How much does Hong Kong tell us about what's about to happen here?

We often talk about how Sydney is a leading indicator for what happens in Brisbane and Melbourne.

But it makes me think about how much of an advance look Hong Kong gives us.

I remember in about 2009 all my Hong Kong friends kept talking about mainland Chinese were coming in and buying up a lot of supplies. "Tourism" grew exponentially, there was no shortage of photos of Chinese coming into HK with huge suitcases and loading up on supplies. Baby milk powder was one of them. A year or two later and it starts happening here.

A few years later I was told the same thing about property in HK. Not long after, Sydney boomed and Chinese money started flowing in pretty fast.

Hong Kong in many ways is very similar to Australia. It's an open, robust market with a modern legal system - a safe place to invest.

It makes me wonder what other leading indicators there are that we should be paying attention to? What is going on there now that could be a precursor to what's about to happen here? Is HK a bit of a crystal ball for us?

 

So what is going on there now?

 

Is there a Mt Druitt equivalent in HK?

If so, what are the boges doing over there? burn outs outside Chan Diners? mooning, with their mates, the passing ferries in the harbour? watching Enter The Dragon and practicing a few moves on a train before being truncheoned?

Then crashing out in a 3m x 2m (3/2/1) unit.?

To be honest. I'm a little skeptical of HK being a barometer for Oz.

 

I think you got the unit size wrong, that sounds like a house

There was some show on one of the asian countries, it showed people who live in a space about the size a submariner gets.

On a side note, I see they have a bunch of units in Mel just waiting for these people to migrate that are 30m2 in total....now wonder they have trouble settling on these things.

 

Why Hong Kong!

Why not Vancouver, or Shanghai, or even San Francisco?

Hard to see how any other city in the world relates directly to Australian prices except in very general terms.
Marg.

 

Hong Kong is a special administrative region of China. It is a tiny land area with large population. I find it hard to draw any parallel to Australia.

That said I invest in HK, but through a listed property fund on SGX.

 

I see some parallels Hong Kong and Sydney...
1. Limited land. Sydney has some land restrictions but Hong Kong wins this though, hands down.
2. Desirablility for mainlanders to own there. Yes... but demands in Hong Kong much more than Sydney. Because of geography.
3. More freedom for people.
4. Very busy economically. Yes. Both finance centres.
5. Geographically in or near Asia. Yes. Hong Kong wins... half the world's population lives nearby. Sydney's "close", but not so close.

That's about it? I can't see too much else.

 

China booming -> Chinese buy HK property up -> HK investors get rich -> rush to buy into Sydney, to diversify or hide assets -> Sydney Boom.

and vice versa.

Economy wise, any downturn will hit both HK and Aus together. HK is basically part of China now so will feel any impacts pretty immediately. Aus may lag a bit as commodity prices take some time to fall.

 

Sydney land area is about 12,000 sq kilometres. Hong Kong is 719, and the population in HK is about 50% greater than Sydney.

The only thing Sydney is close to in Asia is timezone.

 

Im surprised more people dont find parallels between Canada and Australia. Resource rich countries with medium population with most people living in just several major cities.

 

I think they a probably a bit more conservative over there, as the VB Logo Tattoo Ratio is severely skewed to Oz.

And they probably drive a bit better. Case in point:-

Dash Cam Owners Australia

 

Whao..... see that bike rider go flying!

 

As per @radson above, economics wise at least, Australia and Canada are very similar. Even population wise and land wise.

https://country-facts.findthedata.com/compare/31-87/Canada-vs-Australia

 

I dont understand why investors stating Sydney has limited land? Plenty of new estates in south west
Syd is not land locked, its a nonsense

Comparing HK to Syd like comparing apples to pears

 

Agree, similar also in:
- Canada cities also have significant geographic separation
- much of the land is desert (or in Canada case permafrost)
- enormous coastlines

They have also have experienced a recent housing boom, largely contained to only two cities. Vancouver and Toronto.

There are many, many differences too.

 

Exactly, terrible comparison, no need for to be so dramatic.

Tiny island with millions of people and no room to grow vs a country the size of USA with 8,% of its population

Somehow I get the feeling that we may have a couple more options in terms of planning how to handle the growth

 

Yeah south west is not land locked but bloody hell its taking most land 1.5-2 yrs to rego the councils and developers are that slow so no matter what they do, unless everything is rezoned to resi and then developed and sold asap, it's gonna be slow releases for a while.

 

Also lots of differences. HK has no CGT, has 1.7% interest rates, has 70 million visitors.

 

And a little off topic... HK airbnb guests will generally think my apartment in Darlington is positively spacious! Whereas I've had 1 or 2 other guests who say my apartment is not big enough for 4 guests. It's all depends on where they come from imo.

In any case it's significantly larger than a typical hotel room or studio and includes laundry facilities, car space and has 3 balconies. Go outside and there's some parks to enjoy. Cannot complain.