How much will brisbane cheapies go up this year ?

when Mt Druitt took of in the mid 20 teens, how quickly did it go from 250’s upwards ?

So if they’re selling in the mid 600’s , suggests there’s a way to go for

cliff

 

Run of the mill Mt Druitt stuff isn't that high yet, but will get there the way things are going.

 

It went up rapidly on all of mine and distinctly recall prices were going up $1200 per week on average when I did the math's back then in late 2013. In the last 4 months its gone up 5% on average

 

Melbourne didn’t have an extended lockdown ? Weird dream I had

 

From what I know by talking to ppl who invested there in the last cycle that it boomed aggressively from alot of investors from Sydney & Melbourne, and the common denominator was because it was so cheap.

Since 2014 investors and inparticular buyer agents have been buying in Logan & Ipswich as what happened in the last cycle. So many ppl invested there already and more going in plus the additional dwellings being built makes me question if history will repeat. The ppl I know that invested there are looking to get out when they make a decent amount of money, and I wonder how many others are thinking the same.

 

same thing happened last cycle in Brisbane and Mt Druitt .

The informed people buy earlier when the market is down . MOST people don’t plan ahead .
The type of people who plan ahead are on property chat .

I’ll be very surprised if it doesn’t happen as the underlying driver is human emotion and that doesn’t change

cliff

 

We all expected Brisbane to boom 6 years ago and we were all wrong.

But right now with most of Sydney @ three-million-dollars, surely we can't be wrong for much longer? I mean the next step here is for us to be freaking committed. You're a doctor - you can admit me, right?

 

Many ppl thought the same as you hence why they bought since 2014 expecting Logan/Ipswich to follow and it didn’t.

Don’t get me wrong it will grow but it won’t double like last boom within 24 months and from a low base.

What do you think the Brisbane median will get to and by when roughly?

 

So far Brisbane has started taking moving on two occasions but external factors have stopped it . First the banking changes and then at the beginning of 2020

In the poll I went for the > 50 % and that’s in a year .

I think it will outperform people’s expectations for the various reasons I’ve stated earlier in the thread .

cliff

 

I've read what you have said and one thing you may or may not have missed is the fact that the 2000's boom in Mt Druitt started of with Sydney median being $289k in 1999 and Mt druitt satellite suburbs were 70k average, so the multiplier of 4. Same multiplier for Goodna/Logan in 2003 with Brisbane 240k median

2010 Sydney 624k median Mt Druitt satellites 180k and multiplier of 3.5 times
2020 Brisbane 559k median Logan/Goodna satelities 200k with an multiplier of 2.5 times

Mt Druitt last cycle had the opportunity to double due to easy lending, strong yields etc
Logan/Goodna/Ipswich does not have the multiplier on its side nor easy lending

Like yourself I follow cycles and look at history and make the comparisons. So as of today I don't see it as mentioned in the above reasons.

 

Brisbane cheapies are one of the last places you can still get a relative bargain in Australian real estate. In my mind there here is nearly zero chance they won't outperform at some point in the imminent future.

You can pick up freestanding houses on large blocks with good yields for well under the price to build something new equivalent. At this rate soon you won't even be able to buy the structural timber and other materials needed to build something similar.

 

Does this count if you bought the property for 200k 10 years ago. But now the land valuation comes back at 200k. Is that buying for land value?

 

11 Bass Court, Redbank Plains | Property History & Address Research | Domain

has to be a bargain of the year.

 

Subdividable
Cast flow +ve
Prices of the 2000's
cheaper than bare land
OK house
cant be a bad buy this one

 

Looks a good deal . Some times there's a story behind the price . I rang up check the price on one sale and it was an " in-house " sale so not a true reflection of market value .

Cliff

 

Relative to what? Yeh the suburb medians in Logan should all grow around 50% and not as much as last cycle.

Not a fair comparison as your building a brand new home in todays prices and to be fair you would have to do a full renovation of equivalent quality.

Springfield will outperform ipswich and logan other than the good parts of it.

 

Huh? Had trouble following the post.

Springfield is in Ipswich? Also it is between Logan and Ipswich City. So claims it will 'outperform' are hardly likely.

 

Maybe central Springfield will do OK, but I find it hard to imagine the newer parts further out will. Have they managed to round up some developers with deep pockets to help finish it off, last I heard there was still about 75% of the land yet to be developed?

 

Each sentence was a response to the two paragraphs and last sentence was a statement of my observations and thoughts.

 

Yes you have to purchase in the right spot. One particular spot was a surprise to me of how much the houses were there.