Howard Marks Memo from Oaktree Capital

Here here!

Ultimately, its a journey for each of us with very many moving parts. There can be no certain outcomes, only probabilities.

 

This is rational expectation (weight of money into alternatives) destroying Alpha......should not be surprised.

 

Yeah this is an interesting outcome, thats for sure.

The last performance figures I’d seen had Yale trouncing the averages, but in a large part due to allocating to some of that stuff a bit earlier than everyone else. Swensen obviously wrote the book and then gave everyone his secret sauce – no surprise to see the edge competed away.

 

Yeah thats right. Bogles stock portfolio will look strong again when they run this year. However, its swings and round abouts here and I wouldnt pay too much heed to rolling 10 year periods. Given the resources on hand (and relationships), the very largest endowments absolutely should do better than stock/bond index strategies over the very long term. The mistake is punters thinking that they have access to the same/similar resources and should try and ape their style.