Is Brisbane Over-valued now in early 2024?

Cant find a relevant Post so here I am....

In the past 18-months or so, been hearing stories that someone bought 2-5 years ago and sold at nearly double the price. More Houses but also quite a lot of Townhouses and Apartments.
So houses within say 20km from the City, North and South, are well over $900k.
20-years old Townhouses in Inner City is asking for $900k.
Met random people in dinners, functions, shops.
Friends, relatives, or their friends.

Surely this cannot go on forever? Been reading lots of articles, from Economists mainly, and everyone has an opinion. What's the saying, anything that goes up must come down?

What do 'ya think?

 

I think its viable right now. But its trending towards gaining hard again it appears from what I am reading and seeing in terms of data.
If it has another couple of solid years (which seems likely), its going to be too high and will then be flat for quite a long time is my gut feeling. Brisbane should not be more expensive than Melbourne long term. But it has done this before.

 

why not?

 

Yes it is....will have one on the market within the next 3-4 months post reno....want to take money off the table.

 

Nobody can predict if current price in Brisbane is over valued?
What you said about the prices are pretty well on the mark for houses and townhouses.

What will drive the price down?
Supply haven't increase in any shape or form for 2023. Lagging indication of supply won't keep up for the next 3 years.
I work in the tier 1 building sectors and lots of them are diversifying into regional area in the next 12 to 24 months as there just isn't profitable to build in the metro area.

The government promise to build 1.2m homes in 5 years is a pipe dream. Them and who's army of builders?

If you look at just east coast in isolation - Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne.
The new hotness is Brisbane and there are a lot of money flowing in.

You can only make your own mind up and do your own race.
Don't listen to all the white noise and scary headlines out there.
Example news released today.

Housing prices far above fair value
How far Australian house prices have soared above fair value

 

Thanks for sharing.
No, nobody can predict.
In fact just after Covid, a REA friend said to hang on coz market might crash. Then the exact opposite happened! And he is a good REA.

What I dont understand is where is the money coming from? The few opens that we went too, they just look like ordinary people. There are people from outside of Brisbane but I wont say they are the majority.
With that kind of prices, surely mortgage will be high. Since when Brisbane has so many high-income earner? The last I look, average salary in Brisbane is lower than Sydney and Melbourne.

 

I haven't been to auction of late - not in 2024.
I was at an auction in Nov 23 for an very ordinary 3 bedroom - post war house at Stafford.
I would of only paid $950k max for it.
I was shocked it got sold for $1.09m to a Sydney investor.

So plenty of money coming from somewhere... I saw plenty of full grey hair older people at the auction. I doubt first home owner could compete at $1m+ house close to the city.

 

Oh wow!
To add to what you said, not many "younger" people would be interested in Reno. Sounds like this house once done-up would be lovely.
Almost all the young people I know today wants to buy a house where they can "just move-in with their suitcase"!

 

what do you think people with money should look like?

there are plenty of high income earners in Brisbane, especially now that the incomes for the professionals have levelled out between the cities due to ability to work from anywhere in Australia.

also in 2021 median income in Greater Brisbane was lagging Greater Sydney by $1, and Greater Melbourne is lagging waaaay behind

New Census insights on income in Australia using administrative data

 

I’ve had agents call me this week saying record sales amounts are currently being achieved. They are expecting prices to drop later in the year.

 

Wonder what they would say if you were a buyer.

 

Don't they hang a plank tag over their neck? On the plank it says I am "multi-billionaire"

 

google long term relative prices of capitals. They track along without significant long term relative change.
I am not going to go into sociodemographic and climatic reasons on here as it just gets off topic and . But there is those too.
BNE is third tier. Always will be. Apart from cycles where it gets above Melbourne temporarily.

(I love BNE, want to live there 6mths of the year. But i am not your average prospective buyer/immigrant/investor etc who will not put BNE ahead of Melbourne most of the time).

Also I stand to benefit from BNE booming so i am not talking out of bias.

 

Yields are good in BNE atm

 

i'd argue that there is very little point to look at long term trends, when the society has/is going through major shifts, like it has in the past decade.

it's basically like looking at Detroit at it it's peak, and claiming that it's still the same in 2024.

the fundamentals that were underpinning those trends have changed, which means that the trends themselves will as well.

 

There is no fundamental shift. I am quite certain about that.
Brisbane is still too hot for most people.
It has never been an immigration favoured place.
It is not more of a financial centre. Its still mining (which is helping atm) and agriculture driven moreso than Melb.
This is just the usual Brisbane getting popular and booming for a while. Plenty on here have seen this before.

The Olympics are an 'event'. Not a fundamental gamechanger.

I see BNE as a hold right now, but not a strategic buy. Maybe short term gains play. Melbourne has the value right now.

 

well that's where we'll have to agree to disagree. i see that fundamentals have changed quite a lot.

in terms of being too hot, have a look at where the current migration is coming from

 

After chatting to them for 7 years and this is the first time they’ve indicated price increases aren’t sustainable and it looks like peak my own research is suggesting they are correct but we could both be wrong!