WA How much is Perth moving south?

how is the commercial lending space like now? is it harder now too?

 

I'm not sure, I don't do much commercial, however comm is a pretty different ball game so I'd guess possibly not .

 

I'd seen on another forum @Shadow predicted Perth median to hit $1m in 2021. Interesting to hear his view as he predicted Sydney median to hit $1m by now as well 8 years ago

 

Mining in Perth started to tank at the end of 2011 and it took two years till it was official. Companies in Sydney/ Melbourne providing services to mining companies in WA started to lay off workers in 2012-2013.

However, as you said markets within markets, prices in some suburbs grew rapidly in last 2-3 years, in double digits when the downturn was beginning. Not sure if it has something to do with AUD or serious investors with big pockets bought it at fair prices for development.

Are you able to provide data/link on the last two property cycles for Perth. I did some search and found the below chart only.

 

G'day @Mike Valetta....did you play international cricket for Australia?

 

I won't post charts not my thing and if you research SS and PC there will be charts on this I am sure, I can only provide my experience during this time as I played in both these boom/rising markets.

All I know is if we have demand which is greater than supply we have the ingredient for a boom. Check out SS post on Perth listings, this will give you an idea. average/balanced market For property listing in Perth Is Around 12,000 properties listing during 2012-13 got as low as around 7000, shortage of stock.....boom

Perth property boom, 2001/2006 Dec/2007 (resi/commercial/industrial, fueled by mining boom, population growth

Perth boom cycle 2012-2014, fueled by FHB, 500k then sub 750k, deve sites, unfortunately upper end remained flat

Now Perth is a declining market, have not looked recently but I think we may have around 14,000 properties on market, wheels have turned, supply increasing, too much stock.

 

You mean supply increasing, not demand?

 

yep, that's it, typo, just changed it.
Market falling and most definitely SUPPLY INCREASING.

 

Hi,
Perth is going to struggle for some time...employment rate is heading south and now not only miners are feeling the heat but even companies who work within the mining industry.

 

The service providers to the mining industry are the ones hit the hardest (unless of course the mining companies operating with a cost base higher than the market price).

 

Very true.... There where so many business that where created around the mining industry.

 

Very curious to gauge the thoughts of others watching Perth. I have been monitoring inner south east/east (Rivervale, Belmont, Bayswater, Carlisle etc), watching the huge influx of small apartment blocks coming to market, prices heading south quickly. I would expect this to be prolonged as more come to market - I'm also expecting to see some projects get shelved for a while should they not get enough OTP support. Case in point, I've watched one development drop the price of a finished 1 bedder 10k, then 20k and now offering a 5k cashback still with no bites.

Also hello... first post here, long time SS lurker.

 

Apartments and houses are two totally different markets.
Are you following apartments more so?

 

I've been watching the apartment market out of curiosity more than anything. It's interesting watching this unfold.

To a lesser extent I have been looking at stand alone housing in the above areas + embleton/maylands/bassendean/ashfield - mainly front subbed lots with older homes requiring reno but think prices have a little way to move yet. No over supply with these but probably not a huge demand at present either.

Anyone care to share thoughts on the broader market? Just another observation, our business sold the office we were in, in East Perth (old house zoned for commercial) in December, I believe the new owners are still without a tenant. Ouch.

 

A big retail/showroom just got leased out on Charles Street North Perth. It was sold about 1.5 years ago and vacant all that time!

 

Is that the old music shop near the bp?

If so there were heaps of enquiries, myself included. Some of the council restrictions on use and lack of parking were the main reasons it was empty for so long, it wasnt purely the market

 

Yes, this is true.
When the primary industries are doing it tough, the service providers get hit hard. Can't have a sustainable business if your customers are getting smashed.
Saw this is bit in brisbane last yr- the coal miners -BMA, peabody, Anglo American etc got whacked and all their service providers greatly reduced hiring as a result. It's better now that some of these service providers have found newer markets, cuatomers, products, services etc...but still not quite out of the hole yet.
Perth and Adelaide (manufacturing ) are two that come to mind where the service providers havnt replaced lost business to a significant enough degree.

 

Hi MTR, Any pearls of wisdom on why melbourne boomed 2006/7 and 2010. can relate to 2010 as interest rates came down/fhb etc but no idea about 2006 one.

 

I bought in Melbourne in 2007 and there was a bit of a boom around that time. I don't really know why. All I know is that out of Perth, Sydney and Melbourne, Melbourne had the best value for money by far. Perhaps other investors were also attracted to the low prices? Was that the end of mining boom mark 1? I seem to remember a lot of people were moving from Perth back to Melbourne around that time and prices seemed to go up at the same time. Possible?

 

Cottesloe is looking awfully tempting