Interesting Property Charts Thread

These are some charts from a recent blog post of mine incorporating data from Friday's Residex indices update. Will use this thread to share other random property charts I find interesting or have created. Feel free to comment on any/all or share your own.

 

Interesting, where do they get their official data from? I couldn't seem to find it on their website.

 

They used to post all the data on their website, see: Property Information, Capital Growth Predictions, Rental Information from the Experts: Residex

But took that down a couple of years back and I have been manually collecting from that point off their blog and adding to my spreadsheet.

 

Interesting to see Brisbane and Adelaide both pretty close together in the "House Price Growth AAGR" chart.

 

Debt to income can rise forever driving house prices higher, right?

 

Indeed not!

A Pom perspective: The BoE managed to get the UK debt-to-income ratio down from ~170% to ~140% (2008-2014) with the help of a rapid-fire burst of inflation.

UK house prices are now back at all-time highs, but many (if not most) UK regions 1 hour+ away from London got smoked in the fallout.

Not sure what you can into that, if anything.

Nice charts btw!

 

@petewargent Guest. Love your blogs and twitter posts. Thanks guys.

 

I assume London was flooded with foreign capital like Sydney & Vancouver amongst other cities. I don't know where and when this ends, but the higher our debt to income is, the more at risk we are to catastrophe when we inevitably have a recession and house prices fall more than the usual cyclical corrections.

What sort of price falls were seen in UK regions?

 

Yes not sure how much value there really is in comparing other countries. For one thing, London has almost no restrictions on who can buy, money laundering & CGT tweaks notwithstanding.

Biggest crash was in Ireland. ONS figures show:

-the price index for London reached a record level of 260.8 in November 2015 – this is 49.5% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of January 2008 (174.5)

-index for Northern Ireland in November 2015 (166.0) is 41.0% below the peak of August 2007 (281.5)

Regional England, Scotland & Wales weren't hit quite as hard, but prices were down plenty in some cities and regions - the North East of England region still hasn't recovered to its 2007 peak, for example.

 

Guest, outstanding work. Do you have a Sydney : Perth house price ratio graph or do you know how I could construct one? I recall some time back, for a brief time the median house price in Perth was higher than the median house price in Sydney. What it is now? 50%? It would interesting to see the Perth boom and bust against the most recent Sydney boom.

 

Here's a couple for you... Sydney just playing catch up.

 

Thanks Guest. Sad news for Perth. From the heyday of being ~ to Sydney to falling to around 50%. But I find this so hard to read with the different scales! Ugh!

 

Interesting that they were pretty even, now Sydney x2.

 

To me Sydney looks around fair value at 2x Perth... so makes me wonder what Perth will do if Sydney is putting in a significant top/facing the cyclical correction I expect.

 

I agree. Long term, Sydney has trended around 2x Perth. Perth sort of had a boom that pushed up the prices of some properties in certain areas. One example is development sites around the City of Belmont area, where effectively a housing bubble formed. At the same time other properties stagnated or went backwards. Still, overall I think it is fair to say the market overheated. The peak was around the end of 2014 and prices have been falling steadily since then. I expect this trend to continue for at least 12 to 18 months.

I would argue that overall, Sydney prices are overvalued because of the recent boom. I expect the Sydney market will enter a correction phase.

What will be interesting to monitor is whether Sydney and Perth maintain the 2x ratio. I suspect that the Sydney correction will a little sharper at the start and that Perth will start to flatten out, so that ratio might tip a little in Perth's favour.

 

Updated with price data to June.

Sydney house prices vs RBA cash rate (inverted) - If past (short) cycles are any indication Sydney prices won't top before rates bottom. I expect rates to go lower yet...



That said Adelaide house prices looking much better value than Sydney based on the ratio:

 

Perth rents still on the downslope in the year to June. (Darwin too).

 

Outlining what we already know, I was just curious to what it would look like:



Source: 6416.0 - Residential Property Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Jun 2016 (Tables 4 and 5)

EDIT: Old attachements deleted

 

OMG Perth rents... ouch
Think again folks if you are considering buying in Perth, in particular now that interest rates are rising, could get far more uglier
Most of my hold properties in Perth have taken a 20% hit

 

Do we have any graphs for 2016 yet or too early?