Housing slump "worst in decades"

Infrastructure planning is a thing. 200k people/year in one city versus 40k people/year in each city. Infrastructure cycles tend to be much longer so it'll align with that.

 

New visa could keep migrants in regional Australia
New visa could keep migrants in regional Australia

 

Rate hike from Westpac

 

Imagine the other 3 major banks to follow suit...

 

Doesn't matter if he's just warning the seat for Bill Shorten.

 

Just a matter of time. Otherwise shareholders won’t be happy.

Let’s see whether this is it or there will be a second round.

 

It's more a case of 200K a year in two cities. I still don't see how it will work. How will you force people to stay in smaller cities when the pull is so strong towards Sydney and Melb where their relatives/ compatriots and jobs are?

 

Maybe being able to work from home more would help

 

yeah comparing Australia to Japan is as useful as comparing Austria to Jamaica.

 

A two-step permanent visa where the second stage eligibility depends on fulfilling residency requirements.

 

Australia’s property turnover hits level not seen since 1990

The percentage of Australian properties being bought or sold has fallen to a 28-year low as owners become unwilling to test an increasingly "thin" market.

"New data released in Westpac's August 2018 Housing Pulse reveals housing turnover – that is the number of properties currently being sold relative to all dwelling stock – has fallen to just over 4 percent. This figure represents the lowest point the housing turnover has been since 1990."

 

Australia's housing downturn could turn into the 'longest and deepest in modern history'

 

“But with the full effect of the tightening in credit criteria and recent hikes in mortgage rates yet to be felt, we suspect this downturn will end up being both the longest and deepest with prices falling by 12% over four years.”

Sounds reasonable to me. Certainly far from the economic armageddon we have been hearing about for years.

 

Its actually going to take a lot longer than 4 years untill untill you see any sort of restrictions lifted on housing loans , because a lot of household debt needs to dissappear, that means paying of the principle of the loan.
In the first 5 years of any loan the principal is hardly touched and most of it goes into interest payments.
For many loans that are interest only it compounds the problem as the principal is never paid and more and more money needs to be sourced by the banks.
Or we all get really big pay rises, but in the era of globalization and remaining competitive, that probably wont happen.
Especially if many have to cut back on discretionary spending as interest rates rise.

 

Has the reserve bank (or whichever govt authority) actually said that? that they want levels of household debt to disappear before they recommend APRA loosen up? Makes sense just wondering what the official position was.

 

That assumes everyone is at max borrowing capacity right now. In reality, very few people are. This is a highly speculative position supported by nothing really.

 

As reported in yesterdays AFR , Aussie banks are becoming top heavy with residential mortgage loans when compared with how much money is borrowed to business.
The other issue is that high levels of household indebtedness can actually act as a drag on economic growth , according to the bank of international settlements.
Clearing up some of that debt can be done two different ways , nice and orderly like whats happening in Australia or we can do it the fast way ,Ireland and the U.S are a good example of this happening , but unfortunately can be quite devastating to some .

 

I get the impression a lot that count are ie working home buying families Hence the mortgage stress figures constantly reported and the fact that many got loans they wouldn't get now. Many that aren't at maximum are not necessarily at a stage where they have to or want to buy eg they would only be doing it a an investment But i would like to see the stats You may be right

 

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Time and again, the value investor has used this philosophy to pounce on opportunities". Warren Buffett.


Personally I am extremely excited for bigger corrections in OZ. I am not seeing massive opportunities yet. Only some fair ones. I'm gonna be super greedy when the fear gets to its max. I am setting myself up right now to benefit from any large correction in OZ in good areas.

Very exciting times.

 

I don't disagree with any of that but nothing you have stated is evidence that any of this will take longer than 4 years as claimed.