How many more years of pain for the Perth market?

my house in Kelmscott was rented last yr for $550/wk, now advertised at $490 and nothing.

 

NG ?

 

At $380 per week, mine will cashflow positive.

Of course I am hoping for more because I have a better yard, bigger rooms and two living areas.

 

Not good.

 

I have a property in Osborne Park that rented for $345 pw in 2014-15, $280 pw in 2015-16 and now vacant for 9 weeks despite reducing the rent further to $200 pw. It seems that every potential tenant in Perth is leaving the state in droves.

 

All these stories about the rental market are highly disturbing. Think I need to reconsider my impending Perth purchase, and perhaps move to Perth so I can rent a trophy home for pittance.

 

I have just got back from extended period away from Perth and I must say the difference is staggering! You can go into the CBD and one would assume its a public holiday as, there is just no one around. There is a lot more homeless folk around too I have noticed. I left the start of 2014 when the downturn was just starting. We were trying to buy a house in 2013 and it was virtually impossible, everything was sold before we got back from work and then when we were in Perth people were bidding up prices at a crazy rate! We ended up just giving up and decided to do some travel. Now, we can rent a fantastic place in the city for a very good price...it is a shame still about the 13 dollar beers still though...

 

Ok I voted 4-7 years.

I am also going on to be buying a property in South Karrinyup soon. Paperwork and releasing finances is getting done. Buying for $850k valuation came in at $970k - $1.01 million.

The change of the Nationals leader is a good thing.

Look the biggest problem in Perth is the mass of stupid people selecting really stupid and backward politicians. Perth can immediately turn itself into a boom town if they had half a brain.
They need to get rid of this state debt by threatening the Feds they will leave Australia and become their own country. When Perth was contributing all the wealth for Australia for decades nobody now remembers that. If they can't do that then they need to innovate.

Imagine advertising in China that university for Chinese students who's parents invest in western Australian property and business get free education at UWA. Imagine a 7% tax rate and free land for companies relocating their robotics company or high tech software company to Perth. Imagine starting the most elite mathematics and computer science programs in Perth. Imagine not selling some of the iron ore for royalties but using it to make the highest grade steel ever and building something with it. Imagine building the finest aeroplanes, ships and craft using alloys manufactured in Australia. Imagine a stock exchange that is not taxed like the ASX is. 7% tax and 0.5% fees is what is required. How much capital will come into Australian companies. Imagine accounting systems and standards in Australia and a brand new tax legislation that are not set up by crooks and lobbyists from English mining and agricultural companies and but by geniuses who understand how to throw out the rubbish and keep the good and make it insanely incredibly simple. Stopping the stock exchange from being a method to siphon money into a capitalist private pocket but rather into innovation and salaries for incredibly well educated and dignified people who care about themselves and everything around them. How about making it family friendly so that families can raise and educate their children to a higher standard then anywhere else in the world while giving their children a beautiful childhood spent with their parents and other kids in a warm and close society, not the isolated bubble we have. How about forcing the lazy boozing, rooting, partying dole Bludgers to actually work hard for a living and get paid what they are really worth. I need somebody to do the gardening for $10 an hour. How about getting rid of children in supermarkets and rubbish take away food outlets and get them to do what children are supposed to be doing, playing, sports, and education. How about introducing 30 year fixed at 3% home loans with no fees and penalties if you invest other money in a massive manufacturing plant with others, or if you graduate with science and engineering and mathematics.


How about thinking differently next time you vote and not vote for the usual idiots who in 3 decades have only managed to build casinos and footy stadiums and entertainment centres.

How about thinking.

 

Imagine building coastal hyperloop or a freeway that you can travel at 200 km/ hour between kalbarri , Perth, Banbury, Margaret river and Albany.

 

Baahahaha rofl you're the best!
Go karrinyup! For those playing along at home it's the ONLY suburb in Perth to buy in. Yes only one. It's the best, the best! Nothings ever gonna keep it down!

So i take it you were in Perth last election?

I don't think anyone would be threatened by WA wanting to become it's country, there's not much money around. And the half wit politicians would realise they need support from the enemy over east for the next few years.

One thing though i sort of agree is some one needs to do some thinking and come up with a new plan

 

Hanson all the way!!

 

With the generous stamp duty tax free thresholds for First Home buyers in WA, it's far easier for the good tenants to leave the rent market into ownership. Large new fringe supply relative to crashing population growth. The pace of the asking rents falling right now is dare I say, alarming.

 

To me it's a chicken and egg scenario.
I don't think we'll see a housing recovery until we see a rental recovery. When the rental vacancy gets lower the rents increase which will lure the investors back into the market as their feasibilities begin to stack up again.
It is natural that as people stop buying due to rental and buying market doldrums that the market will eventually dry up on its own and then we will have a shortage again. Part of the issue now is due to people deciding 2 years ago that the vacancies were low and moved into the market and produced too much stock. There is no real way to control this but to be aware that vacancies are not always that low and those prices were 'save for a rainy day' type prices and not normal. Historically you should do feasibilities on a predicted high 3 low 4% vacancy rate. Then the pain people are feeling now wouldn't be so bad. The pain is hurting because people because they thought the 2012-14 rates were normal and they weren't

With or without the mining construction boom that is how it works. We are all miniature oil barons who move in and out of the market as the oil price (rental yield) goes up and down.

I personally don't think the market will go down much more over the next 12-18mths but I don't see it going up much either. Just some natural stagnation. I had hoped towards the end of this year would see some improvement but not seeing any signs of that, cautiously optimistic about 2017

 

good post @Westminster

 

property markets are all about supply vs demand, its that simple, problem with Perth is that sales volume has increased 40% this year, there in an oversupply so while we have this oversupply we will continue to see prices either fall, go sideways or stagnate.

unless we have a major shift in our economy I can not see stock moving and this is the problem. Market confidence is suffering and when this happens people sit on their hands, they don't buy. Also we companies are closing doors and people are losing their jobs does not help unfortunately.

Just have to take a drive to Malaga, many vacant industrial sheds, owners offering xx free rent, its a sign of the times. We wont recover over night, this is major, our economy in WA has had 2 consecutive deficits. Don't wish to be negative but I don't want to make it fluffy either I want to be frank and honest.

MTR

 

Unfortunately I cant see a change in fortunes for the Perth property market in the short to mid term, sales volumes are declining, vacancy rates increasing, rents and prices falling, population stagnant / declining and supply continuing to increase as developers finalise projects that were started in better times. I think it will take 5 years plus to work through these issues and at some point the orderly price decline we have experienced may get a little disorderly - this will be a good time to revisit Perth property and dig around the market.

 

A year ago I wanted to move to Perth... )) Thank god I didn't do it. It's good to be right, sometimes...

 

Anyone know actual population stats for Perth. For all the doom and gloom, from what I can see population in still growing and will eventually lead to a rebalancing of the property market rather than capitulation.

"Perth added 70,000 residents in the year to June 2012; it was at the time the fastest growing capital city in Australia in percentage terms. Figures for the year to June 2015 show the city tracking annual growth of just 30,000. And that was nine months ago. It is quite possible that Perth is now tracking annual growth of closer to 20,000. Growth, but growth at a scale of barely one-third that of the peak of the boom"

Nocookies

Population forecasts | City of Perth | forecast.id - Just for the LGA not Perth as a whole.

 

I remember reading 10 years ago that by now Perth's population would be bigger than Brisbane, the way it's going it will be lucky to be bigger than Adelaide in a decade from the sounds of these stories of 200-300pw rental drops.

 

@radson this is the last big dataset but it's not recent enough 3218.0 - Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2014-15