Is Melboure about to burst?

Been to the auctions, prices are just super ridiculous, once interest rates are raised, is this the curtains for Melbourne?

If so, where would you reckon would produce the most price drops?

 

No idea? Though there is already an oversupply of apartments.

if I was a betting person I would say outer burbs where there is lots of land From my experience this gets hit the hardest because the developers need to offload and buyers start to fall off and then developers discount land.

But the reality is when markets correct all areas can fall back, even blue chip areas. This happened when Sydney corrected, northern beach areas fell back, same as Perth upper market/blue chip still not recovered since 2007 crash.

So the answer is .......I don't know cos I cant predict the future, but just look at previous history and perhaps that will give you some idea on what may happen.

The good news with Melb is it is still numero uno for immigration, big plus, so perhaps when the correction happens it will be a pimple on a mountain.

 

Well Terry Ryder has just released the 5 hottest spots in Melbourne and they are all in the outer suburbs. And that means they will all go bust cause that dude is always wrong. Just say'n.

 

and they pay for this

 

Yeah and he wants 55 bucks for the report.

 

By this logic Sydney should burst first right because its more ridiculous and has been ridiculous for longer?

 

It will only burst after terry mentions it as a hotspot

 

Lol. What suburbs did Tezza mention as hot spots in Melbourne?

Is he the Herald of the coming Doom? Never paid attention to hot spotters or other spruikers

 

I didn't purchase it, only read that his top 5 spots in Melbourne are outer burbs. He has magical powers, once the area is mentioned as a next hot spot, it tanks shortly after.

 

Yep..old kiss of death Ryder

 

Oh now I’m really curious and willing to drop $55 just to see what made it on the list. Are you guys sales reps for Terry? You got me on the hook lol

 

I think we need to wait and see what impact the Government's stamp duty cut for FHB will have on the market. We also don't know what the Federal Government has in store for FHB in the May budget.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the air at the moment and unless you have a crystal ball I'm afraid we all have to play the 'wait and see' game.

 

I can't help but noticing:

- There are people buying in Heidelberg West for $850K for ex commission housing. These are the concrete 2 x 1s I endured as a poor uni student in Ashwood that is Siberia in winter and Darwin in Summer.

- Noble Park is now well into the mid to even high 700ks, consider this, it's not exactly the safest suburb in Melbourne and 25kms or so out on one of the worst train lines in Melbourne. I remember suburbs like this were hard to move even at $500K let alone $700K, it doesn't take much to move them these days.

- Read somewhere in the paper today, there are a lot of apartments now selling for cheap because there is an oversupply.

I've heard all this sabre rattling since 2010 really, but I think the tsunami is about to hit.

 

I keep hearing this. What are the vacancy rates like? If 100k are moving to Melbourne each year, thats a lot of places that fillup pretty quickly.

 

Go the West! There would be a few rags to riches stories in good ol' Heidelberg West. It was dirt cheap when I was looking there in 2007.

 

Maybe. It all depends on negative sentiment. Personally, I think that's rising fast, but who knows.

Consider though that even if the bubble is bursting, it's almost impossible to know right away. In Ireland it 'didn't so much pop as exhale'. Bubbles burst excruciatingly slowly. There was a long peak period of well over a year where you honestly didn't know if prices were going up or down. Cities fell at different rates. Some fell then rose then fell again. After this, the crash itself took half a decade. The bubble could have burst and we wouldn't know it.

The actual peak is one of those things you can only see with the benefit of hindsight.

 

When a 3x2 townhouse on no land and backing onto the railway in Essendon sells for a million dollars it makes me think the market must surely be near the peak. Let's revisit this in 12 months time and see how wrong I am about that (again)

14 Grice Crescent, Essendon, Vic 3040 - Property Details

 

The limitless pot of money from China will not stop or be stopped, continuing to support/push up Melb and Syd prices. Its the middle class over there that will be the new buyers

Not all bad as much of it is directed to new builds and new builds they've developed

 

The canary in the coal mine I'm seeing is a lot of sudden and enthusiastic regulatory ass covering. Suddenly it seems everyone agrees it's a big, big problem and banks, economists, ministers, APRA, ASIC, the RBA and co are all scrambling around saying they knew it was a bubble all along. There's a lot of finger pointing and buck passing going on, we've even heard "I've been saying it's a bubble all along" from APRA's chairman. They all know it's going to be someone's fault. I also just read Scott Morrison is suddenly concerned about foreign buyers leaving apartments empty, as if he's just become aware of it. He's looking for scapegoats.

It all seems very familiar, this scenario of people suddenly falling over themselves to make sure the country knows it's someone else's fault.

 

No idea, I guess its all about stock vs demand, it will also reflect on prices? if larger apartments are not moving in terms of price point in a booming market this is one indicator that there is oversupply.