NSW IP in St Mary's

Thats strange as all the agents I know and spoken to said its 99% owner occupiers they have sold too, and very little investors land banking the townhouse sites. So investors are not back in force like in 2011-2015

 

So your saying all investors are simply ignoring what is happening in the market? They are simply ignoring all the capital growth, all the infra investments and ignoring the historical low vacancy rates? I dont see how ANY investor can simply ignore whats going on in the market. Not any seasoned investor anyway. Go ask your seasoned investor mates and if they are ignoring the 3 items I listed above what is their reasoning in doing so? Why would you not catch the gravy train if you can? I dont think ANY market has even reached the 9 O Clock mark of the upswing portion of the cycle yet we are only in March. Its most likely between 7-8 mark so plenty of growth remaining which could mean multiple years left of growth.

Ask them and let us know what they say and their reasoning for ignoring the current data. Its a bull market.

I'm an investor and I am definitely NOT ignoring what I am seeing. I'm no Nobbie investor either.

 

And then again theres people like me who are looking to buy to replace another property in the area. I know its not the best investment but prefer to hold one in the area whether it goes up or down.

Though im not an experienced investor

On a more serious note: When is the best time to buy. My theory is 7-8 o'clock on a clock (around when the market is starting to boom). Though St Marys appears to be around 10-11 (if not already 12). Though I could be completely wrong

 

WHAT???? - No chance in hell. So your saying its about to go into a downturn? What are you smoking? Give me some of that or moreso start a business and start selling that.

 

You said investors are back in force and that’s completely false. I can tell your not a nobbie investor as based on what you said in other posts on how many years ago you bought stuff, that means you started buying in 2004 AFTER the Sydney boomed from 1998-2003/2004 depending on suburb. None of the seasoned ppl I know or on here where buying in Sydney and in particular western suburbs of Sydney then but in other states like Brisbane.

 

You dont have to believe me and I dont believe you either. So lets just leave it at that. We'll see the stats in May/June. Just wait.

So you know each and every investor on here hey? So you can ask them all why they are not jumping back in and reply to my questions above. Why are they ignoring all the signs? What else do they want or are they waiting for? Did they buy during the Covid peak and if so what was the reasoning then? The reasoning now vs the reasoning back then would be almost completely opposite so they would have done one or another.

 

I have clients looking to buy out there and are now asking me if they should just give up looking for now to see if the market cools in the coming months. Price points have been hit for FHBs that reduce the incentive to buy right now. And with stock levels increasing rapidly and unrealistic vendors it may be a sudden slowdown.

As for investors, in the past 4-5 months I've written one genuine iP loan. That's it. Why would u buy in a hot market and face the prospect of negative equity in the coming months or at least no growth in the near future?

 

FHBs are still the main driving factor at the moment. This means suburbs $1M plus as well. St Marys is still lower than that. Significantly. So whats your explaination here?

Also, there are less than 10 properties for sale in St Marys currently with most going to Auction. That is very very low stock and greater Western Sydney was NEVER an Auction market. Now most of them are auction.

Negative equity? Have you been paying attention to the prices being achieved at all? What signs are you seeing right now that there will be a sudden halt and zero growth? Are you suggesting this for the entire Sydney or just St Marys? and what is the reason for it? Sorry I just dont see it and honestly I dont think anyone sees it.

The growth started increasing ONLY in Dec/Jan. Its March 25th. Are you saying we had a 2 month boom and now we will go into negative territory imminently? ANZ just released an updated pricing forecast today and upped their prediction from 10% to 17% just in 2021 alone. You must be looking at some awesome classified information if what your suggesting is true.

 

I didn't claim I did but I do know some of the seasoned investors here as I've either meet them at meet up's or reached out to them to chat and get insights. You claim there's heavy hitter investors that don't contribute here so Hi to them and thanks for stalking. Yes I have asked and they all including me see everything you said and you carrying on like its a massive boom, kinda come across as you think its going to double. I asked you before what you think on what percentage of growth and by when and you couldn't answer.

I noticed you ONLY copied a snippet of my response to ask a question which I have above. Why did you start buying in 2004 after the boom and you bought a few in 2770 yet you didn't buy any in the better suburbs of 2770.

Anyway this boom is driven by owner occupied and will do a decent gain and the seasoned ppl I know have bought in other states, as they can make a larger gain with better yeild as they need to manage cashflow, landtax as portfolio is large and mature.

