbane is closer to overtaking Melbourne than Melbourne is to Sydney.

 

Buckley's chance.

 

And then there was the worlds most locked down city. How long will it take for Melb to recover with 100 business’ going bust each month. Just saying its going to take years to recover, let alone overtake Syd

 

Not considering the current scenarios of being locked down for such a long time.....Melbourne is surely going to overtake Sydney...it has more things going in its favour...than against it...

 

What does overtaking mean?

Population may be bigger over time, less land locked.
Prices probably unlikely to surpass anytime soon.

 

I would not bet against Melbourne.... the number of businesses going bust will be an issue...but mostly small businesses.

What I see really strong resurgence in 2023...why...because Brisbane median will be about 850-900k...at the point they will be within 85-90% of the Melbourne median. Melbourne has a lot of high paying jobs as well as manufacturing.

You will see a lot of people from Sydney and Melbourne who moved to Brisbane realize that its not all apples as they struggle with income and as Brissie become more expensive their dreams evaporate. A lot will look at Melbourne again rather than Sydney as it will still be expensive even if it comes off 20%. Lets see....

 

People keep talking about these natural barriers but they can easily be overcome. There's a high chance the govt will resume some of the national parks for land development in the future. It's not hard to build in the blue mountains either. I've seen projects in HK where developers have built into mountains and have also seen mountains removed completely to create more land. Melbourne will also overtake Sydney within 20 years

 

i think he looks more like me than my avatar

 

I reckon Sydney will always stand-out as the place where the highest skilled and remunerated domestic and overseas migrants will be drawn to. This is because of its more prestige reputation and physical attributes like weather, the harbour etc. It is where the bulk of corporate Australia headquarters itself. This continues to drives the inner/middle ring suburbs, with a ripple effect outward. The geographical limitations will only drive prices higher due to supply constraints.

I understand why an average earner who can work anywhere might actually be better off in Melbourne or Brisbane when all things are taken into account.

 

I can't see Melbourne coming close to overtaking Sydney.

Sure Sydney is geographically contained (which means it will also stay relatively expensive), but remeber that 'Sydney' can now basically include Newcastle amd Wollongong too. A number of my own colleagues commute from both.

I don't think Sydney is the be all and end all, and although Melbourne is not without its charm I do find its hugely over hyped (personal opinion).

 

If Michael Burry could im sure he would be shorting melbourne RN

 

Ok I love Melbourne but there’s vast easily developed land especially West and North of Melbourne that’s bigger than current metropolitan Melbourne.

Capital Growth will be limited.

 

Yes .. but in covid cases and deaths!

 

Overtaking in what sense? Lived in Sydney and currently living in Melbourne.
Weather-wise, I'd go back to Sydney in a heartbeat. How I envy Sydney peeps having picnics in lockdown
In terms of affordability, Melbourne is a more realistic choice (but so is QLD as long as you can find work).

 

Perhaps Melbourne may overtake Sydney in population, but given Sydney is more geographically constrained(national parks north and south, and blue mountains to the west), Sydney will continue to have high capital growth.
As far as international attraction, Sydney has the harbour, Harbour Bridge etc.

 

Mid levels and the peak, expensive as

 

Being a Melbournian who has lived in Sydney for over 6 years, the answer is an emphatic no in terms of value and prestige.

People have this argument around which is a better city. I love Melbourne, it's my home town, but it does not hold a candle to Sydney in many fields. The weather is infinitely better, the natural beauty is infinitely better, the amount of property next to pristine parks and beaches is infinitely better. I'm not saying Melbourne can't have good weather, parks, natural beauty, beaches etc. Just that Sydney's are MUCH better. Yes you can argue Melbourne has better sports, restaurants, cafe's etc. But Sydney has all of those things too, but unfortunately outside of global warming, you ain't making Melbourne's weather like Sydney.

Sydney has a lot of restrictions on supply. Melbourne is flat and wide - the ability to grow out (and up) is much easier, meaning supply will always be higher, and prices will be lower. I am far from a real estate expert, but hopefully someone who knows far more than me can back that up as a generalisation.

Living in Sydney now though, I do look at Brisbane in a new light. Amazing weather, but doesn't have the economy and the culture that Melbourne and Sydney have. If I could get an equal paying job in Brisbane, and my partner was open to it - to be honest, I'd consider moving there.

 

I concur, having moved from Melbourne to Sydney myself.

Sydney's food/shopping scene just doesn't match up to Melbourne's, but everything else is better... in the premium areas. Below that "latte line", the concrete jungle, industrial atmosphere, roads, shops actually feel worse than similar areas in Melbourne (west/north). Yet prices are some 30 percent dearer due to the ripple effect, scarcity of land, higher wages.

Another vote for no, Melbourne's property prices will not overtake Sydney's - premium markets definitely not, less premium markets still likely not. Overtake in terms of population, diversity, infrastructure, sure, possibly.

 

As a pom, I draw parallel with London when thinking about Sydney in contrast to Melbourne, Brisbane...arguably, some of the regional UK towns/cities offer a better lifestyle for your "average" wage earner. However, even less salubrious areas of London are significantly pricier than elsewhere - even though these areas are pretty ordinary. London offers great lifestyle for the top 5-10%.