Is 2016 the year you’ll make a killing in the property market?

Ok mate. I guess at the end of the day, the SANF for each person is really important.

 

No I don't label anyone that disagrees with me a troll. I said for fear of being labelled a troll never said you were one. Read it again.

Brighton and Tootak are just an example of blue chip suburbs. Like shares if they were to fall by 30% they'd be considered fallen angels and likely be first to return to peak prices. It's not about whether or not you want to live in them it was about investment.

 

I don't like them for investment purposes first of all. Never invested in costly low yield properties. Blue chip shares you say. Maybe, but some blue chip shares never make it back when they fall. Enron shares is a good example. I wonder how many years it'll get BHP or RIO to get back to their top.
I have no fear of being labeled a troll, I just have my own opinion.

 

Actually Australia did have a crash. Only it was in currency. Not nominal values.

 

I like reading your posts because you are not trying to sell anything and being honest and coming from personal experience, that is not a troll.

 

Good on you. Nice to see public risk averse people on here compared to the common and highly vocal highly levered high risk proponents.
Please check in on the occasion when the forum comes to mind after the retirement.
I rarely ever agree with you , I reflect on the angle you are coming from.Contrarians should be applauded, the challenge they provide makes one contemplate his/her own thought process credentials

Thanks for being a voice of restraint .

 

If you are in USD - you are correct. Perth prices are lower for about 40-45% in USD from the top in 2007 in USD.

 

Thank you. I'm trying to be honest and I have experienced what a 50% price fall can do to your portfolio. What have saved me - no debt policy.

 

...and that is a bad experience, if there is anything I have learnt its to protect what you have made and markets do turn, managing debt is important.

 

Perhaps equally important did you use that surplus cash to buy up big once prices had fallen. That really is the mark of a successful investor.

 

I invest Australia wide so I actually continued to buy in markets that were booming around Australia buying and selling, reducing debt increasing income streams and in USA

 

Mmm well not necessarily clever to jump in and be holding property for 10 yrs or so until the next boom. Yes on paper it may look like a gain eventually if you forget to mention the costs. Obviously it depends on the timing, property etc.

 

That is what I call shorting the property market. I have done it in the late 90's overseas. It was great, property prices fell 60% plus in about 6-8 months. It took about 5 years to BE for those who had bought before the meltdown, but the ones that had the money at the bottom were in property heaven.

 

I did it on the gold coast in 2007. Didn't time it quite perfectly as prices kept doing up for a while and then didn't tank as much as I expected until 2010 and then I started buying in big time

 

can you teach me I suspect it takes a certain personality type?..

 

The single most important factor I look at is yield cf interest rates. When it becomes cheaper to rent than to own I become bearish. And vice versa. And the more extreme the ratio the stronger sell (or buy) signal.

 

What can I teach someone who had invested in the right place (Atlanta) at the exactly the right time. You should teach me.
About the personality thing... I'm just bearish, most of my investing live.

 

So what you think about Perth, where property rents fell a lot more (IMHO) then the property prices? Are you bearish on Perth?

 

I need to get head around this, totally different mindset for me

 

Blue chip high end in Perth has still not recovered since 2007, 1.5m+

Generally speaking we had a rising market, low stock from 2013-2014 (mid).

Today nothing is stacking up, mining towns 40% fall in values and rents

Overall there is too much stock on the market, oversupply, I believe we are some way off before we see a recovery. Rents also fell at least 10-15%

Perth has had I think 4 consecutive deficits, State government not managing debt and business' are cutting back, job losses.

So I guess you could say I am bearish.