If you are looking to buy a house, waiting could save you big $$$

We all know Australia Housing has seen an unprecedented boom and many would be home buyers have missed out. However, there are a number of potential headwinds on the horizon that could negatively impact house prices. These include:

• Buyer exhaustion and they are no longer willing pay higher and higher prices (or just can't afford it)
• Interest rate rises and mortgage rises (which could occur irrespective of interest rate rises).
• Share market falls. There are signs the share market is entering a bearish phase which will lower overall investor confidence as their investments fall in value (inlcluding superannuations etc.).
• Speculative assets have crashed (e.g. Meme stocks like Gamestop and AMC as well as many crypto currencies have dropped more than 50% from their all time highs. This suggests the speculative element to this latest boom may be coming to an end.

As a result of all these factors, I anticipate the Australian housing market will become more normalised in 2022 (i.e. reasonable balance between sellers and buyers). This should result in more negotiation between sellers and buyers which means buyers should be able to get a fairer deal (or not have to overpay just to get a property). If interest rates grow much faster than anticipated, then the market may actually turn into a buyers market in late 2022 or 2023 in my opinion. A buyers market would means than sellers would need to lower their price expectations to meet the price buyers are willing to pay. Whatever happens, I don't think the Australian housing market will continue booming in 2022, as all booms eventually come to an end (especially when there is a number of potentially negative impacts coming).

 

Which "Australian Housing Market" are you referring to?

What are your credentials?

 

The entire Australian Housing Market. These are just my personal thoughts. In my experience, all booms come to an end. That doesn't mean house prices willl definitely fall, but I do believe it will eventually become more normalised as the extreme conditions that led to this boom end (e.g. ultra low interest rates, lock downs, FOMO, speculation etc.).

 

Look, you are on a forum mainly comprised of well learned property investment nuts.

As @hammer was alluding to, even the most novice investor on this site understands very quickly that Australia is comprised of a lot of different property markets, most of which act independently of each other unless impacted by global market conditions or events, ala the GFC.

Saying "the entire Australian housing market is going to retract because all booms come to an end" isn't going to exactly endear yourself to the members on here, who are no mugs. This isn't facebook.

Somewhere like Perth is actually about to enter a boom cycle......which invalidates your entire video.

 

Hehe, yep we're all mugs here. All houses down 40%. Steven Keen and his buddies said so.

 

Thanks for the laugh (this is a ****-take, right?)

 

Good luck Biko with your new YouTube channel.
You might want to collaborate with Martin North, and Steve Keen.
It will bring you more viewership.

 

Sydney/Melbourne/Hobart yes they are at peak.

Brisbane/Perth/Adelaide/Darwin have more to go....12-36 months of good growth.

 

Yes, I understand there are micro trends within larger trends, but I'm focusing on the larger macro themes. For example, when the ASX 200 is very strong, you will normally see the majority of the stocks in the ASX 200 do well. As well, when the Australian Housing Market is extremely strong, most housing in Australian is strong. As for Perth, you can speculate that it is actually about to enter a boom cycle but that is just speculation. Just like I can speculate the Uranium sector is going to enter a boom cycle (I believe it will) but that is also just speculation.

 

If Brisbane keeps rising but Sydney/Melbourne don't, then Brisbane will be the same price as Melbourne. I don't see that happening. From my observations, Sydney and Melbourn lead the way and the other states follow around 3 - 6 months aftwards. Of course, we're talking in general terms .

 

To be honest its common sense. The market in Australia never crashes hard because we are all literally so rich here and everyone can hold. The only thing that will happen is buyer sentiment will weaken and you may get a small retraction of say 10% and then a period of 0 growth before the next cycle 2024-2025. People for the past 40 years have said there is going to be some cataclysmic property crash but it never happens.

 

Agreed, that's how I've seen the market in Australia. I don't see a current crash but I do see some of the excess speculation slowly coming out of the market. I also don't think Australians should get sucked into thinking that housing only ever goes up because some countries have learnt that hard way that this isn't always the case (e.g. Japan, Ireland).

 

Japan is different. Their stock market peaked in the early 90s and still hasn't recovered. I honestly hope it crashes but it won't, its too strong in Aus. It will continue to increase as it always has.

 

Fixed it for you.

 

What are your credentials exactly - how many do you own, have many have you owned in the past etc.

Or is this all theory.

 

I've never said I'm an expert. I always try to provide a balanced view when I put forth my views and I like to consider different opinions. As for anyone being an expert, I don't believe believe it. The so called experts all said Housing was going to crash when COVID first hit. The FED said inflation was only transitory. The RBA said they wouldn't raise rates until 2024. So I'm not here saying I know what's going to happen, I'm just here putting forth my view and why I have that view.

 

No experts, just decades of experience. Each.

 

But you haven't answered @jaybean yet.

 

I love real estate as an investment but I never discuss my investments. I also love the stock market as an investment but I never discuss my positions. The reason for that is when you publicly announce your investments, it can set up a bias where you get attached to your investments (that's what I've found with the stock market especially). Also, I don't think that makes any difference to being able to discuss property. Isn't this site called "propertychat"?