How many more years of pain for the Perth market?

Data for that would be hard to come by. There is a lot of easy to find 10yr data which would take it back to 2008/9
I suspect it would be some blue chip suburbs which didn't tend to rise much in the 13/14 boom. I would expect Claremont, Mosman Park, Mt Lawley, Dalkeiths, Mt Pleasant, Salter Point, Alfred Cove might be on there

 

Noticed how the Perth weekend papers ignored the lastest Coredata statistics showing that the median price in Perth is not only still falling, but the February figures is one of the worst on record?

Inexplicably, the Sunday Times instead has focused on some of the leafy suburbs that have increased in value, of course with the obligatory quotes from real estate groups that the worst is behind us and good times are coming - just as they said over the past few years.

The problem with the Perth papers is that they are heavily reliant on the real estate industry for advertising and sponsorship revenue which explains the bias and lack of accurate news.

 

I thought those "rivers of gold" dried up with the duopoly of domain and realestate websites.

 

Dead giveaway is number 10 on perth best 12 monthly growth suburbs according to the Sunday times which comes in at 2.2%
That leaves about another 200-250 suburbs below 2.2%.

 

[QUOTE="chooke, post: 675201, member: 815"The problem with the Perth papers is that they are heavily reliant on the real estate industry for advertising and sponsorship revenue which explains the bias and lack of accurate news.[/QUOTE]
Local media coverage of the Perth market is pretty useless, with the possible exception of the ABC.

It just seems to be a platform for RE spruikers and there is no honest analysis of the actual market and it's drivers. Threads like this are a better source of current info than anything you'll get in The West.

 

The "New North" rehab and R40 rezoning did what it set out to do though.

 

still some pain to come I expect. I bought a block in Busselton in 2006 and built a rental on it in 2011. If I were to sell today i'd still face a capital loss

 

Yes, pretty hard hit here
Good time to buy holiday homes SW

 

the radio real estate cheerleaders from 6pr (9 am-10 am Saturday) are gone too ,they are telling the public sit tight for the next leg up in Perth ,what scam this really is,because of media a lot of people bought in as well

 

People who base their decisions to populist sentiment haven't done their DD well. They listen to media during boom to buy and listen to media at flat times to buy, missing opportunities...

 

is the pain over now in Perth,can I jump in to buy now or wait even longer

 

I would be waiting if its a buy and hold

 

Depends on what you are buying. #Perth10k will do well. Shiny FHB stock not so much regardless of the location.

 

I am assuming we are talking buy and hold strategy. Perth could do well, but its all just guess work, there is no evidence that the market is doing well today, on the contrary its the opposite.

Whichever way you paint it......Its still not a rising market, Perth is still price sensitive and that goes for desirable locations within 10km.
My guess is that in the first instance it will be houses not units that will see the future growth when market improves? Therefore you will need deep pockets to hold this stock. Servicing debt in a flat/falling markets does not cut it for me. We are talking perhaps 4% gross yields....???

When I see a change in the market then I may get tempted to jump in, until then I just dont see the point.

What makes it even higher risk proposition today is the liklihood of a change of government, where they are proposing some serious changes that will impact on investors negatively and market may soften further?? we Just don't know.

If anyone on this thread can provide details of a purchase which is attractive because of the yields or the ability to access equity within a 6 months time frame I am all ears.
I doubt it will be a buy and hold strategy.

 

In general no, the pain is not over IMO. It depends on the stock though. Inner ring Perth is doing well if that's your style and you have deep pockets. I follow City of Belmont and there are not really good deals around now. I reckon there were better deals last year. It's worth keeping an eye on if that's what you are looking for.

 

Buy and hold is only a problem when:
1. Overpay for something
2. Needing serious cash injection every month after month.

4+% yields on good quality stock with dev optinos is not that hard to come by even in #Perth3k let alone #Perth10k.

Not that long ago, I helped a friend close a deal in a decent pocket of Gosnells with 6+% yields, long term tenants and subdivision options for low $200ks. At 88% LVR, he is hardly paying anything out of pocket and that includes paying down the principal part of the loan. I am not recommending Gosnells but just goes to show that what works for one may not work for the next person.He is a buy-and-hold/hope type investor with a low risk appetite. He'll do well with that one.

I honestly don't see a reason why a buy-and-hold strategy would not work in the current market. Again all comes down to what/where someone is buying.

6 month time frame strategies are not for the average investor but I'll tell you one (without disclosing too many details).

A deal by someone I know. Large corner lot with an OK house on it. Buy, demo, 4 green titles lots with 20%+ margin on total costs (purchase, stamp, demo, subdivision, headworks, sales agent, GST). Now, not saying those kind of deals are easy to find but deffo happened. One hell of of an outcome though.

Come on @MTR you can smell a deal from a mile away, surely it's not that hard for you to find something that meets your criteria?

ALP changes (if/when they pass the senate) are gonna hit the eastern markets harder than Perth (if there is even much left to hurt).

 

Inner city is doing well, but the product in demand are period homes, development sites.
Caveat... prices are still not where they were at peak in 2007.... hence, price sensitive.
$1.1-1.2M flying out the door if priced right

 

Was it this one

3 Roy Street, Mount Lawley, WA 6050

I definately like the idea of on selling land in good blue chip areas, where land is scarce. Huge demand for these and buyers will pay a premium.

Hard to source. If you can add value and money in the game, then why not.

 

Not that one. Sorry, can't reveal for his privacy reasons. Hard to source for sure but not impossible.

 

The reality is many who have been playing in the Perth market will today be sitting on negative equity, unless they sold down prior to peak.

Question is.... Do you feel lucky today?