How many more years of pain for the Perth market?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Citycat88, 12th Aug, 2016.

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How many more years of pain for the Perth market?

Poll closed 23rd Jan, 2020.
  1. 1 year

    45 vote(s)
    15.3%
  2. 2-3 years

    129 vote(s)
    43.9%
  3. 4-7 years

    60 vote(s)
    20.4%
  4. 8+ years - similar to the GFC in some other countries

    34 vote(s)
    11.6%
  5. Indefinite - a Japan style asset bubble collapse for decades to come

    26 vote(s)
    8.8%
  1. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    Wait, Watch and see.

    Perth is going to be booming soon.
    2017 will be the turning point.
    Collapse and then rising up from the ashes.
    This next WA state election is going to be the most important election there ever was in Australian politics.
    You will see how sick and tired people are of all the monopolies, mafias and corrupt politicians serving a corrupt monarchy.
    You will see people voting peacefully for a change that has been coming for a hundred years.

    The republic.

    Do you want your own country and being able to decide for yourselves as a people? Or do you want to be ruled by politicians serving their London masters?
     
  2. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    when is the next WA election?
     
  3. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    wtf do you smoke? It must be some pretty good stuff!

    Either Liberal will win, or Labor will win. And no one in WA will really give two shites either way.

    Blacky
     
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  4. DaveyB

    DaveyB Well-Known Member

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    China will own all of Australia next year, but Perth will boom while everyone else busts......Ald sure even you are sick of typing your drool, though on occasion it is entertaining.
     
  5. Tristan Kirkham

    Tristan Kirkham New Member

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    The Housing top 100 numbers for 2015/16 are in.


    Overall the housing 100 builders accounted for some 30% of all new dwellings starts during the 15/16 financial year this number is down 32% from the year before, we are starting to see a trend in terms of market share. The total revenue earned by the Housing 100 during 15/16 is estimated $17.78 billion. This is an increase of 6.6% on the previous year.

    WA top companies and all project builders, all had numbers down on the 14/15 financial years. BGC came out on top from WA with 4,049 starts down from 4,834. Dale Alcock ABN Group had a massive fall from 4,608 down to 3,599 starts. The JWH group was much the same in terms of % down to 1,099 from 1,516. Pindan 1,459, down to 1,040. Summit Homes Group 961 down from 1,126.

    The main housing activity was in detached houses, making up 73% with Semi detached dwellings at 8%, and Multi units at 19%

    NHBB expects to see starts and particularly multi units continue to decline down in the eastern states. Darwin and Perth are on the investor radars, as prices are back to where they were last decade. The old investor rule, buy low and sell high, Perth’s time for building is coming. and the smart ones will get in now.
     
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  6. Ald

    Ald Well-Known Member

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    Yes of course.

    And if you want to be rich buy with your own money. Buy private and manage the property yourself.
     
  7. theperthurbanist

    theperthurbanist Well-Known Member

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    Confidence low in WA property industry
    12 Jan 2017Property Council Research

    Business confidence in the WA property sector remains low according to the latest ANZ/Property Council Survey.

    The ANZ/Property Council Survey index for WA moved down six points from 104 to 98 for the first quarter of 2017, returning to earlier levels following a slight jump for the final quarter of 2016. The Australia-wide property confidence index saw a slight increase for the December 2016 to the March 2017 quarter, from 130 to 132.

    “These results confirm what we know – that it’s a long, hard slog back after the end of the mining construction boom,” Property Council WA Executive Director, Lino Iacomella said.

    “There is however some room for optimism in the survey with retail and retirement living sectors bucking the trend with positive growth expectations. This can be explained by the growing focus on delivering diverse housing choices for our ageing population and continued investment in shopping centre redevelopment.

    “As focus turns to the March State election, now is the opportune time for all the major parties to commit to a budget stimulus package that puts forward achievable and sensible policy measures which will empower the property industry.

    “Policy measures should be job creating and community building initiatives which will build confidence in the WA property industry and allow it to become the growth engine of the State. We believe there should be a focus on stamp duty concessions for off-the-plan purchases, seniors downsizing, further trading hours reforms, and linking the State’s asset recycling program to funding infrastructure.

    “With the correct policy setting in place, the property industry can facilitate growth and deliver innovations in property developments that create a diverse range of housing and jobs, and make communities sustainable and affordable.”

    SOURCE: Confidence low in WA property industry
     
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  8. Mike A

    Mike A Well-Known Member

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    haha thanks blacky enjoyed that. agreed sounds like someone who wrote the Trump campaign speech.
     
  9. Air_Bender

    Air_Bender Well-Known Member

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  10. PerthPadawan

    PerthPadawan Well-Known Member

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    For those who are following sentiment or trends in Perth, or work in the industry here, what is your current take on the market?

    I recall in 2016 being told that 2017 was the bottom, but here we are in March and from my limited field of vision it seems sentiment has not turned at all, and maybe even deteriorated. Jobs continue to be shed and no large construction projects are on the horizon. Particularly shocking is the continued rise in retail vacancies I've noticed. Seemingly prime spots like Mount Lawley have months-long retail vacancies right on the "strip".

    However, there seem to be relatively few sellers. Are sellers hoping to hold on for the cycle to turn? Has the pain of lost jobs and low yields yet to squeeze sellers into action?

    Thanks for your insight.

    PP
     
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  11. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Officially we have avoided a recession. In reality, many businesses are hurting. Housing sales in some areas are good but prices are down. Rents of course remain very low but people who are prepared to list at the right price are finding tenants.
     
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  12. PerthPadawan

    PerthPadawan Well-Known Member

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    I attended an auction today in Cottesloe, 400m2+ 3 bed young family/downsize house. Well attended but few real bidders. It was sold but only after the winning bidder had a chat with the REA to tack on an extra $50k.

    General vibe was relaxed and no pressured bidding between buyers. I reckon curious neighbors made up 50% of the audience.

    Anyone else with recent insights?

    PP
     
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  13. andrew_t

    andrew_t Well-Known Member

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    I am currently holidaying in Perth from Sydney and upon arrival we had to queue up for ages at Avis to pickup our rental car...If anyone is looking for a job in WA hit up Avis they need people!
     
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  14. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    You are correct about Mt Lawley, a sign of the times, business' are struggling and we have a lame duck running the State.

    However, what I am finding is some properties are flying out the door, dependent on the product.

    My g/friend just sold a property in North Perth, excellent location, $1.2M sold within 1 week cash offer and there were other buyers interested in the property. Perhaps tightly held areas if priced correctly are flying out the door????
     
  15. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I have seen plenty of properties move fast in many areas if the price is right.
     
  16. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Close to city?
     
  17. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Bayswater, Bassendean, Belmont, Cloverdale, Kewdale, Rivervale. So reasonably close. The market is very price sensitive though.
     
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  18. PerthPadawan

    PerthPadawan Well-Known Member

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    When this occurs, were the prices back at 2009, 2011 or 2013 levels? Or did they have certain characteristics like recent renos?
     
  19. Blacky

    Blacky Well-Known Member

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    South Karrinyup?
     
  20. PerthPadawan

    PerthPadawan Well-Known Member

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    That's no longer a suburb of Perth, its a free standing metropolitan city much like Sydney.

    It really needs a separate thread all of its own.

    PP
     
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