Is getting loans going to be harder

I agree. Also, now that we know our borrowing capacity is limited we can be a lot more careful about how we use it. It's like a resource has become more precious so we are careful about how we use that resource.

 

True. I'm doing both.

 

Excuse my ignorance but what do you mean by 3 way cashflow? Is that the husband wife and mistress?

 

And todays winner is .......

 

A 3 way forecast is a forecast of your balance sheet, cash flow statement and profit and loss that is integrated.

So you can forecast say, the sale price of your OTP apartments to increase but with a delayed settlement. This will give you a great balance sheet and profit and loss but the cashflow will be impacted.

And the forecast has to be done in such a way that you can change one item and the rest flows through.

For large commercial borrowings we do these a lot. It is also a good idea to do anyway. Some government agencies insist upon it for licensing purposes.

If you google "3 way forecast" you will find groups like Castaway, Spotlight and Futrli. We use Futrli and make it complementary to every client.

 

I just got porn when I googled three way.

 

Did the same at work. Got a call from HR

 

And then I wondered if Ross has a lisp and was talking roads...

 

I've got 10 IPs, servicing was very tight a year ago and between my wife and myself we've gotten paycuts of around $40k per year. I guess I'll be quiet for a while...

Unless one property comes onto the market that's next to mine, in that case I'll do a JV with my ex-mentor and we'll develop together. So fingers crossed, it'd be very exciting!

 

It's 2017, I got porn when I googled "finance".

 

Yep...onto that one also....agree it is harder now.

The real surprise is I/O loans...the process now for some banks is a full reassessment...this in itself will take the wind out of growth from a CF perspective.

 

Never thought I'd live to see the day

 

I said harder not impossible.

I am seeing people around me hit the wall...looking over my shoulder to see if am next...but lucky so far....

The good thing is good buys are hard to come by......

The next cliff is I/O only loans...this is the area where I see people who are not prepared fall over. What will be interesting to see if the number of people who rushed into broking exit the industry as the easy days of finance dry up.

I was told so long as I keep buying my bread and butter stuff...I have a another $1.5m plus to spend....I am well and truly a couple of multiples of my income in terms of my rent..no rejection yet...but I can see a light at the end of the tunnel....just don't know it is a freight train.

From adversity comes opportunity...

 

Google remembers your prior search results and gives you both tailored responses based on your personal preferences.

You too @Paul@PFI and @Zoolander

 

Not if you're incognito

 

Hah ha!

The young blokes actually showed me incognito the other day.

Here I was thinking that my firm website was coming up # 1 on SEO.

 

There's a whole bucket more to get that coverted #1 on SEO. Ask your guys about Accelerated Mobile Pages (AMP). Great for showcasing content in a data-lite environment.

Back to lending though... anyone have success refinancing at the moment given CBAs handbrake announcement on investor activity. Would be nice to switch to a lower rate and/or draw equity if new loans and purchases are drying up.

 

I think we will have a much better idea about whether l/O lending and costs of funds issues will get a touch tougher or a whole lot tougher over the next 9 months or so.

Locally - we will start to see apartment settlements rolling through by mid year, and get a sense of whether the apartment tsunami will be good, bad or ugly. BASEL IV stuff will be much closer to implementation as well... so we will know by then whether further regulatory tightening is coming.

Globally - The US fed will have acted once or possibly twice and Trump will have been in the role quite a bit longer, so US bond yields - and therefore cost of funds for fixed rates , will be more of a known quantity . They could be up, down or sideways....

French election, Brexit etc... all have the potential to cause speed humps. Nothing that could cause a credit crisis though.... other than if Trump starts a global trade war.

But the biggie will be the apartment settlements. If that gets quite bad, sentiment from consumers will change, and bank appetite will also likely change... and if it gets bad enough and banks introduce all kinds of LVR restrictions it could well spread to houses as well... But I dont think we will start to see those trends until 2nd half of the year at the earliest, and into 2018

My personal view is that while rates stay this low or hereabouts, and unemployment doesnt blow out - a large correction seems unlikely. But a lot of apartment settlements falling over could shake the Sydney market in particular, down 10-15% for sure. An aggressive intervention in I/O lending could also cause a modest correction....

Right now - in Sydney at least - cafes are full, shops are full - plenty of nice new cars on the road and property is still selling at crazy prices. How close to the edge some of these people are, is hard to know... will 50bpts take them to the edge. or would it need to be 150 bpts? if and when the tide goes out I guess we will see.

 

Best show in town right now for servicing and cash out is Westpac. AMP and Macquarie are traditionally excellent cash out lenders, but both are turning the taps off for the next few months. If you dont need a lot of cash out, FirstMac is also quite good. assessment rate is 7% and OFI debt is 7% and neg gearing/addbacks are 7%

 

Todays news...

ANZ tightening HEM's a little more.... as of today

Westpac being hauled into court by ASIC for "responsible lending" breaches...