If not Brisbane then where?

{Note from mods - posts split from this thread: Why Hasn't Brisbane BOOMED}

For those of us who haven't picked location well in the past, where would you suggest to buy instead of Brissie? Do you think Sydney/Melbourne will outperform Brissie in the next 5 years?

 

Geelong.

 

Why instead of Brissie?

Do I think Syd or Melb will outperform Brissy? I am certain some market in Syd/Melb will outperform some markets in Brissy. Likewise, I'm certain some markets in Brissy will outperform some markets in Syd/Melb. Overall where will outperform? Roughly speaking I would choose Brisbane. Less overall risk. Decent value. Market sentiment seems to be most positive about Brissy atm (which is important), Brissy is relatively good value atm compared to other markets. Don't need to choose 'the best' place, just a good place is good enough imo. If you can add value then even better.

If you have to exclude Brissy then I would be waiting for Sydney to potentially show some great deals over the next 12-18 months. But that suits my goals, risk tolerances etc. Will be different for you.

1. Determine your budget/borrowing ability
2. Determine your goal for this next property
3. Choose a state that shows best opportunity/least risk based on your DD
4. Choose suburbs as close to the CBD (I have concluded that 'as close to CBD' appropriate for the particular state so will differ for syd, melb, brissy, perth, adel etc is a measure that is vital and I will never eliminate as a key criteria and also forms part of long term intrinsic risk mitigation) as budget allows with potentially add value potential. Try to identify ripple suburbs, undervalued areas.

 

Can you explain why you think so please ?

 

Sure, I'll do the simple line first:

• Go to Google Maps
• Change the view to Satellite View (so you can see people's houses, backyards etc.)
• Zoom out so you can see Geelong & Melbourne on the same screen
• Notice how some of the suburbs in the east of Melbourne like Cranbourne, Frankston etc. are the same distance to Melbourne CBD as some of the northern suburbs of Geelong
• I.e. Geelong will eventually become a suburb of Melbourne (the new suburbs of the West are already well on their way to making that a reality)
• I.e. hardly a regional town

More complex arguments:

• Cheapest place to buy a house 50kms from Melbourne CBD
• Cheapest place to buy a house 45 minutes from Melbourne CBD (by train)
• Cheap to buy a house yet the stigma does not match (use Census statistics to see for yourself)
• Because of the stupidity of Melbourne's train system it is actually quicker to get into Melbourne CBD by train from Geelong than many Melbourne suburbs
• You could buy a house in Melbourne's new northern estates, or the western ones, or the south-eastern ones, but all of them don't have a beach-Geelong does & water is a natural value add (just ask Sydney)
• Has an airport, one of the biggest stadiums in the country, a university that actually offers things that lure people from Melbourne, will always serve Melbourne holidaymakers on the Bellarine Peninsula
• Home to Australia's most prestigious school
• Plenty of gentrification potential updating those old warehouses (example already happening in Mackey Street, North Geelong with the cafes and markets)

Personal view:

• Is a nice place to live (although I don't live there for other reasons).

 

Thanks mate that’s pretty detailed and gave me a lot of insight appreciate it. I think Potential development sites would be handy there then.

 

No worries-yes Geelong would be a good development play as the long-term aspects of it are very strong.

 

I also like Geelong in general as a long term investment area but want to correct your information:

1. It is 70 km from Geelong to Melbourne CBD. The closest suburb of Geelong to Melbourne is Lara which is still about 55-60km.

2. A train ride from Geelong to Southern Cross station is 60 minutes. Again, the closest one Lara is 50 mins.

All of the rest, I agree. But Geelong suburbs have seen a big increase in the last 2 years so not sure if now is still the right time to jump in.

 

1. True as well-but the point of my post was about the cheapness of the houses (the cheaper houses are found in the north)-therefore close to Melbourne like Lara

2. Depends on whether you are taking expresses or not. In the morning there are quite a few expresses, but yes 50 minutes you are correct. The point still stands though that it is faster than many Melbourne suburbs. The extra $4.00 on the ticket is still way under what you save in house prices.
https://www.vline.com.au/getattachment/892e2d02-e62c-463f-834f-b3bae129b47c/Geelong-Melbourne-(2)

Still fairly low on their 5 year growth rate per annum though (only 6%), would expect that to climb first before cycle stops.

One other thing I would note: keep an eye on the Geelong to Marvel Stadium in Melb CBD ferry trials. If these work then I think a big boom for Geelong. Melbourne companies are said to be willing to pay their employees as time on (due to free wifi) when on board then

 

I thought this is a Brisbane thread. WTH Geelong is doing here?

 

After 35 pages you expect these sort of things

 

Ouch, I did not notice that it is the Brisbane thread, thought it was Geelong/Mel. My bad, follow too many threads .

 

This is not a Brisbane thread.
Its a "Why hasn't Brisbane boomed" thread.

Thus, people may start comparing Brisbane to anywhere else and point out why other places might be performing better/better locations to buy

 

You know Sunshine is a suburb of Melbourne, right?

 

Also a suburb of Brisbane though

 

Sydney and Melbourne.
There's many suburbs.

Buy or build a different product.
Many other properties that aren't 4 bed 2 bath cookie cutter homes.

These are international cities with huge infrastructure projects that will bring further growth for the long term.

 

Yes, Sydney and Mel are the only 2 proper international cities. All other Australian cities are essentially country towns. However, even country towns can and do have growth that surpasses the international cities.
This is not an easy question to answer as there are just too many intricacies and factors in both the international cities and the country towns alike.

 

I think it might be too late to buy in Geelong.

 

I disagree, the 5 year average growth rate is only a little over 6% per annum. You'd typically expect it to hit double figures before it cools.