Interesting article on the two tiered economy

Yes that entire area has seriously boomed... people have made small fortunes. Particularly subdividing those gernerous blocks

Thanks MTR - have really enjoyed reading so many threads and the experience on this forum to date.

 

he got a 4 townhouse DA over the line and on sold it, brilliant project for the buyer and still fat in the deal, that is the key to selling a DA, the buyer must also be marking excellent returns

 

Yeah can't get greedy if your strategy is to flip property... seems like he sold for a good/fair price.

 

The hard part for most investors (including myself to be honest) in 2017 is this:

If this article is to be believed (and I do.agree with the thesis) and Aus is sliding into recession with a lack of replacement for the mining boom-then-bust and the (coming) construction boom-then-bust; then Syd/Mel could well be the only markets worth pursuing (at least for a little while).

If so, the problem then becomes: how does an investor turn a buck in either of these markets? Both are in peak so chances of short-medium term gains not so likely. Long term, sure, but then it becomes a long time between drinks and you start asking yourself 'is this the smartest place for my money, right now?'.

Compounding this is also the fact that the 2017 lending environment (credit crunch) makes it very hard to even get the finance levels required to 'play' in either of these markets. Lenders are also reluctant to lend for small-devs, subdivisions, 3-pack/4-pack builds right now too. I mention this because small devs migbt be one of the only tactics one can execute in the short-medium term to get a decent return in this markets. But with lenders reluctant to lend for these projects, devs arent an option for many at the moment.

I still believe there are some regional markets within NSW/VIC worth looking at as an alternative. But then, Newcastle, Central Coast, Wollongong, Geelong, Ballarat etc. Have all moved a fair bit already. Outside of these, the NSW/VIC options are more dubious..

 

Sometimes we all analyse things to much. People can still borrow, although restricted somewhat money will still flow into states that have jobs/immigration, and prices are still in that range of borrowing capacity. Melbourne has many areas that aren't to far from city cbd and still under 700k, some even under 400k(just) and under 30k from cbd. I wouldn't be going regional if you can buy in a major city with future prospects. Remember Sydney was expensive a few years ago when everyone thought its way to much to pay, and it went much higher.

 

Informative bearish article on Brisbane rent and unit market from Nov last year. It's only getting worse right now as stock is coming online very quickly now. I expect this will be compounded as developers rush to complete their projects, IMHO sometime this year its gonna be pretty ugly in SEQ especially the Inner city suburbs.

Brisbane rentals: Why tenants now have the power

 

disagree...even if Australia goes into recession, syd and mel are not the only 2 worth attention. If aust goes into recession, sydney and mel will likely be the first ones to go into it and also the first ones to come out of it.
The likes of adelaide will feel a prolonged pain as they are feeling now- might not be much worse than what they are going through now.
Brisbane will hold relatively well. Prices are not so expensive that that they will come crashing doen with a recession. Still has a reasonably low base price.
Perth will be smashed; overvalued for what it offers and the market in a recession will correct that in a hurry...

 

I think the impact of oversupply of units in the inner city has actually impacted on the QLD property market in general in a negative way. I did start a thread on why Brisbane did not boom, but staying out of that one for the moment.