How are the regionals doing?

yeah I agree, assuming all factors are equal as last time (obviously not possible) than according to my research it should be regionals after the metro once metro becomes unaffordable,

the fact is that minijng regionals behave totally differently, they are totally reliant on mining, so market forces might have a tiny tiny affect on their behavior

thats why personally buying into a mining town that has collapased is a total gamble.

 

CoreLogic June Quarter Regional Report released

I found this a good read on the regional areas with 12 month median price growth numbers

 

'I'm shaking my head': Hot Toronto housing market driving prices up in small town Ontario

Maybe we can take a cue from what's happening in Toronto as reference for Sydney and Melbourne? Perhaps it's time to look beyond our capital cities now..

 

OK so it seems like sydney has come off the oboil
. Melbourne still seems to be quite hot.

So cycle wise it should be regional next.....

How had this gone down in the past.
When prices are falling it usually means the economy is doing bad... How can regional do well?

 

Top 5 suburbs in Australia for price growth

 

One way regionals can get a bit of puff is if there is an influx of retirees cashing in on their rising values in like Melbourne and head for places like Ballarat or Bendigo and live happily until their remaining cash runs out and have to move to the next 3rd tier town after that

Move to Adelaide / Brisbane or regionals of the bigger city? I am sure some demographer has mapped some projections on this.

 

Seemed like the best thread to post this on...

High-rise apartment towers now set to be a feature of regional cities

 

These high rise towers all have a few common trait -

1. They are all located near to waters. Gosford, Wollongong, Cairns, Geelong etc. Some of these buildings might be deliberately built high to enable residents to enjoy the seaview.
2. They are all the BIG Boys of Regional towns/cities.
3. They do not have much heritage buildings nor are they well known for that in Australia.

Other towns like Ballarat, Bendigo, Castlemaine, Kyneton etc will have a hard time seeing the above happening because there are still ample lands there for building of conventional houses or smaller units. There is also no need for buildings to be real high as there's no "water view" or "sea breeze" for anyone to enjoy. Lastly, even if the council allow, there should be oppositions from the locals in having "monster buildings" built right in the CBD as this will distort the town or city.

But in all, it's a good move for the cities involved.

 

Which regional towns have population growth, a diversified economy, expanding infrastructure investment, and proximity to a major city>?

 

Ballarat is one example - pop growth 2% 2015/16, diversified economy, massive infrastructure investment underway and roughly an hour from Melbourne.
Geelong & Bendigo would also meet that criteria and that's just Victoria.

 

Brisbane?

 

Toon- seems everything within an hour of Sydney is,,, still in Sydney and worth the GDP of a small pacific nation, but Melbourne still has affordable satellite cities.

 

'Experts' sold us on Wallan Victoria. We used most of our super and also borrowed money to buy a house that was under construction. Worth less than we paid for if now however it has been tenanted since day one earning 5%. We are newbies at this.

 

I bought in Bendigo 3 years ago, a couple of existing houses in pretty good locations near to the city. I did not over pay them and felt they were good buys. Recently I did a valuation and was told they were worth lesser than what I paid for. This means the market has declined over the years.

Worse, rental market is weak now. The yield is around 5.5% which is not too much better than a Melbourne suburb if I had bought there then.

Many investors here have been hurt like me. Some disillusioned ones have sold up their houses at a loss and moved elsewhere. It is now possible to buy an old but reasonable-condition house, 1.5km from the city for around $250,000. Compared to the other regionals - Geelong and Ballarat, it actually fared the worst over the last 4 years.

So what do I think of its future? Is this the end of Bendigo?

I feel house prices here might dip further till next year due to the oversupply and the poor sentiments. But this should stop thereafter. Houses are already cheap here and can't go any much lower. The council has also been mindful of the devastating effects of the land oversupply issue and has reduced the pace of rezoning.

The latest census revealed that the population of Bendigo in 2015 - 16 grew by a staggering 4%. That's tremendous growth, double of Melbourne as a Whole!! Very few Regionals, other than mining towns in the past can achieve such growth. So fundamentally, Bendigo is still a fast growing city, attractive as a place of work and stay for Australians. This is a very good impetus for growth.

So for investors who have spare cash, and looking for stable returns with lesser volatility, Bendigo could be a place one can consider putting money in down the road.

 

Would there be a lot of land around Bendigo, keeping a lid on price growth? No supply issues...

Edit: just saw what you wrote on council slowing rezoning. My thoughts. I think Geelong is a better bet. It's coastal, still affordable and closer to Melbourne.

 

What does the 4% population growth mean in actual numbers? 1000 people? 3000 people?

I to have kept an eye on Bendigo for an IP but haven't pulled the trigger due to all the new development happening. The supply of new stock has kept CG down and the abundance of rentals hitting the market has kept returns flat.

The population increase is a huge positive though and once the supply reduces I think it we'll have a better indication of the potential of the market.

 

The 4 percent population increase in Bendigo occurred in the last One year (please see attached). In absolute numbers, that's 4400 extra people and that's a lot!

I agree fully that the over supply of houses is subduing the Bendigo market. This has also badly affected the rental market.

But if we are to just chuck these factors aside and look at the prices of houses here, they are pretty value for money. You can't find such cheap properties in Geelong or Ballarat. And Bendigo is not Morwell or Ararat where growth is non existent. Bendigo is a sought-after place as can be seen from the result of the census. It is 150km from Melbourne which is not far by Australian standards. So imagine people keep coming and if the supply side is better controlled, there will reach a point where demand exceeds supply and this should see prices of houses starting to go up.

Not going to happen soon, not in the next one year, I think. That's why my thinking that there's good buying opportunities still, no hurry. It has to be "buy and hold".

I can't really comment for Geelong as I am not very familiar with it. But from what I heard, the good areas have grown costlier the last few years and I am not sure if this growth can continue. Ballarat is also growing in house prices, albeit at a slower pace. It is afterall, closer to Melbourne than Bendigo so this gives it an advantage. Essentially it's only Bendigo, among them, that seems to be still struggling currently.

 

150 km is not a comfortable commuting distance, it's a long drive and the train, while reasonably relaxing will still take well over 90 minutes from doorstep to doorstep at work if commuting.

But then it's a large regional city which has it's own economy, and many people living in Bendigo will live and work there. I'd like to think that there'll be an kind of spillover as people, perhaps seeing how expensive Melbourne is and commute times to a job in the capital may be, they might take stock and buy a nice house in a smaller city, work locally instead and have a place that's much more affordable and with a commute that's minimal. Especially if ones' just doing a standard job that's not CBD orientated....rather a regular retail job or something. Decentralisation policies would also help...the Vic government has begun to do that with departments like Workcover, TAC and NDIS moving to Geelong, and others to Ballarat.

 

When I looked at bendigo and balarat. I felt that my research shows that potential wise. They were virtually identical. I decided to invest in balarat because I'd been there as a kid.

I am not sure if bendigo has actually dropped. However i would be surprised given that balarat is rising or appears to be

Two identical type of cities close together shouldn't vary that much in my opinion

 

TMNT, I've been looking around Ballarat for my first IP for a few months now. I'm swaying towards Ballarat Central as it's within my price range and I see the security of growth there over the surrounding areas.

Can you advise what your investment property in Ballarat was? I would be keen to hear what style, condition, price, etc it was!