Let's catch up any weekend you like to go to these open houses and have a robust conversation over a beer

 

Stock levels in St Mary's and 2770 houses are still very low and heaps of demand. I dont see it slowing down till next year as they are all trying to lock in the stamp duty concession for purchase under 650k by July. Spoke to my broker today and still heaps of FHB out there and one client got 160k gift from parents to assist them to buy.

 

I'm talking about this area. FHBs are starting to hit their limits. I can't say I know of anyone who has dreamed their whole life about living in Colyton or St Marys. I grew up in the aspirational suburb over the bridge and there is no comparison really. People are buying where they can afford and with the bell curve increases of stamp duty once u hit around the 720k mark for FHBs it's going to stop making sense to people to buy at these prices.

 

I agree about things still going crazy in the sub 700k space for a while as there will be more FHLDS spots in july and lending enquiries still hot but these suburbs south of the GWH are pushing above this now for the large majority of freestanding houses. So FHB will either check out the Druie or look further afield.

 

If they cant afford St Marys as a FHB they cant afford any other suburb. There is nowhere else to look in Sydney. Also not much in St Marys sub $700k now either.

The entire Sydney is growing. Where are they going to buy in Airds? I think that is the cheapest Suburb in the entire Sydney left.

So where would they buy? You are saying once it hits $700k it makes no sense for FHBs to buy in St Marys. What alternatives are there? Wentworthville is almost a $1M suburb now. Tell me the alternatives in Sydney then. The other suburbs are increasing FASTER than many of these in the Western suburbs so tell me how it makes more sense for a FHB to buy in alternate suburbs. I'm not understanding what your getting at.

 

I wonder how you would react with a convo with Sash.

Personally think that opinion as bad the opinion's he had.

Unlike in Sash's case I hope your right but I doubt it

 

Who cares what he thinks. I was reading past threads he's always been the biggest downramper of Western Sydney. Doesn't matter if its Parramatta, Blacktown, St Marys or Penrith. He missed the boat on millions and millions of dollars in Western Sydney so he went to buy elsewhere. I think he had that mentality of "I've missed the boat so I will down ramp the entire area" type attitude which I know plenty of members have.

Some of his posts are utterly rubbish too. He was arguing with ppl that the new airport was only cargo planes. Seriously? Who on earth would spend that much money only to have cargo planes. After that statement I think many just ignored him.

 

First time investor, current OO here - do you think it is not a good idea to buy in western Sydney at the moment for investment purposes as the prices are well above their intrinsic value? Should I be looking at other markets like Brisbane? Max budget is $900k. I have so far been looking at Kingswood and Cambridge Park which are both close to Western Sydney uni and Nepean hospital, St Mary's because of the impending metro, Blacktown as I reckon this will be the next $1m suburb coming up, Mt Duitt because of current rezoning and growth, and also at more affordable areas such as Lethbirdge, Willmot, Emerton, Shalvey, etc.

 

That Emerton one seems like a good buy. What do you think this went for?
21 & 21a Captain Cook Drive, Willmot NSW 2770 | Domain

House with GF in Willmot renting for $630. The offer for this are already over $700k!! I wasn't expecting it fetch offers of such high value. The median sale price is only $480k (not factoring in GF) and had about 18% growth last year as per CoreLogic,

 

Peter knows the market very very well. He will get maximum for the sellers. I bought 3 houses from him in the past. Hes a good guy as well. Plus he knows several of the boys from high school I grew up with.

 

Yes, he seems to get the best price for his vendors. There is this property currently for sale at 8 Cosgrove Crescent, Kingswood wich has 556m2 and is R3 zoned. It rents for $515 and has 4 beds. Normally, you would think that even in this heated market, it would not go for anything above $950k, but guess what - with the DA approval for a 13 room boarding house, the vendor is asking for a min. $1.3m! It was last sold for $696k in Jan 2017, and it has doubled if it sells for more than $1.3m; all because of the DA approval. The DA does costs money too, so that needs to be taken into account as well.

Yeah, his name is also against a number of listings for R3 properties in St Mary;s, Oxley Park, and Kingswood areas. One of the more popular and well established agents in this area.

Back to the property at Willmot; do you think that price paid was too much? $700k for a house + GF in Willmot with 607m2 land and a corner block.

 

why has this one not sold yet? Because it's strata titled?