Investment Advice (Melb vs Bris)

High skills jobs are opened up to anyone and any place.

Brisbane is not the choice of any major company.

there are 4 million kids in school as of 2021. Parents won't leave the good schools and go to Darwin, because bricks are cheaper. Neither college/university going kids or their families.

from 2010 - 2020 Brisbane went back wards if inflation is taken into account. It is catching up to inflation.

There is internal migration of 45 - 60 years old. with no commitments.

What is the wage growth in Brisbane in the last 2 years? Wouldnt be much.

 

Most ASX 200 companies headquarters are based in Sydney and Melbourne. and not in Brisbane.

One day we might see a couple opening up in Brisbane. covid didn't help any company moving into Brisbane or Darwin.

 

My two cents with this. If you are referring to working at ASX company head quarters then sure. But I can tell you from experience working in one of the big ASX listed companies myself, they offer flexible working from ANY of their head offices (Syd, Melb, Bris). A top executive can do their work from any of those capital cities and interstate travel when needed. This type of flexible working was already established before covid hit, and in part this was to provide flexibility and become employer of choice, but also to reduce their own capital expenditure (no point securing a desk for everyone in Barangaroo right!?).

In addition, outside of ASX listed companies there are other professions that employ high net worth individuals, such a medicine.

Don’t underestimate the talent pool that is already residing or will reside in Brisbane in the near future.

 

No choice Melbourne beats Brisbane any day of the week

Brisbane is still a country town

Melbourne will supersede Sydney in population and cap growth within decade or so.

so: Land (house not unit) in Melbourne.

Bonus note from a history teacher: Melbourne used to have most ASX companies in the 60s …now it’s Sydney…Sydney makes the obvious regional base — its global outlook and spectacular coast makes it more desirable than Melbourne or Brisbane. Over 80% of Australia’s top schools are in Sydney.

but Melbourne is going to see the tide change in her favour within our lifetime.

 

There are only 9 million households in Australia.

• there were 4,006,974 students enrolled in 9,542 schools.

Schools, 2020.

Would you think most of them will pack up and go to Brisbane and continue Zoom studies and Zoom sports?

 

You are mostly correct...but you will find the incomes in places like Belmont.. Mount Duneed...Grovedale is very high now...as upper middle class families have moved in there.

Incomes in Hoppers/Werribee whilst improving are not as high but they are moving in the right direction.

 

480,000 ex-pats are returning home with loads of cash and high paying jobs.

Brain gain: Australian expats are back home in Melbourne, and they’ve brought their skills with them

90% Clearance rate in Melbourne. is this low confidence.

https://www.realestate.com.au/auction-results/vic

 

You aren't talking sense...it is based on cycles...you will find over the next 2 years....Brisbane will go very close to Melbourne prices...within 80% I reckon.

But you are correct over the longer term ....Melbourne will do very well!

 

at one point hoppers crossing had the same median price as Richmond or hawthorn.

If it's cycles or squares or Triangles why are hoppers crossing hitting its cycles for the last 45 years?

at one point Darwin and Perth were expensive than Melbourne.

same as Hoppers and Richmond difference. it won't happen again.

 

Given Bris and Per are so hot and every 2nd post is about missing out, or getting sold on high price... I am really questioning the Value for Money as one prop and 10 ppl going for it....result in orice baloon..good for sellers!

If one is paying 8-900K now , will that prop be 1.5/6m in 10 years?...

 

@Hari Yellina
I dont necessarily disagree with your bearish views on brisbane, but understand that these reasons some of which you have mentioned are the exact reasons why brisbane is cheaper than Sydney or Melbourne.

 

In the last 10 years, the worlds top employers and companies are technology-based.

Google
Facebook
uber
iPhone
iPad
whats app
tik tok
bit coin
dodge coin
messenger
AWS
Azure
Netflix
Prime Video
Disney


etc...

that is what happened with the world and the prices of the cities embracing technology.

 

look at the fresh produce exports 52% from Victoria.

 

Agreed. And this is what o believe the game changer with covid. Precovid, those not at the executive level likely have to be physically located where the office was (and for most asx HQ, that was Sydney/mel). Covid has changed that, maybe not very significantly, but it certainly has changed that. Now, asx companies will take talent where can find it irrespective of where the employee is located.
It goes without saying, you will have to be the best of the best to do this though (at whichever level you are at, but will need to be the top gun), and this is the cohort who will win post covid- the best of the best will have opportunities that were previously not readily available solely based on their physical location.
This is already happening even in brisbanr, Sydney, Melbourne..not just Silicon Valley, nyc etc..it will gain more traction post covid. Therefore, the top class employees (whichever level they are at) in brisbane will have access to Sydney and Mel company jobs , and vice versa works as well.
Ita going to be more strongly based on skills and talent in the future rather than physical location.

 

Once the technology companies go public. they will take over sharemarket.

there will be no circles and squares.

Quality investment-grade stocks vs rest.

Same trend with cities embracing technology jobs

 

I am an ex tech exec....a lot more to tech...things can change quickly...don't expect everything to stay the same.

I would be very glad if ever remote working took over...but I am seeing evidence that remote employees will be paid less...possibly as much as 30% less...evidence is in Google Microsoft...Dell paying less.

I bought in seaside locations in Geelong...Phillip island. Stuff bought for 350-400k are now 800k....another one bought in Dec last year....620k...on completion over 1.2m. Ridiculous...enjoy it whilst the good times roll...there will be a day of reckoning at some point.

I have a few in Perth also...I expect the median to go from 600k today to 900-950k within 3 years.....within cooee of Melbournes median. Dems how things work...gunga din...