Is he finally right?

Yep. People thinking there's an immediate recovery after the lockdown is lifted are deluded. Firstly from a health perspective any lifting of sanctions has to be slow to prevent a resurgence. But even businesses who hang on through this are going to have customers who suddenly know widespread job losses can happen. The psychological impact of that on consumption is going to be massive.

 

yes will need the Government to spend just as much in the recovery phase as they are going to have to in the virus phase

 

Honestly a lot of the stimulus so far has been useless. It can't be spent in the economy because the economy is closed.

They would've been better shutting down harder earlier, let people and businesses access HECS style loans to survive a 6 week lockdown and then stimulate the crap out of the economy once we've got it under control and look like South Korea. I fear they've wasted a lot of bullets.

 

we aren't going to have a 6 week lockdown

 

No because we messed around gradually bringing in measures rather than going early and our current lockdown is half arsed. If we'd shut down at the start of March to give us time to develop testing and tracing on the scale of South Korea we'd be out of lockdown by now albeit with some significant limitations still.

 

Where did that’s steve keen guy go? Is he still employed anywhere by the universities?

 

Also Lindsay David and Philip Soos, once media darlings who predicted a catastrophic property collapse in 2105. Who knows, maybe their prediction will finally come true.

Housing market ‘bloodbath’ a near certainty

I haven't heard from Martin North for a while.

 

Mr Keen is still around and i guess waiting till the catastrophe goes into the ''snapping point'' investors lose a lot of money or experience a falling apart of a relationship ,but after he took a long hard look in the mirror after his last call he would be waiting just like everyone else..

This is what Brisbane looked like a few weeks ago — and here's what it looks like now

 

Crash or no crash

My major concern is we cant stay in lock down forever, the longer it goes the higher chance that the economy will go into a deep depression

I am no expert, but we cant continue printing money and all business shut down, how do we survive?

I read somewhere that if US does not get out of lockdown by May it will likely go into depression ?

comes down to saving lives or saving the economy

anyone

 

House prices in Sydney and Melbourne came close to doubling between 2012 and 2017 against a background of low wage growth. They were already high by historical standards and in comparison to Australia's peers when the boom kicked off.

There's been a significant rise, and changes in APRA's regulations were sufficient to knock 10% to 15% off in recent months. The current pandemic is potentially more serious.

Meanwhile Lewis Goodall, a correspondent for the BBC, tweeted that economists at one of the London banks are predicting that UK GDP could contract by 18%.

Lewis Goodall on Twitter

If Australia suffers a similar contraction, I can't see prices staying at current levels.

I don't know if we'll get a crash on the order that Dent is predicting, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

Yep. And that's where true stimulus might be needed. What we've just seen and labelled by some as stimulus, is actually rescue. No one is going to spend this money because they can't go out and consume anyway. Many will have to sustain their family and pay rent/loan obligations as best as they can. Not saying the government didn't need to do this, but the pent up demand isn't going to suddenly materialisse in two or three or four months as the curfews are softened.

Also there are some industries such as cafes and restaurants that will strruggle to recover. When it's allowed and safe to eat out, people can only consume one meal at a time. They aren't going to order 40 main courses to make up for those lost. Same for clubs/pubs and the like.

 

Why can't we continue to print money? It's not like we have to pay it back to anyone. Australia and most countries have unlimited credit cards. No doubt we are in for a rough ride and standard of living will go down for many people, but as long as the Government continues to throw billions at the economy, we should get through this ok'ish.

 

This has always been one of my favourite properties in Melbourne.

I watched the renovation / restoration done in the mid 80s - but whoever bought it in 1988 post renovation didn't do so well.

They had it on the market last year wanting about $8.5m last year but was too much. Won't get anything like that in the next few years I think

https://www.realestate.com.au/prope...ep-pdp|sold-pdp:property-history-cta#timeline

I know of a few people who have bought before they sold and are now in a tricky situation, as they can't afford to keep both places for too long

 

Wow what a home! Cmon powerball ffs!

 

Actually needs a good 1-1.5m spent on it at the moment

But yeah will scrub up well

 

Absolutely. If it was pure market forces this debt bubble would have popped and it would be an absolute bloodbath.
The only problem I have with predicting doom and gloom is what else the government might do to prop things up. Two scenarios I play in my head, positive side thinking this will help us stave off disaster government will continue to step in to hold up asset prices and property will only slide 15-20% we will slowly get back to normal and everything returns to “normal”, the negative scenario is that this is just more debt to fix the inflated asset bubble and we are just in for more pain down the track, the house of cards crashes and we do end up with 40-50% falls......

Still a lot of uncertainty. No one really knows how this will end I don’t think anyone can really make a call either way with confidence.

 

Yep there's a huge amount of uncertainty

And I'm not overly keen in having any more than 250k in any one bank at the moment either

Depending on the stimulus measures that could be rolled out over the next 2 years, property might only have a small temporary dip too

But if the SHTF then I'd be pretty keen on a heavily discounted holiday house

 

Latest on Steve Keen. Running for 'The New Liberals' in the senate.

Housing affordability plunge: radical policy the only answer - Michael West Media

 

Interesting. For years his predictions have been out of touch with reality. Now he's running for parlament so he can change reality to match his predictions.

 

So was Dent et al right? My opinions at the time are clear in this thread.

Now proven to be fact. Hope no one fire sold right before the mother of all booms!

Never, ever, ever pay any attention to anything Dent has to say. And to OTT doom and gloomers in general. It rarely pays off.